Written by / Zhang Ou
Editor/ Qian Yaguang
Design / Shi Yuchao
Source/Automotive World by Ciara Cook
Transportation is currently standing on the precipice of revolution, and carbon neutrality has become a race against time. The most prominent manifestation is the rapid promotion of electric vehicles.
According to the International Energy Agency, global electric vehicle sales reached 6.6 million units in 2021, accounting for 8.6% of all new car sales, more than doubling the market share in 2020. According to the current development, if there is the right policy to support, electric vehicle sales will further hit a record in 2022.
While electric vehicles are a very popular solution to the climate crisis, quite a bit of misinformation is confusing and hindering its healthy development.
Common anti-electric vehicle fallacies
There is no "one-size-fits-all" approach to business/problem solving by "technology agnostic policy" . In most countries and regions, this policy is a strategy that the government is implementing to advance the Net Zero 2050 program.
Instead of choosing a particular technology, they push the market to reach the goal in the most feasible way. However, there is a common perception in the transition to electric vehicles that the electrification revolution was artificially driven by the government, and neither the market nor consumers wanted such a change.
The reality is that governments, markets and consumers are not mutually exclusive. In order to achieve a balanced transition, some government intervention is essential.
More than 40 countries have signed agreements to phase out gasoline and diesel, and many major automakers have pledged to transition to all-electric fleets. More and more consumers are also opting for electric vehicles, which is why the global market share of electric vehicles can double in 2021.
In February 2022, Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, publicly stated in an interview that pure electric vehicles are the direction of government coercion. Still, the multinational car company has unveiled an electrification plan with the goal of reaching 100 percent of all-electric vehicle sales in Europe by 2030.
This certainly wouldn't happen without demand from the market and consumers.
Proposed ban including hybrid vehicles▼
(Source: New AutoMotive)
So, what about other technologies that haven't been taken seriously?
The two most talked about alternatives to electric drive are hydrogen and low-carbon fuels. Skeptics will stir up fears by saying that these technologies will render electrification reform useless.
Of course, these alternative fuels are still polluting, emitting carbon from the tailpipes, and it's only slightly less polluting than traditional fuels.
When many solutions are evenly available, "technology agnostic policies" come into play. Once one of these pathways has clearly demonstrated its strengths, the government needs to step up and mitigate any remaining risks.
Another misconception is that the future belongs to hybrid models, and eventually people will still use fuel and electricity to drive together.
When electric vehicle technology is not perfect and infrastructure is missing, hybrids have already taken off. It acts as a good bridge between vehicles that rely entirely on fossil fuels and pure electric vehicles.
However, the study found that plug-in hybrids actually consume more fuel. The use of such powertrains tends to be heavy-duty SUVs, often driven in non-electric mode, so heavy batteries basically only become a non-functional burden, and the heavier the body, the higher the greenhouse gas emissions.
Judging from New AutoMotive's data, the sales growth of hybrid vehicles has gradually stabilized. This is not to say that hybrids are being phased out, but it does reflect the progress made in electric vehicles and the clear more inclination of consumers to buy purely electric models.
In Norway, an advanced electrification country, sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles in February 2022 plummeted by 75% compared with January. When consumers decide to buy a "live" car, the vast majority choose pure electric vehicles.
Global sales trends▼
(Source: New AutoMotive)
Environmental impact
The risks posed to the environment by electric vehicles can be described as alarmist. Absurd claims like "they have a worse impact on the environment than fuel cars" circulate from time to time.
Let's analyze the two biggest arguments: vehicle life cycle emissions and the dirtiness of the grid.
Life-cycle emissions refer to all pollution from 0 to 1 in vehicle production, from the extraction and manufacture of raw materials to the use, recycling and end-of-life of vehicles.
The misconception is that although the exhaust emissions are gone, the pollution caused by the manufacture of batteries is born. Reality is a complex issue, and the specific source of resources will determine how much pollution is caused, but it will never be worse than a fuel car.
According to calculations, after one year of use, the pollution emissions of fuel vehicles will begin to exceed that of electric vehicles and continue to rise. Since the average life cycle of a vehicle is 14 years, this is a process that significantly reduces carbon dioxide and other pollutants.
There is also another misconception that electric vehicle batteries should be replaced after 5-8 years of use. However, this is the warranty period for most manufacturers on batteries. The actual car battery life cycle is 10-20 years, and the process of manufacturing batteries is constantly improving. This is enough to prove that electric vehicles are a green technology and will become greener and greener.
The chart below shows (projected) average life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of medium-sized fuel vehicles (ICEVs) and pure electric vehicles (BEVs) registered in Europe, the United States, China and India in 2021 and 2030. The error bar (I.) refers to the difference between the electricity mix (higher values) stipulated by local policies and the values required by the Paris Agreement.
(Source: The ICCT)
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, the new and updated nationally determined contribution targets for the world will reduce emissions by only 7.5% from the 2030 projected emissions, while the 1.5°C temperature target of the Paris Agreement will need to be reduced by 55%.
The power grid has also been the protagonist of various rumors. There is a common misconception that electric vehicles are meaningless in places where the energy source for power generation is not clean enough. Like gasoline and diesel cars, it emits exhaust gases for life.
This is not the case. Take Poland, for example. Poland has one of the least clean grids for generating energy in the EU, but even so, electric cars can still reduce emissions.
Studies by the Ministry of Transport and Environment show that electric vehicles operating in Poland emit 22 percent less CO2 than diesel cars and 28 percent less than gasoline cars. And as the EU commits to decarbonizing its power grid, that's only going to get better.
The point is that electric vehicles are on the road to getting cheaper and more efficient. While the amount of pollution varies from place to place, there is no place in the world where pure electric vehicles are more polluted than fuel vehicles.
If you have to find flaws, some countries or regions do face risks. The risk is whether we can seize the opportunities presented by this electrification revolution.
The transition to electric vehicles brings with it a multifaceted economic possibility, and a savvy government would formulate ambitious policies that are at the forefront of the development curve. Governments should not hesitate on the brink of the development of this new technology, but should find ways to promote and adapt to this technology.
Reduced emissions and clean air are accompanied by new jobs, investment, energy independence and healthier transportation.
This is truly an exciting path.
This article was originally produced by Automotive Business Review
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