The latest research predicts that the automotive sector is expected to achieve carbon peaking around 2027

Beijing News Express (reporter Zhang Lu) "Transformation and challenges - how to help China's automotive sector carbon peak and carbon emission reduction" released on January 18, the report predicts that under the existing policy scenario, the automotive sector is expected to achieve carbon peaking around 2027, the automotive sector will face a lack of emission reduction after the carbon peak, and the proportion of sales of zero-emission vehicles represented by electric vehicles needs to be greatly increased.

Dense traffic on the streets of Beijing. Figure/IC photo

After the carbon peak in the automotive sector, it is expected that there will be a three-year emission platform period

The report, jointly released by the international environmental protection agency Greenpeace and the All-China Environmental Protection Federation, predicts the change in carbon emissions after the peak of Carbon in China's automotive sector. As an important source of carbon emissions, the progress of carbon reduction in the automotive sector will significantly affect the achievement of China's dual carbon target. In 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China reached 3.521 million units, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. Even so, carbon neutrality in the automotive sector still has a long way to go.

The report predicts that under the existing policy scenario, the automotive sector is expected to achieve a carbon peak around 2027, with a peak of 1.746 billion tons. After reaching the peak, it will not decline immediately, but will form a three-year emission platform period, and the average annual carbon emission change during the platform period is less than 1%.

According to the analysis of different models, the carbon emissions in the passenger car field will peak in 2027, with annual emissions of about 940 million tons when they reach the peak; the carbon emissions in the passenger car field have reached a peak and will maintain a trend of decreasing year by year; the carbon peak time in the truck field will be 2028, and the annual emissions will be 719 million tons when it peaks.

The report calls on major auto companies to stop selling fuel vehicles in the Chinese market by 2030

According to the analysis of the report's data, carbon emissions in the automotive sector will fall by 11% from the peak in 2035. However, this reduction is still far from helping China's carbon neutrality goal. Assuming that the automotive sector is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the average annual carbon emission reduction in the automotive sector needs to reach a peak-to-peak amount of about 3% between 2027 and 2060, and correspondingly, the carbon emissions of the automotive sector in 2035 need to be reduced by at least 20% compared with the peak-to-peak in 2027, otherwise it will affect the automotive sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

To achieve this reduction, zero-emission vehicles should account for at least 63% of new cars sold in 2030 and at least 87% by 2035. The report calls on relevant policy-making departments to enhance the ambition of the automotive sector to cope with climate change, increase the proportion of zero-emission vehicle sales, and strengthen investment in related supporting infrastructure to support the rapid growth of zero-emission vehicles.

To achieve these carbon reduction targets, zero-emission vehicles should account for at least 63% of new vehicles sold by 2030. The report calls on major auto companies to accelerate the production and sales of zero-emission vehicles, stop selling fuel vehicles in the Chinese market by 2030, and achieve zero-emission transformation as soon as possible.

Beijing News reporter Zhang Lu

Trainee Editor Chen Jing Proofreader Li Lijun