The folding screen is not Apple's next iPhone

In 2018, Mike Murphy, then deputy editor of the tech website Quartz, thought Apple killed fun.

The article's point of view is very sharp, he believes that Apple's shaping of "smartphones" is too successful, affecting the industry, making mobile phones into a boring box.

It is also believed that before the iPhone, Nokia in different shapes had more fun.

Of course, his view is limited to design and form, but ignores that smart phones are no longer limited to a hardware device, but gradually become an Internet content entrance under 4G and 5G networks.

What's on screen is what makes people keep using it, not the look and feel off-screen, unless you make the screen shape.

As a result, the folding screen has become a very hot form recently, a device can have two different sizes of screens, but also has a wider range of use scenarios, it seems to make people return to the era of changing mobile phone appearance.

From concept products to manufacturers' regular product series, folding screens only took a year or two.

▲ iPhone Flip？ Image courtesy of CNET

But Apple, as the leader of "smartphones", has not come up with its own folding screen products, it seems that as Murphy said, Apple killed fun, but this time fun refers to its own products.

It could be an iPhone, an iPad, or even a Mac

The delay in launching products does not mean that Apple "has turned a deaf ear".

In fact, the news about Apple's folding screen has been spread for two or three years, and may appear in iPhones, iPads and even Macs.

iPad Pro Fold Hypothetical image Image courtesy of Macrumors

Regarding the predictions of Apple products, there are many analysts and technology media workers who constantly follow, and their sources are nothing more than industry-related practitioners, plus some of their own speculations.

In the past, their predictions of Apple's new products were not 100% accurate, but at least the general direction was more consistent.

Only on the "folding screen", it can be described as a variety of opinions.

▲ Fold MacBook Pro, the island of spirit lights up Image from: Twitter@MajinBu

Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, expects that Apple will introduce a new folding screen iPad in the iPad product line next year, and equipped with carbon fiber hinges to reduce weight.

And said that Apple intends to rely on the "folding screen" iPad to boost iPad sales.

At the same time, DSCC analyst Ross Young is opposed, Apple is actually developing a large-screen folding device between iPad and MacBook, the size may come to 20.5 inches, as soon as 2026.

▲ MacBook Pro 16（M2 Max inside）

Mark Gurman, who has a high accuracy rate, said in the Power On podcast that Apple's current attitude towards folding screens is still "exploration", and there is no so-called listing schedule and fixed products.

This year's iPad update focuses on the iPad Pro, and the screen may be OLED and the size may be changed.

From the iPhone to the iPad to the Mac, Apple's folding screen rumors can be described as confusing.

Jony Ive deep in the supply chain Image courtesy of iMore

Remember that in the book "After Steve", before the official release of the iPhone, Apple made quite a few prototypes, from direct changes from the iPod to reopening the mold redesign.

At present, Apple may only be in the state of "prototype" for the folding screen form, or even in an earlier evaluation state, which is quite far from the real trial production.

Industry chain practitioners, sharing information with analysts, has undoubtedly caused their differences of opinion. But in fact, according to the current situation of folding screens, Apple may not enter the "folding screen".

Apple folding screen, does not exist

Why does the folding screen appear?

At the beginning, the folding screen is undoubtedly the exploration of different forms of smart phones, and due to the high cost of the screen, it has gradually become a product that many manufacturers have increased the unit price of customers.

Most of the original folding screens are around 10,000 yuan, no matter what the brand, the folding form is enough to bring attention and topicality.

Subsequently, the related industrial chain matured rapidly, and the second- and third-generation folding screen products gradually matured, becoming products for brands to show technology and strength, and naturally becoming a shortcut to "high-end".

In particular, in the context of a weak market environment, the folding screen market is extremely active and a little against the trend.

According to IDC, in 2022, 3.3 million folding screen mobile phones were shipped in the Chinese market throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 118%, a higher than expected growth rate.

The smartphone market is saturated, but the folding screen market is not. With the gradual stabilization of hinge technology, screen, and form, folding screen mobile phone technology seems to have stagnated again.

It is like a once hot VR device, after winning everyone's attention, it came to an abrupt end, and the "bottleneck period" came earlier.

At the same time, the market capacity of folding screen mobile phones only accounts for 1.2% of all smartphone markets, and the volume is still not large. For folding screen manufacturers, wanting to rely on folding screens to increase market share is a bit like a drop in the bucket.

In addition, folding screen technology is still not perfect, and the weight and fragile screen are still weaknesses. And for Apple, how to integrate the folding screen ecology into existing iOS, macOS and other platforms is also an element worth careful consideration.

Domestic Android manufacturers have made targeted optimizations in large and small screen switching and software app adaptation.

But for Apple, separate optimization is obviously not enough, Apple products need to have a complete set of linkage logic, that is, how to find a clear product positioning of folding screen devices, otherwise it is easy to get stuck between Mac and iPhone like the previous iPad.

Image courtesy of DigitalTrends

Folding screen devices are more like an extension of the iPhone (iPad) product than a new growth point.

In addition, the decisive mechanical mechanism in the folding screen is not future-oriented. For Apple, which is constantly seeking stability, it is difficult to continue to invest in a technology that seems to have no future prospects.

Folding screens are not a lifesaver

2022, for Apple, is actually a year of "adjustment".

Not only the large-scale adjustment of middle and senior personnel, but also quietly making some changes for the product. Even though iPhones and Macs have increased the delivery cycle due to supply problems, the adjustment of the iPhone 14 series and the delayed update of the MacBook Pro have undoubtedly directly affected Apple's revenue at the end of last year.

▲ The cold winter of the industry has only slowed down Apple's pace of making money Image from: Financial Times

Before Apple's earnings report, many analysts believed that last quarter's concerns about Apple's revenue may become an inflection point.

Not surprisingly, Apple's earnings report in the "holiday season" did appear to be somewhat weak, with slower growth but still generating profits of $3 billion, the second in history.

▲ Service business revenue reached a new high Image courtesy of Six Colors

Looking at it carefully, the iPhone still accounts for the majority of business revenue, but the weakness of the ordinary digital series is still down 8% year-on-year, while the new MacBook Pro missed the whole quarter, and revenue fell 29% year-on-year.

However, iPad ushered in an explosion, and revenue reached an all-time high, up 30% year-on-year.

Software services revenue captured a record $20.8 billion in revenue relative to the ups and downs of hardware, or 17.7 percent, more than the Mac and iPad combined.

Image courtesy of Techeela

Tim Cook also announced that Apple has more than 2 billion activated devices, double that of 7 years ago, and 150 million more devices in the past year alone.

After the earnings report, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman also received internal information that Apple would abolish the position of chief design officer (CDO), and the design team's direct chief operating officer Jeff Williams reported.

Such a decision, first, after Jony Ive and Evans Hankey left one after another, Apple temporarily did not have a suitable candidate; Second, Apple began to transform its products, taking a practical approach and reducing the right to speak in the design team.

▲ Left: Evans Hankey, Apple's head of hardware design, right: Alan Dye, Apple's head of software design (iPhone 14 Pro series design leader) Image from: Apple

In fact, under the huge ownership of Apple devices, software services can continue to provide stable revenue, and the hardware market is actually somewhat saturated.

Apple may have hit the idea of "folding screen" at some point, but in the final analysis, folding screen is still a new form of existing devices, and the core is still a former personal computing center such as a smartphone or Mac, not the next iPhone.

Image from: 9to5Mac

Looking at Apple products in recent years, there are obvious traces of hard planning, planning to update, improve specifications, and smoothly transition to the advent of AR glasses that Apple bets on.

After a few years, it seems that Apple has made a big bet on the future on AR glasses, and how to present content and how to integrate into the Apple ecosystem relative to hardware is the key to becoming the "new iPhone".

Whether Apple gets out of the revenue winter or continues to survive the winter, all this is pressed on Apple's AR glasses, rather than simply folding the iPhone or iPad.