The car market deep point is the industry in-depth observation column created by the car studio of a little information, and this article is the first article of the column. This article is 12591 words long and is expected to take 20 minutes to read.
"Trying to be optimistic, can't sit still, is the auto people have to keep strong."
Author, Interview 丨 Zhang Yan Zhang Nan Wang Yao
The spring of 2022 has changed the life trajectory of many Automakers.
When facing the closed-loop management of production for the first time, Wang Hua (pseudonym), a production employee of SAIC Volkswagen, did not have any preparations. One day in mid-March, near the end of work, he suddenly received a notice to work overtime for half an hour. But later, "half an hour of overtime" became closed in factory production and life. "But even with closed-loop management of production, the factory's capacity has dropped by nearly 40 percent."
"If Shanghai and its surrounding supply chain companies cannot resume work and production, all Chinese automakers will stop working and stop production in May." The "shouts" of He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, and Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's intelligent vehicle solution BU, on the Internet have attracted great attention and revealed the real situation for more people: there are employees who have been closed in the factory for several weeks, and there are also dealers who lose 80,000 yuan a day.
In 2022, the spring that belongs to the automotive industry has not yet come.
April 21, Beijing, the China International Exhibition Center, which should have been full of people, is now closed, dealers reflect that the store's passenger flow has dropped significantly; in Shanghai, which has been closed for nearly a month, the situation is even more sweaty, although in the "first batch of resumption of work and production 'white list'" of 666 enterprises, 231 belong to the upstream and downstream enterprises of the automobile industry chain, but according to a little information, many industry insiders said: "At present, the gap between full production is still very large." "The impact of the epidemic closure on logistics has made the recovery of the automobile industry have to slow down."
The outbreak that began in mid-March has brought car companies in Shanghai and Jilin to a widespread halt, causing Chinese cars to lose nearly 20 percent of their production capacity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, Shanghai's automobile production reached 2.8332 million units, accounting for 10.7% of the country's total automobile production of 26.528 million units. Jilin automobile production was 2.4241 million units, accounting for 9.1% of the country's total automobile production.
According to the March sales data of the Association, FAW-Volkswagen fell by 43.1% year-on-year, FAW Hongqi fell by 49.5% year-on-year, and SAIC-GM fell by 31.4% year-on-year. In the Yangtze River Delta region where Shanghai is located, there are also world-renowned parts suppliers such as Bosch, Aptiv and ZF, as well as private auto parts suppliers in the upstream.
Consisting of more than 20,000 parts, the automobile is one of the most complex industrial products. Previously, the entire automotive industry was operating efficiently as if it were a bite of precision instruments, and when one gear jammed, the whole machine stopped.
According to globalData, a consulting firm, Shanghai will lose more than 83,000 units from the brief shutdown from late March to early April alone. The suspension of Shanghai's automobile industry will obviously have an immeasurable impact on automobile production and sales this year.
Some insiders said: "From the perspective of production itself, car companies should have passed a difficult period. Previously, from April 1 to now, or from March 28 to now, the main engine factory in Shanghai was indeed parked. The next step can be resumed from a production point of view, but the problem is that for enterprises, it is difficult to resume work at full capacity. The main reason for the resumption of work that cannot be fully produced is still in the supply chain, if so many places cannot enter Shanghai with logistics sealed, it is impossible to produce full production. ”
Shanghai began to resume production, but it was still far from enough for the entire auto industry.
"Car companies should communicate with each parts and components company, and communicate with various companies in the supply chain about logistics, procurement and other matters; now the situation of the epidemic situation and policy situation in each region are still relatively large." Every day at the meeting, it is often heard that which place is not working today (closed), which place is not working tomorrow, and the whole supply challenge is very big. ”
In the three years of the epidemic, China's automobile industry has once again experienced unprecedented challenges, and "self-help" has become the most frequently mentioned word for auto people.
For example, in order to ensure production, many enterprises choose closed-loop management under the control of the epidemic. Jiang Jian, vice president of Bosch China, revealed that since the static management in Shanghai, some employees of Bosch's factory in Shanghai have participated in closed-loop production management so far, while the company is facing challenges in supply chain and logistics, and the pressure of production and supply assurance is very large.
For example, in order to ensure supply, some companies choose to pay higher costs. Ying Yilun, founder and chairman of The Network of Vehicles, said: "PATEO is still doing bottom-up solutions, such as building our own fleet and so on. From the beginning of the epidemic in 2020 to the present, in order to ensure chip procurement and customer supply, we have paid about 250 million to 300 million yuan in advance. ”
Car companies and dealers are looking for a way to survive under such circumstances.
Zhang Liang, deputy general manager of SAIC's data business, chief digital officer (CDO) and executive director of the marketing department of SAIC Passenger Vehicle Company, told a little information: "MG originally has a lot of reserves in terms of digital online means, and in the long run, the automobile company brands have the need to transform; MG has accumulated some online practices during this period, and the results are still good." The recently listed Scorpio has received many orders online under the state of all lockdowns in Shanghai. Some are small orders, and there are small orders to large orders; one of the reasons is that the product itself is attractive, but more is that the online approach has achieved some results. In the short term, we still hope to eliminate the impact as soon as possible. ”
In the case that customers cannot be present, dealers began to broadcast live on the short video platform, or play the previous sales video in the form of live broadcast, or receive live gifts through entertainment, hoping to get more consumer clues and attention.
Striving to be optimistic and not being able to sit still is what Autobots have to keep strong. But "today's auto industry is different from the Wuhan epidemic." At that time, the survival situation and profitability of enterprises were better than at present. Some insiders said so.
The most vulnerable link in the automotive industry chain is the smaller auto parts supplier.
"In this round of the epidemic in Omicron, all car brands must not only solve the problem of their own immediate parts supply, but also do a special management work: analyze in advance the small and medium-sized parts suppliers that you did not need to manage from the three, four, and five levels, and their survival problems in this epidemic." In short, analyze and troubleshoot in advance, and coordinate with first- and second-tier suppliers, and the assistance supports decisive action. Ideal Auto CEO Li wanted to say so in the circle of friends.
Today's auto industry is like a person who has just recovered from a serious illness but is sick again. Many people in the industry have expressed concern about consumer expectations, and many more, because the epidemic has changed the trajectory of their lives.
Some people returned to Beijing from Shanghai because of the decision to end the "twin-city life" because of the closure; some people began to reflect on whether the decision to return to China for development was correct; and some enterprise executives clearly stated: "It is more difficult to introduce talents from overseas now." ”
What are people in Shanghai's auto industry thinking about today? Where will the automotive industry go after the pandemic? A little bit of information interviewed a number of people in the automotive industry, including business executives, entrepreneurs, as well as middle-level and newcomers to the company. At such a time when it is full of uncertainty, the story they tell may be a piece of the puzzle that can piece together a more real Shanghai automobile industry and more ordinary people's lives.
The following is a compilation of the interviewee's oral statements:
"Digital means can reduce short-term impact, and the industry continues to grab tickets"
—— Zhang Liang Deputy General Manager of Data Business of SAIC Motor Group, Chief Digital Officer (CDO) and Executive Director of Marketing Department of SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company
At present, in view of the current situation, MG originally has a lot of reserves in the means of digital online, in the long run, the automobile company brand has the need to transform; MG has accumulated some online practices during this time, and the results are still good. The recently listed Scorpio has received many orders online under the state of all lockdowns in Shanghai.
Some are small orders, and there are small orders to large orders; one of the reasons is that the product itself is attractive, but more is that the online approach has achieved some results.
After all, Shanghai is only one-thirtieth of our entire market, Shanghai is almost half or sixty million market capacity, the whole market capacity is twenty million, so it is also one-thirtieth. In the case of no offline sales in Shanghai, there are many orders. Some are preliminary small orders, converted to large orders, and some are small orders at the pre-sale stage. In the case of pure lockdown, I think it is still a good show, one of the reasons is that the product itself is attractive, but more online practice has achieved some results.
So in the short term, we have some means and some effects. In the long run, it is still necessary to look at the brand and see if there is anything new in its own application model. For MG, there are some more radical changes to the next sub-brands.
This year, GDP will complete 5.5% growth, and cars will definitely play a more important role in it. I believe that the relevant departments have fully taken these factors into account.
From the overall perspective of the automotive industry, it is still in the stage of grabbing tickets. In the next few years, there will definitely be many enterprises that lack competitiveness and cannot keep up with the transformation, and there will be survival problems and be eliminated.
In the past two years, everyone will retain talents, do a good job in products, manage channels and models, and strive for the final admission ticket. Now no matter how difficult it is, you have to grit your teeth.
Why are people still fighting for the last admission ticket? To some extent, it is also for the upgrading of future industries, and the strategic direction of the national unified large market is still relatively clear. Do not have too much low-level competition, and then too inward-rolled, so that the value of industrial upgrading is not great. So now everyone is fighting for the development opportunity of industrial upgrading, and the automotive industry is at a point in the process of industrial upgrading, whether it is the upgrading of new energy, or the upgrading of intelligence, or the product design experience of the product itself, or the upgrading of the channel service body, all at this node.
"Businesses are struggling to sustain themselves, and many frontline workers have made sacrifices"
—— Jiang Jian, Vice President of Bosch China
The recent outbreak has had a considerable impact on Bosch's production.
We have two major automotive parts plants in Shanghai, one is United Automotive Electronics and the other is Bosch Huayu, which produces steering systems, both of which are joint ventures between Bosch and SAIC.
In this outbreak, both UMC and Huayu have adopted closed-loop management. This also comes from Bosch's previous anti-epidemic experience, such as when the epidemic occurred in Xi'an, the local factory summed up the relevant experience, so that we have a certain preparation. Bosch also has contingency plans at other plants in China, including a closed-loop management approach.
Our two auto parts factories in Shanghai are still in production, of course, the production capacity is not as good as usual, but some of the core business is still in operation. While production continues, closed-loop workers have been eating and living in the factory for three weeks or even almost a month. The company tries to provide the best living environment in all aspects, but the conditions are still very difficult. At the same time, the problem of logistics began to become more and more prominent, and the upstream suppliers could not supply raw materials, which directly affected us, so it was indeed a great pressure to ensure supply.
In addition to Shanghai, suzhou production has also been affected. The auto parts produced by Bosch Suzhou, such as ESP products, are mainly difficult to produce due to the lack of cores, and some raw materials cannot be transported because of logistics problems. Although production is still maintained, it is not possible to produce fully. A few weeks ago, jiangling's (medical) negative pressure car production required ESP, through the relevant departments to contact us. Although chips are still in short supply, Bosch still finds ways to supply products to Jiangling, and Jiangling is also accelerating production.
We are often the suppliers of OEMs alone. Current logistical pressures are widespread. The previous stage was mainly the lack of cores, and now various suppliers and various products are in short supply. The supply chain for cars is long and interconnected. Some upstream suppliers may be relatively small, or they may not receive enough attention and are not on the list, so there is no way to resume work and production. Sometimes the crux of the problem is a small screw. Complexity is complex in this place.
The state attaches great importance to it, and now it has improved.
So far, Bosch has tried its best to maintain it, even during the lockdown in Shanghai, we still do our best to maintain production, hoping that the situation will gradually get better.
The behavior of many employees during the epidemic is really very moving. When they were locked down, they voluntarily participated in the closed-loop production of enterprises. Everyone has their own family, wives, children, the elderly. They spent three or four weeks in the factory and had a hard time taking care of their families. These employees have made huge sacrifices for the Sake of China's auto industry, and there may be no other country in the world who can do this. If we can, we would like to be able to improve the rotation of employees in closed-loop production. From enterprises to employees, they have paid a great price to maintain the operation of China's automobile industry, not one company, two enterprises, not first-level suppliers, but first-class, second-level, many suppliers are working so hard. We hope that all the support measures for the resumption of work and production can be implemented, slowly improving, and surviving the current difficult period.
"It's challenging to return to full capacity"
—— An industry executive
Two years ago, the profitability of all car companies, including joint ventures and independent brands, was definitely better than now on the broad side, although the impact of the epidemic two years ago was actually more severe than this year. Two years ago the whole market stopped, all the supply stopped, stopped for a month or two.
Now, both supply and sales have been greatly affected. We have done incomplete statistics on the "pin", and all the regions at the national level are divided into three levels, namely red area, yellow area, and green area. The green area is completely unaffected and everything is normal. Red areas are banned, and areas like Shanghai are largely closed. These include Jilin and Shanghai, as well as some county-level cities, which are not particularly numerous.
The most is the yellow area, which is not sealed, but the control means are still relatively strong, such as the nucleic acid that takes everywhere in Guangzhou within two days, so everyone is still a little worried and anxious emotionally. Consumers are also less afraid to come out and buy a car, which occurs more often in the yellow area.
According to incomplete statistics, the areas affected by the red and yellow grades may account for 60% or 70% of all regions of the country, and the impact on sales is very large. What we see now, the total number of licenses this month may be around one or two million. In this way, the 1.5 million vehicles compared with last month have been relatively small, down one-third, down nearly half year-on-year, so the impact on sales is relatively large.
In this way, the link of "sales" affects not only car companies, but also affects the cash flow of car companies and dealers. All OEMs are affected accordingly, and all dealers are affected accordingly. Dealers are not only affected by the sales of cars, but also have a relatively large impact on the profitability of sales.
At the level of "supply", I feel that Shanghai has done a relatively good job in the management of resuming work, and the economic management and epidemic management are balanced.
All OEMs, suppliers, including steel mills and other major areas of enterprises, have a white list of employees. If the employees of these enterprises meet some basic regulations for epidemic prevention, such as your community, you have not been positive in this building for seven days, and you have a negative nucleic acid report within 48 hours, and at the same time, after multiple antigens and other conditions to meet various requirements, you can report to the whitelist. This list is certified by the government through data, and after obtaining the certification, there are special cars that pick up employees to the company on time to support the company's production. Employees are in the company after arriving at the company, but the company is also equipped with corresponding medical care and isolation areas to ensure epidemic prevention work, and if there is a problem, it can also respond in time and deal with it in time. So now we have found a relatively good set of measures to balance the economy and the epidemic.
From the point of view of production itself, it should have passed a difficult period. Previously, from April 1 to now, or from March 28 to now, the main engine factory in Shanghai was indeed parked. The next step can be resumed from a production point of view, but the problem is that it is impossible for us to resume work, and it is difficult to resume work at full capacity. The main reason for the resumption of work that cannot be fully produced is still in the supply chain, if so many places cannot enter Shanghai with logistics sealed, it is impossible to produce full production. Because many supply systems are in Jiangsu, Suzhou, Kunshan and other places, on the one hand, there are various controls in Shanghai, on the other hand, they also have various requirements, so the supply of parts is another problem. Shanghai's recovery has solved some problems, and local manufacturers in Shanghai have begun to produce parts. However, enterprises in other places, including those that have brought some support to Shanghai enterprises, have certain difficulties in the supply of the entire parts because of the epidemic around Shanghai.
You may only see shanghai as the most serious. In fact, it is not to say that Shanghai will not recover, and the impact on the whole country is actually quite large. Only a recovery in Shanghai may not completely solve the problem, but it will certainly be able to resume production to a large extent. However, it is challenging to be able to return to full capacity.
"Emergency management of the epidemic has become the norm, and logistics costs have increased by more than 300%, and the upstream supply chain is facing tremendous pressure."
—— Ying Yilun Founder and Chairman of Botai Car Networking
(Note: PATEO is located in Shanghai, is a "specialized special new" enterprise in Shanghai)
The auto industry is a giant wheel, it's painful to get it to stop, and it actually takes time to get it to spin.
Although there is now a white list of guaranteed supply in Shanghai, because the PATEO factory is not in Shanghai, we may appear in the subsequent list. In addition, the relevant departments have added a complaint platform for the supply chain-related automobile business, and we also applied for the first time, and Shanghai will focus on ensuring the resumption of work and production of the automobile industry in the future.
From the beginning of the epidemic to the present, we are continuing to "save ourselves", which is indeed very difficult. In the past three years, the emergency management of the epidemic has become normalized, and we have set up multiple teams to carry out the work.
The first is the chip procurement team. At the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, we judged that China's response to the epidemic was very effective, and the growth of the economy, including the automobile industry, and the growth of electronic products would be very fast – which means that the demand for chips in the whole society will be very strong. Therefore, PATEO set up a chip procurement team and also allocated a lot of funds to ensure chip procurement.
The second group is the cross-departmental team serving customers, under the epidemic, last year we completed the protection and supply of all customers, and none of the customers stopped the production line because of PATEO; so far this year, nothing like this has happened. We grew 26% in the first quarter, 68% above schedule. Because the supply situation last year was very good, and the customers were also confident. So we are now with the OEM customers are in storage settlement.
Third, we also set up a "long-line material tracking group". Because in addition to chips in on-board products, there are many materials, especially materials such as display screens, the industrial chain is very long.
This group does two main things. The first thing is to help our suppliers solve their problems in the industrial chain, the delivery problems in the supply chain. For example, two days ago, I was helping the supplier solve the problem of his goods being transported from Wuhu to Suzhou, and the goods could not come down at high speed, so we assisted him to solve.
The other is the problem of customs clearance. This is also a risk that we identified last year, before our customs declaration point was mainly in Shenzhen, the chips are basically from Hong Kong, Hong Kong is China's largest integrated circuit distribution center, from Shenzhen, customs clearance speed is also very fast. Last year, we increased the number of imports declared in Shanghai; at the beginning of this year, we added Xiamen as the third customs clearance point.
In addition, we have set up an emergency team for logistics, support production teams at our xiamen and Nanjing production sites, and a "mobile team stationed abroad" to help our customers solve problems.
From the beginning of the epidemic to the present, in the first stage, the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan, because it was quickly restored, PATEO was not greatly affected; the second stage was because the global epidemic brought about a chip shortage, PATEO used one or two hundred million yuan of funds to reserve chips; it also established the credit of customers, and also brought some future business opportunities. The third stage is the zero-incidence stage of the epidemic, such as the impact on Nanjing and the impact on Xiamen, but we have also passed smoothly.
Today, the stage of Theomilon counterattack mainly affects Shanghai, which is the core of the automobile industry. So we're still very challenged. From work and daily management, they have been challenged to a certain extent.
In the automotive industry, supply chain security is the biggest issue right now. The supply chain in the entire Yangtze River Delta region should be the most important automotive supply chain in China, from the perspective of PATEO itself, although we should be able to guarantee this month, but if the epidemic continues, the uncertainty of the future is also very strong.
The first is that the depot stops production, and PATEO and the customer partner recently signed a warehouse settlement, that is, the settlement of the car according to the assembly line. This ensures that as long as we can deliver the goods to the depot, we can get the relevant fees - which is not particularly large for the science and technology enterprises. But if many companies don't design this process, it is likely that the result will be that the first supply will not be available; then the supply will not be able to receive money later. You may be able to accept that a depot's accounts payable are overdue, but if five or six customers are overdue, the company's business may not be able to afford it, which will be a very big pressure.
Another difficulty is in logistics, and there are several difficulties in logistics: First, there are thousands of parts upstream of PATEO. Some are very important, such as chips, screens; and there are not key, such as circuit boards, electrical appliances, as well as hardware, metal parts, structural parts - and how to transport these to the factory for assembly, which is the first difficulty of logistics; the second difficulty is how to transport the complete equipment to the car company to assemble; the third difficulty is how to settle into funds as soon as possible after shipment.
The first difficulty was highlighted in March and was very serious by April. Because you can see that whether it is the situation of logistics or the situation of truck drivers, in fact, due to the epidemic, there are layers of card points.
In addition to the car companies in the Yangtze River Delta region, car companies in other regions can actually produce, but the relevant supporting suppliers may not be able to supply; but until the end of April to May, this situation is more complicated, and the situation of logistics and transportation will be more difficult after strengthening the control of the epidemic in various places.
Now the logistics cost has increased by about 300%-400%, the original is a truck of goods a day, now it may be divided into six trucks of goods, six drivers 4-6 days to arrive, but we must serve customers well. Now our suppliers have paid a great price - a group of people to send supplies in, quarantine, and then a group of people to continue the cycle, the same logic as JD.com.
At present, the impact on large enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and Tesla is temporary, but many small and medium-sized suppliers may close their doors. Some suppliers may have their bosses missing, and some suppliers are still working hard, but it is not known whether they can last another month or two months. So we believe that for the whole supply chain, at some level, it is a subversive and unprecedented dilemma, which is far greater than the situation caused by the epidemic in Wuhan that year.
We can only say that we can only say that we can see who can persist to the end, we do our best to do it, in fact, we see more and more uncertainty, not less and less. We're still working on bottom-up plans, like we're building our own fleets and so on.
From the beginning of the epidemic in 2020 to the present, in order to ensure chip procurement and customer supply, we have paid about 250 million to 300 million yuan in advance.
At the level of car companies, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain has made them also adjust rapidly, before they only managed first-level suppliers, and now they also have to manage second-level suppliers, and they also have to spend more energy. At this time, domestic suppliers do react faster, and the international level supplier process and industrial layout are all over the market.
At present, consumption may be affected to a certain extent, on this basis, not only the automobile industry, but also other industries will be affected.
In the face of the current difficulties, we have also made some adjustments. First of all, there is a unified thinking within the company, the team is top-down, and the executives take the lead in reducing salaries. In addition, the company suspended the recruitment plan, reduced the staffing, and improved the daily efficiency of the existing team. The general principle is that this team should be retained because we are confident in the future. We believe that winter will soon pass and spring will come. But more importantly, when spring comes, the company will survive.
"The epidemic has put a lot of pressure on small investors"
—— The person in charge of the channel of a new brand car company
Now logistics do have an impact, like this place in Shanghai, a lot of cars will be transferred from here, or shipped. For example, our factory is in X, which is relatively close, so the shipment is blocked. At present, the production is OK and has not been greatly affected.
In the two or three years since the epidemic, the biggest feeling is "uncontrollable" - nothing can be controlled. Production is uncontrollable, logistics is uncontrollable, sales volume is uncontrollable, and nothing is known. In fact, it may be more uncomfortable to the boss, the staff is fine.
And like our new brand, there are many relatively small investors, and the ability to resist risks is still relatively weak. In the past, the dealer system may be thirty or forty million to build a store, and now it may be new energy, millions can build a store, so there are many small investors.
The operation of our brand stores will be particularly different, some stores sell 30 or 50 cars per month, and some stores may not sell cars month after month. In this case, it will indeed be more difficult. Now in order to help them tide over the difficulties, enterprises are carrying out additional bonuses and policy reductions.
"The Q2 revenue of the automotive industry will be almost 'waist cut'"
—— Founder of Electric Vehicle Consulting Studio
I opened an electric car consulting studio. After the pandemic, all recruitment plans were stopped, and I had the idea of expanding before, but now I dare not. If this situation continues, let alone recruit people, I am afraid that I will have to adjust the size of the company and business expectations.
The smooth operation of the production line is the guarantee for the development of the automotive industry. In the early days of the epidemic, some car companies were still able to implement closed-loop management and ensure production, but now they have basically stopped. The automobile industry is too complicated, tens of thousands of parts, hundreds of suppliers, cut off one or two parts is good to say, but the current situation may be "everywhere alarm", car companies do not know which should be prioritized to solve. Even if the Tier 1 can be produced normally, it is also a problem that the parts will not be shipped in.
When it comes to the supply chain, after experiencing chip shortages in the past two years, everyone is talking about ensuring the security of the supply chain. But I think from a human perspective, all human behavior is prepared for normalization. In a crisis, a large-scale restructuring of the supply chain is necessary to back up, but in normal times, maintenance costs are high and management is complicated. Even if the epidemic in Shanghai is so serious now, production is difficult, and it is unlikely that the supply chain will be reorganized later.
Now OEMs and parts companies have been forced to stop production, but some R&D and management work can be carried out remotely. But dealers can't, and once they can't reach users, this retail service organization will completely stagnate.
Transmitted to the consumer side, the data of the association has said it all – car sales fell by more than 30% year-on-year in the first week of April, and at least electric vehicle sales last month were good, but this month, all brands are falling. In the automotive industry, the change in passenger flow is ahead of orders and ahead of sales changes, and by communicating with some friends in the industry who are very close to the front line, I can only say that the real situation is worse than the announcement of the association.
Although relatively strong brands such as Tesla, Weilai, BYD, and Ideal currently hold a large number of orders, if consumption really continues to decline, many brands will be more troublesome after that.
As far as I know, many car companies are delaying marketing activities, product launches, and even deliveries. All links have basically stagnated, and the revenue and output of our company Q2 have definitely dropped sharply, and the industry is either waist cut or more.
"Tesla's overseas production has no impact"
—— Mr. K has been in the industry for 2 years, doing research and development at Tesla overseas
At present, the production in Shanghai has stopped, and those who can work from home will work from home, in addition to production, it will definitely have an impact on other business lines, but I am not good to say. There are also R&D implications, but this kind of thing is difficult to quantify. Because there are tens of thousands of projects in progress, each with a different specific situation, I don't know the overall progress.
For my business, it can't be said that it has no impact. Because the software is ultimately also for the service of the whole vehicle, some hardware links and testing links are also influential. The epidemic in Shanghai has had an impact on the global supply of complete vehicles and research and development.
In recent months, I have been overseas, and although the number of infected people in the epidemic abroad is large, the basic whole society has returned to the state before the epidemic, and it has no impact on production. Because Tesla's system is particularly large, I have no say in issues that are not related to my work, such as production, sales, transportation, etc.
However, for the overseas situation, the domestic epidemic may mainly affect overseas supply (complete vehicles, spare parts and raw materials), but the Tesla factory in Berlin has been put into production, and the Model X and Model S two cars are only produced in the US headquarters, so there has been no delay in overseas markets, and the impact may gradually appear in the next one or two months. The United States is now largely back to normal, with land crossings with Canada opened a few weeks ago.
"The best sales in 2019 can get 50,000 yuan salary, now 20,000 yuan"
—— A staff member of a luxury brand dealer in Beijing, who has been engaged in the industry for 11 years
To be honest, the beijing store has little impact compared with Shanghai, mainly the impact of passenger flow, including the impact on our imported cars.
But the impact on imported cars, the epidemic is only one aspect, because now Russia is fighting with Ukraine, most of the spare parts are supplied from Ukraine. So now it is very small to have very few resources for this imported car, and it is difficult to come over.
Imported cars he are concentrated in the car is more. Sometimes a batch will arrive this month, and it may not be next month. Now, the arrival of imported cars basically needs to be postponed for about half a year to 8 months.
In the past, if you ordered a car, it was from the production month to calculate which country's factory, plus two months to get to the Chinese port. Now it's all about pinching the clock.
Moreover, it is difficult for the car to come over after arriving at the Chinese port now, and the north district basically arrives at the Tianjin port. In the past, when the epidemic situation in Tianjin Port was not serious, a large plate truck directly pulled more than ten cars over, and now the big plate car cannot enter Beijing, and it has to take the train. From Tianjin to train to and from, this time is stretched out.
Imported cars account for about half of our sales tasks, and domestic cars are also affected because there are many accessories that are also imported from abroad.
According to this annual signing target, this year may be the national 4S stores, not only our brand, but also everyone may have to adjust the target, because their cars can not be produced. Now not only the new car, but also the parts repair will also be affected, such as the customer ordered a large screen key, waiting for 7 months has not come.
The incentive policy of enterprises is more complicated, to put it simply, each model has a separate goal, and there will be different rewards for completion. If it doesn't work out, the corresponding reward will be deducted. The business line I am responsible for belongs to the high-end model, and in 2019 and 2020, it is over-completed, and the target of this year's annual signing has risen a lot. Now the brand side does not explicitly say that the task is reduced, but there are traces of loosening. However, everything is very unclear.
The North District has not been affected, but in the East District of Shanghai, in March and April, basically a car cannot be sold, and the whole thing is stagnant. Our store completed the performance in the first quarter, accounting for about 15% of the annual task; the original task amount in the second quarter was about 25%, and the business focus was still in the third and fourth quarters.
Now the impact on sales individuals is also quite large, the overall profit situation is not as good as before, and the salary in the hands of sales has also decreased. In 2019 and 2020, the best sales can get 50,000 or 60,000 yuan in January. Now the better one is about 20,000 yuan, and the average is in the early 10,000 yuan.
The peak era of car 4S store sales was around 2009 to 2014, but looking at high-end products, it has been growing very fiercely, such as our high-end products, last year,The sales volume in the North District increased by more than 50%, and rich people should buy cars or buy cars.
"The performance appraisal was cancelled in April, and I held meetings and live broadcasts at home every day"
—— Sold in a self-owned brand 4S store
In March, our store was closed for a few days, and then we went to work for a few days, and then we were completely sealed and managed. Before the closure, the business in the store was OK, and I had to leave the store two and a half hours later than the normal end time every day. After being locked in the house, every day is to do nucleic acid, grab vegetables, hold meetings, chat with customers, and live broadcast. Every day, I have to report to my boss the number of customer return visits, live broadcast time, number of live viewers and other data.
There are nearly 50 people in our store, and the boss has a meeting for at least an hour every day, mainly to tell us about the latest policies, play chicken blood and so on. In fact, I understand what he said, but now this situation is no way. He talked about his, we closed the wheat, he finished talking, we all slept almost.
Now the activity launched in the store is: customers can buy a car in the past month, and they can discount more than 5,000 yuan. But I think that if the seal is not unsealed in early May, the activity time will definitely be extended. I have a few customers who have paid money, but they have not ordered or delivered cars, which cannot be counted as my performance. As luck would have it, I received an order this month, but it doesn't count without handing over the car to the customer.
We sold more than a dozen cars in our shop, and in March a few people didn't sell a single car, and I sold less than 5 cars, which is still a sales crown. Before March, I could sell an average of about 13 cars a month. April is abolished, there is no performance appraisal, after the sealing and control do not talk about performance, only the basic salary of more than two thousand yuan, before my monthly salary was one or two thousand level.
I've been in this business for seven or eight years, and when I first started selling cars, it was nearly 20 cars a month. In the past two years, people who buy cars are either out of replacement needs, or they have just got a driver's license to buy a car to practice, or pick up children to school, which is obviously not easy to sell.
"Although it does not involve the issue of production suspension, the company's research and development is also affected"
—— An employee of an autonomous driving company
On March 28, we closed the control and everyone in the company worked from home. Some R&D work can still be done at home, but the work involving road testing and hardware development can no longer be done. Our road tests have to run data in real road scenes, and hardware-related things rely heavily on the lab. To some extent, this is also a way of producing us, and once these things are shelved, the update iteration time of the autonomous driving system will be delayed.
We also have some partners in the automotive industry, and after the epidemic in Shanghai, the progress of cooperation has slowed down. Generally speaking, we have a lot of departments involved in meetings, and now everyone works from home, and the frequency of communication with partners is not as high as before. Moreover, long-term stay at home, the psychological state is not to talk about, in addition to our own work, we have to do nucleic acid, but also to do antigens, but also to grab vegetables, but also very energy-consuming.
Although autonomous driving is not like manufacturing, it will be forced to stop production after the closure, but the company's overall development plan will definitely be affected.
At present, the biggest impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry is still at the production end, and many parts produced in Shanghai are supplied to the whole country, and if they cannot be produced, they cannot be delivered. It does not matter when the dynamic zeroing is made, what is important is that the entire industrial chain is turned up and the industry can recover.
"Work is not greatly affected, people are going to be depressed"
—— A headhunter in the Shanghai automotive industry
I am mainly responsible for R&D, functions and other types of positions, to find people for new car companies. The impact of the epidemic on us is definitely there, usually no matter what, we have to go down to meet people, but now we can't see it at all. If you communicate online, there may not be a video, direct phone chat, about the interview time is much more convenient.
Although I was forced to seal the control at home, I felt that the progress of the work was controllable. Every morning our company has a meeting, and we send out daily newspapers every day to report on the work.
The recruitment plan on the customer's side is normal, the lack of people is still lacking, although the two sides have not yet met, but we have also negotiated several offers. On the contrary, some candidates have concerns about the epidemic and are more cautious, and even if they get an offer at this point in time, they are not at ease, worried that if the epidemic is still uncontrollable, the company's business may be affected.
Compared with last month, the offer this month has dropped to a certain extent, but I think there are too many uncontrollable factors in it. To make matters worse, the epidemic is at best equivalent to the layer of frost above, after all, we belong to the tertiary industry, and we work almost the same everywhere. But I heard that for the sake of cash flow, the company has recently prepared to lay off employees, and whoever does not meet the performance standards will lay off anyone, regardless of whether the team performance is good or not.
After staying at home for a long time, I am almost depressed, and the junk food that I used to look down on is now regarded as a treasure. Recently, the takeaway was hard to put on the shelves of crayfish, 100 yuan a pound, I bought several pounds in one go.
"The epidemic has made 'Tale of Two Cities' more difficult, and the delay in the auto show has affected the pace of corporate communication"
- Ms. X
10 years in the industry, an employee of a new car company
I just quit my job because of the kids. I jumped to this very promising new car company about half a year ago, and I also went from Beijing to Shanghai. Before going back to Beijing at most 2 weeks, the child was not yet 10 years old, because of school and other issues did not move with me.
After the epidemic began to be serious this year, the child's school has constantly had new requirements: for example, if one parent returns from Beijing, if there is a case in the place of return, the child must also be isolated at home for 14 days before returning to school. She is in the 4th grade and can't delay her studies; and she often asks me, "Mom, can you not go to Shanghai?" ”
New jobs have been found well, in Beijing. If it weren't for the various circumstances caused by the epidemic, I wouldn't want to leave my job now, I feel that I haven't been in the new company long enough, and there are still many things to continue learning.
The situation in my company now is: our general functional department is still working normally, and the telephone meeting is still open as usual; but the research and development will definitely be affected; production, because our company's production is not in Shanghai but in X, and the boss has made preparations in advance, and it is still going on as usual.
Because of the epidemic, the Beijing Auto Show has been postponed, which has affected the pace of corporate communication. In the past, every Beijing Auto Show was held in late April, but it was previously said that it would be postponed to June. Looking at the impact of the epidemic now, the uncertainty is relatively large. The last Beijing Auto Show was postponed to September, but this year, if september, it is too close to the Chengdu Auto Show and the Guangzhou Auto Show; if the distance between the auto show and the auto show is less than 2 months, many corporate exhibits will not be transported.
I've also recently seen various corporate executives mention that if Shanghai continues to maintain the status quo, auto companies will face a complete shutdown in May – in the case I have seen, this will indeed be the case. What the future holds, no one knows. But the life of "home in Beijing, work in Shanghai" could not go on.