Author 丨 Wang Xiaoxi
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
The development of hydrogen energy is actually a "big game"
On April Fool's Day, Musk was in trouble again. He tweeted that after years of skepticism, he would switch Tesla from batteries to hydrogen in 2024.
As we all know, Musk has always been very reluctant to endorse the hydrogen energy route. He had previously referred to hydrogen fuel cells as "fool's batteries" and called the technology "incredibly stupid." Obviously, this is another April Fool's joke and mockery.
However, the reason why Musk tweeted at this node is probably for two reasons. One is that as a renewable energy source, hydrogen energy has recently sparked a huge investment enthusiasm.
On March 23, a series of policies such as the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau were introduced, and the hydrogen energy strategy was upgraded to a national strategy for the first time.
In fact, it has been discussed a long time ago that hydrogen energy mainly depends on the national policy orientation. The hydrogen energy industry has become a hot industry hotspot, experts have also expressed different opinions, especially in January, the National Energy Administration said that in 2022 will accelerate the promotion of energy technology innovation, focusing on promoting technical research in the field of hydrogen energy, it can be said that it has reached a new node.
01
The shortcomings of industrialization
First of all, we need to sort out the development status and ideas of hydrogen energy.
At the recent Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Chen Qingquan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering with limited support, said that although the mainland is rich in hydrogen energy resources, it has a high impurity content and fuel cell consumption of less than 1%. In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, the utilization rate of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydropower should be improved.
At the same time, he also pointed out that in terms of the key materials for hydrogen energy utilization, there are still shortcomings in the technology and large-scale of proton exchange membrane materials in the mainland, and the industrialization speed should be improved as soon as possible.
This is also where many scholars and experts question hydrogen energy. This includes high costs and high storage risks. In the final analysis, it is the complete problem of the hydrogen energy industry chain:
First, hydrogen production is expensive and difficult to store; moreover, hydrogen transportation, container sealing technology and anti-pressure technology are risky;
Second, there is no obvious advantage between hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and pure electric vehicles, and the safety of hydrogen refueling stations is not easy to guarantee.
In the development of the hydrogen energy industry chain, industry insiders also believe that the first country to complete carbon peaking is ahead of China.
For example, in the early 1990s, countries and regions such as the European Union generally achieved carbon peaking. In 2007, the United States completed carbon peaking. Japan reached its carbon peak in 2013. Moreover, these countries have formulated corresponding national strategies around 2021.
Of course, these gaps are not insurmountable, and there are currently no obvious technological gaps and patent restrictions. For example, in 2015, Toyota announced the opening of 5680 patents related to hydrogen fuel cells, including 1970 key technology patents for the mirai of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. This has also accelerated the technological development in the field of hydrogen energy.
At the same time, foreign hydrogen energy hydrogen refueling stations have also frequently exploded in the past two years, indicating that there is still a long way to go in terms of technological maturity. Therefore, In 2022, China has clarified the practice of hydrogen energy strategy becoming a national strategy, and the model of "concentrating on big things" has the opportunity to surpass opponents and lead.
However, there is still a paradox in the development of hydrogen energy. Although hydrogen is widely sourced, it can be produced in a variety of ways, and can be re-regenerated, which is more promising than the non-renewable conventional petroleum resources in the past. However, the process of producing hydrogen is to consume energy first (that is, the so-called hydrogen is very "high energy").
So why is our country so "thankless" to rise to the national strategy to develop hydrogen energy? This is a difficult question to answer. It wasn't until I learned about another path of development that I figured out the connection.
02
The "magic" of renewable energy
Unexpectedly, there is another use of hydrogen energy.
First of all, Bao Xinhe, president of the University of Science and Technology of China, talked about the four points of the new energy strategy in a report on the theme of "carbon neutrality and energy revolution": fossil energy is the foundation, renewable energy is the fundamental, hydrogen energy substitution is the key, and carbon dioxide treatment is the future.
If combined with the "nano-limited catalysis" technology of Bao Xinhe and academicians who won the first prize of the National Natural Science Award, we can generally guess that the country vigorously promotes the new energy strategy including hydrogen energy.
Why? This is to say, last year there was an explosive news: the Tianjin Institute of Industrial Biotechnology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences realized the synthesis of carbon dioxide starch for the first time.
In other words, it is the real "entropy reduction" that turns carbon dioxide into food. At a time when food security is the focus, it is undoubtedly the absolute leading technology.
Moreover, on October 30 last year, it was reported that the Feed Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences achieved the synthesis of carbon monoxide to protein and formed a 10,000-ton industrial production capacity.
The key point is that carbon dioxide synthesizes starch, its raw materials are carbon dioxide and hydrogen, from these points of departure after several steps of chemical reaction, completely without biological systems, only chemical catalysts can be used to synthesize starch. This is a very remarkable "out of nothing" kind of achievement.
▲ Carbon monoxide synthesis protein flow chart
After all, in the process of carbon monoxide synthesis of proteins, the preparation of carbon monoxide also requires a lot of energy. Moreover, its synthesis method is not purely chemical, but to use biological strains, which are commonly known as "fermentation".
In this sense, it is far inferior to the synthetic starch of carbon dioxide that is detached from the biological system.
However, hydrogen is a very high-energy substance. Unless there is cheap energy that can produce cheap hydrogen, this technology can come to great use.
As mentioned earlier, hydrogen is currently prepared from fossil fuels and the cost is very high, so the cost of this technology is much higher than that of natural photosynthesis such as corn to produce starch.
It can be said that this technology is "very important scientifically, and the technology is far from practical." "But it is foreseeable that with the significant reduction in the cost of new energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power, carbon dioxide synthetic starch may enter practical use."
We know that once it gets into practical use, it is the tens of millions of tons. The magnitude of hydrogen used here is very high.
The point is, so, how to reduce the cost of hydrogen energy? That can first expand the scale of the industry by developing the application of hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Of course, behind this is a very grand national strategy, the so-called "a big game", I just speculate about it, but we can imagine that with the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles, the preparation cost of hydrogen is falling at a rate of "visible to the naked eye".
At this time, both fields can exert efforts at the same time, which is undoubtedly very helpful for surpassing the century-old "technical seal" set by Europe and the United States, ensuring the implementation of the food security strategy, and getting rid of the dependence on a single fossil energy.
03
Where does hydrogen come from?
Returning to the availability of hydrogen energy, we know that there are three sources, one is Grey Hydrogen prepared from fossil fuels, and the other is green hydrogen, that is, hydrogen made from renewable energy sources. There is also a blue hydrogen, the main source is natural gas.
In terms of hydrogen preparation, although China is already the world's largest hydrogen producer, it is "mainly composed of fossil energy hydrogen production and industrial by-product hydrogen, coal to hydrogen and natural gas hydrogen production account for nearly 80%, chlor-alkali, coke oven gas, propane dehydrogenation and other industrial by-product hydrogen accounted for about 20%, renewable energy hydrogen production scale is still very small."
That is, it is basically gray hydrogen, how small is green hydrogen? According to the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, the output of electrolyzed water to hydrogen in 2019 is only about 500,000 tons.
Moreover, the cost of electrolyzing water to hydrogen is frighteningly high. However, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, believes that hydrogen production from renewable energy is an inevitable choice to adhere to the path of green and low-carbon development.
When it comes to our current domestic renewable energy hydrogen production route (green hydrogen route), there are two main ones:
First, through solar energy, wind energy, through photovoltaics, to electrolyze hydrogen production;
Second, plants and biological fermentation ethanol from hydrogen storage are reformed to produce hydrogen.
However, these are still in the initial stage of exploration. Due to space limitations, this article will not expand on this. Bloomberg NEF is optimistic that these costs should come down as innovation and scale expand.
That is, as the installed capacity of renewable energy continues to expand, the problem of efficiency can be transformed into a cost problem.
Bloomberg NEF also estimates that with the expansion of technology scale and the improvement of distribution efficiency, the production cost of renewable hydrogen in most parts of the world can be reduced to 0.70 to 1.60 US dollars / kg before 2050, making it possible to compete with the price of natural gas in China, India, Germany and Scandinavia.
More optimistically, as the Hydrogen Council says, the cost of hydrogen to end-users will fall by 60 percent by 2030, and the technology will become an alternative to traditional fuels in individual applications. That is, the former bread letter and academician said, "hydrogen substitution is the key."
04
Commercial applications are dominant
In terms of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, according to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" released last year, by 2025, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 100,000. By 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million.
However, the goal of the "Planning" is honestly reduced by half, by 2025, the initial establishment of a hydrogen energy supply system based on industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production nearby utilization, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have about 50,000 vehicles, and deploy a number of hydrogen refueling stations.
In addition, the hydrogen production capacity of renewable energy has reached 100,000-200,000 tons/year, which has become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption and achieved carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1 million-2 million tons/year.
Moreover, the "multi-scenario" application of hydrogen energy in the field of commercial vehicles (such as long-distance passenger transport, long-distance freight, logistics, terminals, mines and other long-distance heavy-duty areas) is expanding more rapidly. Just like this Beijing Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games, the demonstration has a total of nearly 1200 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with a cumulative carbon reduction of 2200 tons, ensuring the carbon neutrality and zero carbon emissions of the entire Beijing Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said that from the perspective of the demonstration operation scenes in various places, the comprehensive development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles has entered the demonstration application of commercial vehicles "multi-scenario".
The life of fuel cells generally reaches more than 10,000 hours, and some fuel cell vehicle systems in operation have reached 30,000 hours.
However, we still have to soberly realize that in the short and medium term, mainland hydrogen energy vehicles will still be dominated by commercial vehicles. As of 2021, the number of domestic fuel cell vehicles is only 8936. The 50,000 vehicles listed in the "Planning" in 2025 is not radical, compared with the expected target of 5 million to 6 million new energy vehicles this year, the gap is clear at a glance.
Ouyang Minggao also said that mainland fuel cell vehicles are still in the product introduction period and are entering a growth period of rapid decline in application costs. He also suggested that the mainland hydrogen fuel cell is relatively weak in terms of technical reserves, and should establish a hydrogen energy innovation platform as soon as possible, carry out key core technology research and talent training, and create a self-reliant and self-reliant scientific and technological system.
In any case, the hydrogen energy strategy has become a national strategy side by side with the electric new energy strategy. Moreover, from the perspective of market space, the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance calculated in the "China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry White Paper" that by 2050, hydrogen energy is expected to account for about 10% of China's energy system, hydrogen demand is close to 60 million tons, and the annual economic output value is more than 10 trillion yuan.
The ideal is quite plump, but we must also be wary of the chaos of the hydrogen energy industry overheating again. From a regional point of view alone, more than 20 provinces and more than 40 prefecture-level cities on the mainland have issued hydrogen energy plans, and more than 30 hydrogen energy industrial parks have been built, and the planned industrial scale has reached trillions of yuan.
"Once released, chaos, unification will die", these historical lessons have happened again and again, and I think the development of the hydrogen energy industry cannot avoid this "pit" with a high probability.
But in the long run, since the direction is right, the price is inevitable, and it is good to enter the game and cherish it.
Wang Xiaoxi
Wider than the sky
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