The annual announcement of the "double credit" situation once again pushes the hot discussion of a series of issues such as fluctuations in the price of the points transaction, policy adjustments, and how to link and connect with carbon trading to the cusp of the storm.
1
"Everyone is happy" under the "double growth" of positive integrals
On April 8, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Announcement on the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and the Credits of New Energy Vehicles in 2021" (hereinafter referred to as the "Announcement"), showing that the overall fuel consumption and positive points of new energy in the industry achieved "double growth", which means that the 125 car companies (including imported passenger car suppliers) participating in the accounting in 2021 "all rejoiced" and obtained abundant positive points.
According to this public report, the reporter roughly counted the total amount of fuel consumption and new energy positive and negative points in the whole industry, of which the positive points of fuel consumption in the industry in 2021 were 15.5349 million points, and the negative points of fuel consumption were 6.1366 million points; the positive points of new energy generated were 6.7672 million points, and the negative points of new energy were 810,000 points.
The results of China Automobile Data Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Data") comparing the positive and negative points of the industry as a whole in 2021 with 2020 show that the positive points of fuel consumption in the industry in 2021 increased by 255.7% compared with the year-on-year in 2020, and the negative points of fuel consumption decreased by 47.6% year-on-year. It is worth noting that last year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased beyond expectations, and the positive points of new energy vehicles generated by the industry also increased. Even in accordance with the "double integration" policy, the proportion of new energy vehicle credits in 2021 will be increased to 14%, and the positive new energy credits generated by the industry will still achieve a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, and the negative new energy credits will show a year-on-year decline of 24%.
"Everyone is happy" does not mean that all enterprises are free of pressure, although the whole industry has achieved "double growth" in fuel consumption and new energy, but according to policy requirements, there are still enterprises that have not yet reached the standard. Among the 125 enterprises participating in the accounting in 2021, the number of enterprises that meet the standards and those that do not meet the standards is almost average, 63 enterprises that meet the standards and 62 enterprises that do not meet the standards.
It is worth noting that in the camp of substandard enterprises, there are 21 joint ventures, accounting for a significantly higher proportion than that of independent brand car companies. The list of the top 10 companies with fuel consumption and new energy plus and minus points in 2021 combed by the reporter shows that 7 of the top 10 companies with negative fuel consumption points are joint venture car companies, and 9 of the top 10 enterprises with negative new energy points are joint venture car companies. Among them, including FAW-Volkswagen, Dongfeng Nissan, SAIC-GM and other traditional joint venture car companies with large production and sales scales, have been on the top 10 list of non-standard for 3 consecutive years, with the improvement of the proportion of new energy vehicle credits, the pressure to meet the standard in the future is still not small.
In fact, whether it is out of optimism about the market prospects or to meet the provisions of the "double credit" policy, more and more joint venture car companies have launched an increasingly aggressive electrification offensive in China. On April 8, BMW announced its sales results for the first quarter of 2022, of which the BMW Group delivered more than 208,000 units (including MINI) in the first quarter of the Chinese market, and the sales of pure electric vehicles in the Chinese market increased by 3 times year-on-year. On March 31, BMW's new i3, which is specially built for the Chinese market, was officially launched, and according to the plan, BMW will introduce 5 pure electric models to the Chinese market this year. Similarly, Mercedes-Benz also revealed in the first quarter of the sales performance release that in the Chinese market, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles is obvious, and under the strategy of "comprehensive electric", 8 new energy products will be launched to the Chinese market this year. Among them, the new EQE will be produced in China.
On the contrary, in the positive points camp, independent brand car companies occupy the absolute main force. In 2021, the top 10 companies with positive points for fuel consumption and new energy and independent brand car companies all occupied 9 seats. Among the independent brand car companies with excellent positive integral performance, there are both old car companies such as SAIC-GM-Wuling, BYD, Changan and Great Wall, as well as new car-making forces such as Ideal, Xiaopeng and Hezhong.
In fact, due to the increase in new energy and electrification layout, as well as the continuous progress in technological innovation, the ability of independent brand car companies to obtain points is indeed increasing day by day. Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, has publicly stated that due to the impact of the "double integral" policy, Changan Automobile's bicycle profit in 2020 will be reduced to an average of about 4,000 yuan. And this pressure has been significantly alleviated. In January this year, Zhu Huarong revealed in an exclusive interview with this reporter that at present, Changan Automobile's new energy vehicle products, with the improvement of technology, the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction has continued to improve, and by obtaining points, it has the ability to balance costs and profits.
Tesla is the only foreign car company in the top 10 of the positive points ranking, and the new energy positive points rank first, far ahead of the second place with a score of more than 1.4 million points. The news that Tesla relies on points to make a lot of money has previously spread in the industry, and Tesla has also been named one of the most successful and profitable "charcoal sellers".
Imported passenger car suppliers are still large households that do not meet the standards. According to the publicity, there are 21 imported passenger car supply enterprises in 2021, and the number of enterprises that have not met the standard is 17.
Source: Announcement on average fuel consumption of passenger car companies and credits for new energy vehicles in 2021
Watchmaking: Wang Pu
2
The tragedy of "walking on one leg" needs to be cured urgently
Does the positive integration of fuel consumption and new energy "double growth" mean that the fuel consumption of traditional energy passenger cars is really stress-free? Has the shortcomings of enterprises 'one-legged walking' high dependence on new energy vehicle credits to achieve compliance really been made up? The answer is: no.
It is understood that in 2021, affected by chip supply, the output of domestic traditional energy passenger cars fell by 4.9% year-on-year, and the output of new energy passenger cars increased by 158.2% year-on-year, and the difference in the output of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is an important reason for the rapid rise of positive points in the industry in 2021. That is to say, the overall positive integral of the industry in 2021 is abundant, and the unexpected growth of new energy vehicles is still indispensable. According to estimates, the decline in the actual value of the industry's average fuel consumption in 2021 and the improvement of the enterprise compliance rate mainly depend on new energy passenger vehicles, and the accounting preferences of new energy passenger vehicles have reduced the overall fuel consumption of the industry by 25%.
In the interview, industry insiders admitted that it is relatively difficult for the fuel consumption of traditional energy passenger cars to decline, which is the main source of compliance pressure in the industry. The factors that make it difficult to reduce the fuel consumption of traditional energy passenger cars are mainly due to the large-scale product structure, the trend of high displacement is still obvious, and the carrying rate and penetration rate of energy-saving technologies such as hybrid power are relatively low. The data shows that in recent years, the average annual growth rate of the maintenance quality of traditional energy passenger cars has been 1.6%, while the penetration rate of strong mixing and light mixing technology in domestic traditional passenger cars in 2021 is only 3.7% and 3.6%.
It is undeniable that the dependence on new energy vehicles for the integration standard is too high, and it is not conducive to the relative stability of the point price in the integration transaction link. At the same time, it is also detrimental to the healthy and sustainable development of the industry, and runs counter to the original intention of the "double credit" policy.
"At present, relying only on the 'one leg' of new energy vehicles to achieve the status quo of points is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the industry, and the problem of slower fuel consumption of traditional energy passenger cars should be improved, and the 'two legs' are truly realized in parallel." Ren Huanhuan, director of the low-carbon business department of China Automobile Data, said frankly.
So, how do industry enterprises ensure that the points meet the standards to achieve the "two legs" of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles? At the previous conference of the joint research results of the integral price prediction, Ren Huanhuan said that from the perspective of the industry and enterprises formulating compliance strategies, we should pay attention to the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, and grasp the development trend of the compliance technology path. At the same time, in view of the slow decline in fuel consumption of traditional vehicles, the industry and enterprises should pay attention to the further improvement of the application of hybrid technology, so as to reduce the excessive dependence of fuel consumption compliance on new energy vehicles.
3
The industry risk behind the "diving" of the price of points
The points transaction price affects the "nerves" of the enterprise.
Judging from the current publicity, it is foreseeable that based on the abundance of positive points, the lower transaction price of points in 2021 has become a foregone conclusion, and it is even likely to "dive".
In fact, since the implementation of the "double credit" policy, the price of points has been in a state of great fluctuation. It is understood that in the 4 point transactions completed by the industry, due to multiple factors such as compliance costs, supply and demand relations, and price expectations, the difference between the lowest price and the highest price of the points transaction is more than 30 times.
To what extent will the price of points fall in 2021? In March this year, China Automobile Data released the 2021 point price forecast, of which the price forecast range for the points trading year (January to September 2022) is 1000 to 1400 yuan per minute. Compared with last year's forecast and the actual average price of transactions, it has continued to decline. At the corporate level, it is expected that the actual transaction price is likely to fall below 1,000 yuan.
"The point transaction price is likely to continue to decline with the continuous expansion of the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles, and from the perspective of the long-term development of the industry, this phenomenon is not scientific and reasonable." It even has a certain impact on the sustainable development of new energy vehicles in the future. Chen Chuan, director of the Energy Conservation Strategy Research Office of the Low Carbon Business Department of China Automobile Data, judged.
Although the fluctuation of prices is affected by many factors such as the market and the supply and demand of points, the large disorderly fluctuations bring many risks to the long-term development of the industry and enterprises. Moreover, due to information asymmetry and other reasons, the ability to change and predict the trend of the integral price is relatively insufficient, so the realization of fluctuations in the price of integrals within a scientific and reasonable range has also become a common demand of the industry and enterprises.
Wu Zhixin, deputy general manager of China Automobile Center, said in a monograph on the price of points: The price of points should still fluctuate around the value and should not deviate too much. Too high or too low the price of points will interfere with the judgment of enterprises on national energy-saving regulations, thus affecting the healthy and orderly development of the new energy automobile industry. At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., also called for stabilizing the trading price of points, and the imbalance between supply and demand of points and the disorderly fluctuation of prices should be controlled from the policy level.
This year, the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy will be fully withdrawn, coupled with the continuous rise in raw material prices directly led to the increase in manufacturing costs, at present, many car companies have announced the price increase of their new energy models, in addition, chip supply in the short term is still relatively short of multiple factors superimposed, it is foreseeable that will affect the 2022 annual points price fluctuations and trends.
4
Build an "integral pool" of arrows on the strings
It is undeniable that some of the terms and regulations in the current "double integral" policy cannot fully match the new situation of the current industry development, so as a "double integral" policy with unique Chinese characteristics, where will it go?
The industry has also thrown out such a view: the "double integral" policy of encouraging enterprises to lay out new energy vehicles and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction has completed its historical mission with a high probability. In this regard, Wu Zhixin clearly responded in the monograph: The development of the new energy automobile industry in the mainland has not yet entered the stage of complete marketization, so it still needs the escort of the "double integral" policy.
So, how will the problems encountered at the moment be solved? The adjustment of the "double points" policy is imperative.
For how to crack the imbalance between supply and demand of points and the disorderly fluctuation of point prices, participants in the industry and enterprises have also proposed a plan that tends to be "unified": the establishment of a "point pool".
During the two sessions of the National People's Congress last year, Zhu Huarong proposed the establishment of a "point pool" management mechanism to adjust the supply and demand of points through the "point pool"; under the premise of ensuring fairness and fairness and relative marketization, a third party combined with the supply and demand of industry points was used to collect and store points, and at the same time allowed enterprises to borrow points from the point pool and repay them at a certain interest rate, so as to regulate the market supply and demand structure, stabilize price expectations, facilitate enterprises to allocate resources in advance, and reduce business risks. At this year's National Two Sessions, Fang Yunzhou, founder and chairman of Nezha Automobile, also proposed to establish a "point pool" to stabilize points trading. When Wang Chuanfu talked about measures to deal with the fluctuation of point prices, he also suggested that the industry establish a "point pool" to ensure the effective operation of the "double points" policy.
It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other relevant competent departments have also proposed the key exploration direction of the next stage of the "double integration" policy revision for the stabilization of the point price, and will stabilize the point price expectation with a flexible management mechanism. The reporter learned from relevant channels that in the next step, the "double integral" policy revision, the "integral pool" management mechanism will be expected to be included in the policy. In addition, the inclusion of commercial vehicles in the "double points" policy, which has been discussed for a long time in the industry, may also usher in substantial progress.
5
Explore the link between "double credits" and carbon trading
With the acceleration of the "double carbon" goal in the automotive industry, the linkage and connection between "double integration" and carbon trading have also become a hot topic in the industry.
Last year, Sun Fengchun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, said that the "double credit" policy is prompting enterprises to reduce emissions and complete the goal of controlling carbon emissions through the market-oriented mechanism of carbon trading. At present, the mainland has initially established a national market system, and the conditions for the road transportation industry to be included in the national carbon trading market have initially matured.
On April 8, at the online publicity meeting of the 2022 China New Energy Vehicle Travel Carbon Asset Development Joint Research Group held by China Automobile Data, experts attending the meeting said that how to open up the "double integral" policy and the carbon market requires carbon asset accounting as a connection. Through carbon asset accounting, the accounting of carbon emission reduction of new energy vehicle travel and the low carbon management of the production end and the use end are integrated, and the negative integral is offset by the carbon emission reduction of travel, which is feasible in the future.
Text/Watchmaking: Wang Pu Editor: Huang Xia Layout: Wang Kun