When I track Hyundai Kia's 800V model, I still see interesting phenomena. In March, Hyundai Kia's wholesale sales of two 800V models were 15,352 units, of which the Ioniq 5 sold 7,685 units and the EV6 6,806 units, both of which exceeded 20,000 units in the first quarter of the world. My question is whether the supply limits of the battery and electric drive when the 800V brought differentiation and reputation to Hyundai Kia also limited the scale of supply to some extent.
As shown in Figure 1 below, Hyundai Motor's new energy vehicle sales plan is 220,000 units, and Kia's is 151,000 units (50,000 units in South Korea, 35,000 units in North America, 65,000 units in Europe and 1,000 units in China).
Figure 1. Hyundai's main sales model
Sale of Part 1 800V models
Sales by model
If you disassemble the above data in March, you can find:
Ioniq 5 sold 3,208 units in Korea
Ioniq 5 exit 4477 units
Ev6 Sold 2,689 units in Korea
EV6 outlet 4978 units
Figure 2. Hyundai Kia's 800V model data performance in March
From the overall data, Ioniq5 started with 3,000 units in April 2021, with full-year sales of 65,960 units in 2021 (an average of 7,322 units per month), while sales of 20,002 units entering Q1 of 2022 (an average of 6,667 units per month, also declining), in the case of KONA EV itself is also limited, this data is not particularly ideal.
The sales date of Kia's EV6 began in August 2021, with full-year sales of 29,450 units (5,890 units per month) in 2021 and sales of 20,851 units per month in Q1 2022 (6,950 units per month).
I understand that these two models, especially the Ioniq5, are subject to certain chip supply problems, but the total demand is exactly how, especially the overall demand for the Ioniq 5 in China is limited.
Figure 3. Sales of Hyundai-Kia's 800V models after mass production
Sales by region
Hyundai motor and Kia's local sales of hybrid and electric vehicles in the first quarter of this year totaled 64,417 units, up 9.4% year-on-year, and electrified models accounted for 23.5% of total local sales in South Korea (273,762 units). Here, the Ioniq 5 sold 7,579 units in the local quarter and the Kia company EV6 14,052 units. The main change, as the sales of the Ioniq 5 in the United States have pulled up, are a bit unremarkable in Europe, and the sales in the three regions are:
South Korea 7579
Europe 6179
United States 6244
I am more skeptical about why Europe has fallen to only 2,000 units per month, in fact, I am tracking the sales of models in various European countries, and the Ioniq 5 is not as strong as imagined.
Figure 4. Hyundai's EV6 sales structure for 2021 and 2022
Kia's case, in the United States first delivered, so in the first quarter the United States delivered 5281 units, Europe just started to deliver only 1518 units. That is to say, the overall performance of the two small cars of Hyundai Kia in Europe, the Kona EV and Niro EV, is still better than the 800V model.
Note: Niro EV sales reached 6824 units in March, there is no burden of recall, this car is very good in Europe, Soul EV due to the smaller mileage, the number of 900 units less.
Figure 5. Sales structure of Kia's EV6
I mean, Hyundai Kia positioned the EMP platform as a dedicated platform, the Ioniq 6 and EV9 in 2022 are larger SUVs than before, but the battery capacity is indeed limited, and the G80 sedan, GV60 and GV70 belong to high-end brands, whether this model structure can achieve 350,000 units as expected (70% is expected to be EV, about 245,000 units), corresponding to the 800V platform accounting for 65%, It is expected that Hyundai Kia will sell 159,500 800V models in 2022, and the current situation in Q1 is 40,000 units, which is basically in line with the schedule demand.
The upper rhythm of the Part 2 800V model
Since hyundai Kia is running to black on the eM 800V system, from the current rhythm, the existing multi-module structure needs to be adjusted to expand the use of quantity.
●Gen 3 Battery System (2023) will introduce a 16-cell structure into the new generation of models, and change the original 180S2p 36-module configuration structure to a 160S 10-module structure.
●The Gen 4 battery system (2025) began to introduce CTP and began to use LFP batteries for configuration.
Figure 6. Mid-term overhaul of modern business
At present, it seems that the long module plan of SK and LG may land on the 800V model next year. At this pace, the life cycle of this battery system is probably less than 3 years, from April 2021 to mid-2023. In fact, the main reason is that there is not enough energy on the large car, and the other is that from the perspective of cost structure, there are still more materials at the module level.
Figure 7. EMP battery system, this one is too weak
Since the life cycle of the drive system is longer, it will be switched with the Gen4 battery system in eM, and I understand that the amount of SiC ordered by this modern order is probably according to the script, and it is difficult to have more.
Figure 8. The problem with the drive system is now supply
Summary: After the Xiaopeng G9 comes out, we can compare the difference between the upper speed of this 800V SUV and the 800V upper speed of Hyundai Kia. My understanding is that before the 800V system battery is not large or there is no low-cost battery solution (lithium iron phosphate + fast charge), the difficulty is still very large, and the overall dosage is not as fast as we think.