Since 2020, when the mainland proposed to strive for the "double carbon" goal of "achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060", the whole country has actively taken action under the guidance of this goal. According to statistics, as of now, a number of local governments, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and other places, have said that they will achieve carbon peaking in advance during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Among them, the "China Auto Industry Development Report (2020)" pointed out that the automotive industry reached carbon peak by 2028 ahead of schedule, reduced emissions by more than 20% on the basis of carbon peak in 2035, and achieved nearly zero emissions in 2050.
It is understood that automobile carbon emissions mainly include two parts of material cycle carbon emissions and fuel cycle carbon emissions, of which the carbon emissions of the material cycle include the carbon emissions of raw material supply, manufacturing, logistics and transportation and tax utilization, while the fuel cycle carbon emissions include the carbon emissions caused by electric energy, hydrogen energy, fuel and other fuels used in the process of automobile travel. In 2020, the carbon emissions of passenger cars in mainland China will be about 332 million tons, of which carbon emissions from the fuel cycle account for 74% of the carbon emissions in the life cycle of passenger cars.
Carbon emissions in the life cycle of passenger cars of different fuels in mainland China in 2020, image source: Gaz Automotive Research Institute
According to the statistics of China Automobile Center, in the carbon emissions of passenger cars with different fuels in the mainland in 2020, the carbon emissions generated by diesel vehicles and gasoline vehicles are mainly in the travel link, while the carbon emissions of new energy vehicles are mainly derived from battery production and electric energy supply.
Most car companies plan to become carbon neutral by 2050
Carbon reduction in the automobile industry is inseparable from the efforts of suppliers, car companies, governments, consumers and other aspects, among which car companies, as the direct providers of automotive products, play a pivotal role in it. Up to now, a number of car company groups around the world have announced the timetable for achieving carbon neutrality in the whole life cycle of enterprises, most companies will lock in the time to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, a small number of enterprises advanced to 2040, such as Volvo and GM, Mercedes-Benz announced that the time to achieve carbon neutrality is 2039, which is more than 5 years earlier than most car companies.
Carbon neutrality timetables and carbon reduction initiatives of some car companies, image source: Gaz Automotive Research Institute
In order to achieve carbon neutrality in the whole life cycle of automobiles on schedule, car companies need to formulate a series of measures from the aspects of raw material supply, production links, travel links, and recycling. For example, in order to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, Toyota set a milestone in 2025 and 2030, respectively, stipulating that in 2025, more than 5.5 million electric vehicles will be sold worldwide, and the average global carbon dioxide emissions of new cars will be more than 30% less than in 2010; in 2030, Toyota will launch 30 BEV models, with sales reaching 3.5 million, and the average global new car co2 emissions will be reduced by 35% compared with 2010.
In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, Volkswagen has developed a full-life cycle carbon reduction action around the four dimensions of climate change, resources, air quality and environmental compliance, and launched the 2030 "NEW AUTO" strategy. In the 2030 "NEW AUTO" strategy, Volkswagen mentioned that it will launch a scalable platform SSP in 2026, and all its brands and classes of models will be built on this super platform, and by 2030, Volkswagen's electric vehicle product sales in China will account for 50%.
Nissan also proposed to achieve carbon neutrality of the entire corporate operation and product life cycle by 2050, Nissan Motor Company Board Member, Nissan Motor Company Representative Executive Officer, President and CEO Makoto Uchida said in an interview with Gaz Motors that in order to achieve this goal, Nissan Motor plans to achieve 100% electric drive of new models in the core market, including the Chinese market, in the early 2030s, while using innovative technology to transform the factory and transform the "Nissan Smart Factory" Introduced to major plants around the world, Nissan plants will reduce CO2 emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 2019. In addition, Nissan Motor is currently working to build a comprehensive electric vehicle ecosystem, including optimizing the use of electric vehicle batteries, improving energy management, and recycling modes for reprocessing, recycling, remarketing, and reusing on-board batteries.
Four suggestions for carbon reduction in the automotive industry
Due to the long supply chain of the automobile industry, it brings great challenges to carbon reduction, at the same time, the mutual promotion and containment of the energy side, the technical end and the user end, as well as the imperfection of relevant policies and measures, have brought great challenges to the automotive industry to achieve a double carbon strategy. Based on the current pressures and challenges facing the automotive industry in terms of carbon reduction, analysts at the Gaz Automotive Research Institute have given the following four suggestions.
Recommendation 1
Incremental markets should be as electrified or even zero-carbon as possible.
The incremental market should be as electrified or even zero-carbon as possible, image source: Gaz Automotive Research Institute
Gaz Automotive Research Institute analysts pointed out that the current promotion of car companies to peak oil consumption before 2025 is the use of carbon peak before the 3-year platform period to adjust the transition to ensure carbon neutrality, car companies 5 years in advance to achieve the peak of oil consumption, can allow them to have a relatively long platform period, in order to adjust product results, and provide a transition time for technical layout and transformation, to avoid the later due to insufficient time and one-size-fits-all products.
In addition, the incremental market during the transition period should be dominated by electrification technology and zero-carbon technology. According to the forecast, in 2050, the mainland passenger car ownership will reach a peak, when the market ownership is about 410 million, that is, on the basis of the current ownership of nearly 200 million vehicles, if the incremental market during the transition period is based on electrification technology and zero-carbon technology, then it will effectively reduce the carbon emissions of the automobile industry as a whole.
Recommendation two
Construct an energy recharge network with clean electricity as the main body to achieve zero carbon at the source
Build an energy supply network with clean electricity as the main body, image source: Gaz Automotive Research Institute
Major car companies will mention significantly increasing the proportion of sales of electrified products in their actions to achieve carbon neutrality. Although the popularity of new energy models is one of the important measures to reduce carbon in the automobile industry, because a large proportion of the electricity currently used in the mainland comes from thermal power, this has caused the carbon emission focus of new energy vehicles to shift to battery production and power supply, so to achieve carbon neutrality in the whole life cycle of the automobile industry, it is necessary to build an energy supply network with clean electric energy as the main body to achieve zero carbon at the source.
At this stage, the national and enterprise levels are accelerating the creation of a charging and replacing power station energy replenishment system, the short-term goal is to gradually form a slow charging, fast charging, super fast charging and extremely fast charging power supply network through the way of enterprise self-construction and taking into account the existing third-party charging piles on the market; the medium-term goal is to quickly introduce renewable clean energy, to achieve the consumption substitution of electric energy for fossil energy and the production substitution of clean electric energy for thermal power; in the long term, it will focus on the use of V2G and other technologies to achieve peak shaving and valley filling, and the vehicle-mounted distributed energy storage and residential, office buildings, Factories, shopping malls and other places form an energy linkage network, thereby reducing the overall power consumption of society.
Recommendation three
Vigorously develop low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies to achieve zero carbon travel
Vigorously develop low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies, image source: Gaz Automotive Research Institute
In the face of double carbon pressure, optimizing product structure and discovering new power has become the consensus of major car companies. Toyota, Volkswagen, and Nissan, mentioned above, have all proposed to increase the sales share of electrified models in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and have formulated countermeasures in the field of production technology.
In fact, at different stages of enterprise development, the technical route taken and the target path of carbon reduction are not the same. The primary goal of traditional power vehicles is to reduce carbon, and at the product level, we can start from eliminating oil tiger models and gradually reducing the proportion of sales of traditional models; hybrid vehicles are a key step towards low carbon, which requires enterprises to focus on the development of diversified hybrid models; and ultimately to achieve zero carbon, more BEV and FCEV products are needed, and enterprises must also develop e-Fuel fuel internal combustion engine models in a timely manner.
Recommendation FOUR
Establish a closed-loop mechanism for the supply of raw materials and a sound carbon offsetting mechanism to achieve zero carbon production and enterprises
Raw material recycling and carbon offsetting mechanisms, Image source: Gaz Automotive Research Institute
If we focus on the carbon reduction action of the whole life cycle of the entire automobile industry, in addition to optimizing the product supply side and the travel end, it is equally important to establish a closed-loop mechanism for the supply system of raw materials and a perfect carbon offset mechanism. Analysts at the Gaz Automotive Research Institute pointed out that the establishment of a material recovery system and the use of renewable materials at the production end can form a closed-loop management of the supply of automotive raw materials, while reducing excessive dependence on resources; the formation of an effective carbon offset mechanism at the enterprise end is equally important for carbon reduction in the automotive industry, and car companies or suppliers should lay out renewable energy projects in a timely manner to obtain a certain carbon offset quota to offset excess carbon dioxide emissions.
Article source: Sohu.com