The new forces shuffled their cards, and "Wei Xiaoli" became "Xiao Li"... Just after March, the new forces fell into a new round of "qualifying", which attracted a lot of melon-eating masses to watch. Those companies that once ranked in the second echelon, with sales figures exceeding 10,000, are running around to announce.
It is undeniable that the rise in sales figures is indeed a matter of pride, indicating that the company's efforts have paid off. But do the current sales figures say "shuffle" or "set"? This is probably debatable.
1
The amount of "wisdom" behind the sales is more worthy of attention
What do you think of the sales of new forces in March? Different people may have different perspectives. If it is only the number theory, the head camp is indeed shuffling, the most typical is that Nezha Car and Zero Run Car have broken into the first camp with sales of more than 10,000, and some media have described Weilai Automobile as "bottoming out".
However, we should see that the lowest price of Weilai Automobile is 358,000 yuan, the minimum price of Xiaopeng Automobile is 168,900 yuan, the price of the ideal car is 349,800 yuan, and the price of Nezha and zero-run products is basically 70,000 or 80,000 yuan, although everyone is called a new force, but it is obviously not a type of player, and the size of the market segment where it is located is also different, so it is a very one-sided approach to divide the echelon simply by sales figures.
In fact, this is not the most important thing.
As far as new energy vehicles are concerned, the biggest difference is the "three electricity system" and "intelligence" two parts, the former is regarded as the "first half", the latter is the ultimate PK of new energy vehicles, which directly determines the core competitiveness and brand differentiation in the future. At present, the outside world basically has a clear brand recognition when it comes to "Wei Xiaoli", in fact, the performance of WM to be listed in terms of intelligence is also very "first-class". Through the analysis of the following table, it is not difficult to see that in terms of intelligence, "Wei XiaoLiwei" can be described as an "old driver", and they invariably choose "heavy soldier laying" intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit, which is the most direct area of perception of large users.
Shen Hui, founder of WM, once said that China's new energy vehicle companies have begun an intelligent arms race. Whether this prediction is true or not, we can also find out from the above table: in order to seek a "breakthrough", Weilai and WM both use 4 Orin-X chips to achieve high matching in computing power and algorithm; and at the critical perceptual level of safe operation of automatic driving, WM took the lead in installing 3 solid-state lidars in M7 models, which is leading in quantity and will bring better experience than the same level of functions in intelligent driving. This is also another initiative after WM took the lead in mass production of the most full-featured L2 level autonomous driving assist technology in 2019, and successfully mass-produced the L4 level unmanned driving technology in the first limited scenario in China two years later. Compared with the "price for volume" of Nezha and zero running, Weima with higher "wisdom" will have more growth potential.
The differentiators of the four in the smart cockpit focus on the electrical and electronic architecture. The domain centralized control adopted by NIO can achieve system updates covering the three-electric system, chassis suspension, assisted driving and infotainment through FOTA; Xiaopeng adopts the central supercomputing (C-DCU) + area control (Z-DCU) hardware architecture, which will realize central computation, which will also become the direction of the next generation of electronic and electrical architecture of the ideal car. WM adopts a centralized regional control architecture, the degree of integration is further improved, the computing power is more concentrated, and its advanced nature is reflected in SOA (Intelligent Programming System), WM M7 can realize the whole vehicle SOA, and support users to co-create programming systems. Yipinjun believes that any car company that dares to take the lead in landing forward-looking intelligent "eating crabs" is worthy of praise.
He Xiaopeng, founder of Xiaopeng Automobile, has said more than once, "Electric vehicles are by no means the next era of automobiles", and Shen Hui, founder of WM Motors, said more directly: "The second half of new energy vehicles is 'intelligent' competition." ”
The data also confirms the predictions of the founders, from the smart car report released by Guotai Junan Securities, showing that in 2021, the sales of smart cars exceeded 2.7 million, the annual intelligent penetration rate exceeded 10%, and the sales of smart cars in December 2021 exceeded 400,000 vehicles, with a single-month penetration rate of 17.6%, and the demand for smart chips grew rapidly. It can be seen that the wave of smart cars has come.
If you look at it from this dimension, the amount of "wisdom" behind the sales volume is obviously more gold-rich. Because every car sold represents a data, as the scale of sales increases, it will change from quantity to "intelligence" in the future, otherwise sales are just a lonely number.
2
There is another "hidden" sentiment behind the sales figures
We often use sales figures to represent the success or failure of products, if the market is in a normal state, this judgment is understandable, but under the interference of multiple factors such as the epidemic, lack of core, and raw material price increases, can the sales figures still represent the real market feedback of the product?
The answer is not necessary. In fact, under the influence of "lack of core and less electricity", the increase in the amount of insurance of listed car companies such as Weilai in March has been weak, and new forces such as WM Motors may be more affected. On the one hand, among the new forces, "Wei Xiaoli" is a listed car company, and the cash flow in its hands is often 40 to 50 billion, which is obviously stronger in the competition for chip resources. WM is not a listed car company, subject to objective conditions such as capital and scale, and it is more passive in the "chip shortage" environment. On the other hand, "Wei Xiaoli" is positioned at the high end, the profit margin is large, and the gross profit margin is about 20%, which is obviously more advantageous for channeling upstream cost pressure and sharing risks. WM focuses on the mid-end market and takes the route of technology universalization, and maintaining the double standard of "technology" and "universal benefit" means to benefit users, which also makes the profit margin of WM bicycles smaller, and the cost pressure is naturally greater.
In this case, how to interpret the sales figures of enterprises may also need to change their perspective.
3
The market structure is being transformed, and the mainstream market of 150,000-250,000 yuan is about to break out
Yipinjun believes that under the influence of short-term factors such as the epidemic, chip shortage, and rising raw material prices, instead of focusing on temporary sales figures, it is better to gain insight into potential changes in the future automotive pattern.
From the perspective of the large market pattern, the growth rate of smart electric vehicles is developing beyond expectations, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March has exceeded 30% (according to national planning, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2025 is 20%); from the perspective of market segmentation, new energy vehicles are transitioning from "dumbbell type" (high-end and small electric vehicle sales scale) to "spindle type", especially the market priced in the range of 150,000 to 250,000 yuan, which will usher in a period of rapid growth in the future; coincidentally, from the perspective of competitive subjects, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, GM and other companies will complete the layout of mainstream electric vehicles (priced at 150,000 to 250,000 yuan) this year, which is likely to bring about a reshuffle of the market pattern.
Driven by this trend, Tesla will launch products with lower positioning than Model 3, and Weilai is also brewing low-end brands. In fact, this is a positive for WM Motors, which is already focusing on the mid-range market. Shen Hui also said when talking about the trend of market structure from "dumbbell type" to "spindle type" that it is very normal for a new market to be "high and low at both ends", which just proves that the market is about to enter a mature period, and the maturity period means that the market in the core price range of 150,000-250,000 yuan will usher in an outbreak, and we have been focusing on this segment, or there is a first-mover advantage and growth potential.
Perhaps it is a coincidence that although WM's monthly sales are not as good as Wei Xiaoli's, the sales growth rate in March is playing an extraordinary role. According to the Insurance Data released by China Automobile Center in March, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal and Tesla slowed down after the rapid development in the early stage, and the market gradually became saturated. WM Motors increased by 210% year-on-year in March, and in the first quarter of this year, the cumulative delivery volume of WM also doubled year-on-year, which can be seen that the delivery volume of WM has steadily increased under the established rhythm.
At the same time, it is worth noting that in order to expand market coverage, WM has accelerated the layout of new products in the segment. The recently completed listing of the new WM E.5, as well as the WM M7, which will be delivered in the second half of the year, mean that the rich product matrix will bring stronger momentum to WM's impact on the mid-to-high-end intelligent electric vehicle market.
Returning to the topic of the opening chapter, Yipinjun believes that the short-term fluctuations in the market are not enough to be afraid, and the sales volume is bleak for a while and does not need to be over-interpreted. The achievements of Nezha and Zero Run are worthy of applause, and the future pattern of Weilai and Weima is also clearly visible. Of course, the author is not to deny the importance of sales figures, but does not want some brands and public opinion to blindly believe that the sales figures are good for a while, and ignore the gold content behind the numbers, otherwise the figure is quick and is likely to be spoiled by the number game.