The author | Wang Yunpeng
The source | Auto Grand view
Recently, China Automobile Data Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Data") and the joint research unit jointly released the joint research results of the 2021 new energy vehicle credit price prediction.
Judging from the content of the report, China Automobile Data is not optimistic about the price trend of new energy vehicle credits in the future period of time. The report shows that the annual forecast price range of points accounting is 2600-2900 yuan / min (based on the forecast of the mid-2021 trading period for the January-December 2021 trading period); the annual forecast price range of the integral trading year is 1000-1400 yuan / min (based on the perspective of the beginning of 2022, for the forecast of the January-September 2022 trading period).
Before that, the industry was still quite optimistic about the price of new energy vehicle credits. In August 2021, some insiders said, "In 2020 and 2021, new energy credits are seriously in short supply, and a new energy credit is worth 3,000 yuan at the end of 2020, and will exceed 5,000 yuan / min at the end of 2021, and the price of points in 2022 is higher, and it is expected to be 6,000-10,000 yuan / min." ”
That is to say, after only half a year, industry institutions have begun to be less optimistic about the price of new energy vehicle credits in the future for a period of time.
It is worth mentioning that from the information disclosed by many car companies in recent times, the prediction of the price trend of new energy vehicles by industry institutions seems to be somewhat conservative.
"Last year, the value of points was about 2500 yuan / point and above, and the lowest was about 2350 yuan / point, but because the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 160% last year, so there are more and more points, and the value of points this year is only 500-800 yuan a point." Dong Yudong, CEO of the Great Wall Motor Euler brand, said in an interview with the media a few days ago.
The supply of new energy credits exceeds demand
On September 28, 2017, the Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits (hereinafter referred to as the "Double Credit Measures") were promulgated and came into effect on April 1, 2018.
The essence of double integration is energy consumption average management. Every year, the energy consumption assessment of the models produced by the car company is calculated as negative points, and the part that exceeds the set standard value of the year is calculated as negative points, and the lower part is calculated as positive points.
The Dual Credits Scheme manages both CAFC credits (enterprise average fuel consumption credits) and NEV credits (new energy vehicle credits). Among them, the CAFC positive points can only be carried forward or transferred to affiliated enterprises by themselves, and cannot be used to compensate for nev negative points, while NEV positive points can be freely traded to offset NEV negative points and CAFC negative points.
In layman's terms, the average fuel consumption of all vehicles sold by car companies should reach a certain energy-saving standard, and if this standard is exceeded, enterprises will offset the negative points of average fuel consumption through the positive integrals of new energy vehicles. If it is not enough to offset, it is necessary to purchase new energy credits from other enterprises through transactions to offset.
Because of this, in the past two years, the new energy vehicle credit transaction has become an important source of profit for new energy vehicle companies. Relevant statistics show that according to the rough statistics of the 2021 transaction year, the number of new energy vehicle credit transactions in China for the 2020 points compliance reached about 5.2 million points, and the integration transaction income was about 10 billion yuan.
Just when the industry also regarded new energy vehicle credits as an "important financial road" for car companies, the trading price of carbon credits fell to 500-800 yuan at the beginning of this year.
At the end of 2021, the price of new energy credits, which is still quite strong, why is it suddenly like a roller coaster? "This is mainly due to the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market, which has led to a sharp rise in the supply of new energy vehicle credits, and the growth in demand is extremely limited." Mei Songlin, a senior analyst in the automotive industry, said.
In fact, the above-mentioned industry insiders' analysis is not unreasonable. Statistics show that in 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in the domestic market were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year. The new energy credit reached 8.43 million points, an increase of 3 million points compared with 5.42 million points in 2020, an increase of 55% year-on-year.
However, what is more embarrassing is that while the new energy credits have increased significantly, the industry's demand for credits has not increased significantly. Specifically, with the growth of new energy vehicle sales, many car companies can basically meet the demand through the transfer of points within the group. Taking the Great Wall's Euler brand as an example, it is reported that the cumulative sales volume of Euler will reach 135,000 vehicles in 2021, and the points earned by its models can meet the needs of Great Wall Motors.
In addition, the above-mentioned analysts also pointed out that "the sales of traditional fuel vehicles are actually declining, and the policy's requirement for the credit ratio of new energy vehicles has only increased from 14% last year to 16% this year." These factors have also led to the demand for new energy vehicles in car companies for new energy vehicles is not as strong as imagined. ”
Can you still get rich on points?
In the future, can new energy vehicle companies still make money by points?
Before answering this question, let's look at a set of data. On March 3, BYD's latest production and sales data was released. According to the data, BYD's (including passenger cars/commercial vehicles) sales in February this year were 91,078 units, an increase of 335.2% year-on-year, of which the sales of fuel vehicles were only 2,795 and the sales of new energy passenger cars were 87,473, an increase of 764.1% year-on-year, accounting for 96% of the total sales of new vehicles.
Thanks to the soaring sales of new energy models, BYD's monthly sales also surpassed SAIC Volkswagen for the first time.
Perhaps, some people will say that BYD's monthly sales surpassed SAIC Volkswagen for the first time, which does not explain anything. However, in the author's opinion, SAIC Volkswagen and BYD represent the two camps of the automotive industry, the former represents traditional car companies, and BYD represents the new energy vehicle camp. The change in the monthly sales ranking of the two also indicates to a certain extent that the potential of new energy vehicles is accelerating.
In fact, the author's point of view can also be seen from the sales performance of the new car-making forces in February. Statistics show that in February, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 6225 units, an increase of 180.0% year-on-year; ideal cars were 8414 units, an increase of 265.8%; Weilai was 6131 units, an increase of 9.9%; Nezha was 7117 units, an increase of 255.5% year-on-year.
In other words, with the accelerated release of the market potential of new energy vehicles, the price of new energy credits may be further reduced. "If the sales of new energy vehicles reach 4.2 million units or more this year, the value of points will become lower and lower, and it may become 200 yuan per cent." Dong Yudong said in a previous interview with the media.
If the price of new energy points this year is really as predicted by China Automobile Data and industry insiders, then the performance of car companies such as BYD, Tesla and a number of new car-making forces is bound to be affected.
It is worth mentioning that with the decline in the price of new energy credits and the gradual decline of subsidies, the encouragement effect of the double credit policy on car companies is also weakening. For example, since the beginning of this year, Euler and Nezha Automobile have announced the news that their related models have stopped receiving orders. And these moves are also regarded by the industry as a comprehensive consideration made by car companies under the conditions of shortages and price increases in chips, battery materials, etc.
Although the decline in the price of new energy vehicle points will affect the operation and production of many car companies, it is still too early to conclude that "new energy vehicle companies cannot make money by points in the future".
Specifically, in 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjusted the measurement standards for the mileage of new energy vehicles and the newly revised "Double Integration Method", which will increase the difficulty of obtaining new energy credits. At the same time, on February 28 this year, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that he would pay close attention to studying and clarifying support policies such as the continuation of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles, optimize the "double integral" management method, do a good job in effectively connecting with the decline of subsidies, and stabilize market expectations.
In addition, with the gradual clarification of the domestic double carbon target task, many car companies are currently calling for the dual credit to be linked to carbon trading as soon as possible.
In the future, with the stabilization of the number of new energy vehicle credits, the completion of the optimization of relevant management measures, and the completion of the connection between the two systems of double integration and carbon trading, it is not excluded that the price of new energy vehicle credits will be stable within a reasonable range.
"Double integrals were previously an important source of profit for new energy vehicle companies, but now because the price of double integrals is relatively low, profits will not increase too much." However, from the perspective of encouraging the development of new energy vehicles, medium- and long-term sustainable policies should be considered. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said.