Recently, Weichai Power held a 2021 annual performance conference, Weichai Group Chairman and CEO Tan Xuguang made a statement on the industry and new energy development, which immediately caused a lot of discussion. For Tan Xuguang's point of view, because the angle of the station is different, naturally there are also different words, and it is not good to comment on right and wrong.
Next, we may wish to explore some of the views he said together to see if the development of new energy is really as Tan said, there are many problems?
Tan Xuguang said that there are many uncertainties in the current external environment, including economic downturn, sudden Russian-Ukrainian conflicts, etc., affecting the supply chain links including chips, which may have a greater impact on vehicle companies. However, he believes that the impact on engine companies is not very large.
Yes, for the whole vehicle, there are many parts involved, and the number of chips is very large. The engine is only a part of the vehicle, so in the complex international environment and industry environment, the natural impact of engine production and sales is not large. But then again, if the production capacity of the whole vehicle declines due to the shortage of chips, will the sales of the engine also be affected?
Tan Xuguang also mentioned that double carbon, including new energy, can not be separated from reality, eager to achieve, engaged in sports carbon reduction, and stepped on the brakes. In recent years, the new energy industry has been more lively, there has been a "swarm of bees", and then disorderly competition, new energy vehicles, especially passenger cars, will have a catastrophic overcapacity.
The author also has a different view on this. The speed of new energy is due to the market demand for new energy vehicles. We can also see that although there are more companies entering the new energy market at present, there are still difficulties in delivery for those companies that are seriously building cars. Among them, on the one hand, it is limited by the supply of parts, on the other hand, it is also due to the rapid rise in consumer demand.
As for disorderly competition, the author also does not agree, because, for the market, the so-called competition is more of a competition of product strength, as long as you have the strength, naturally do not worry about selling. If it is like some PPT car manufacturers, there is no need to compete, because their cars have no chance to appear.
In fact, as far as the current competitive situation of new energy vehicle companies is concerned, the price is generally set online, and the price is more simple and direct than that of traditional fuel vehicles. In terms of models, as The Three Electrics become more mature, the intelligence is more advanced, the cockpit is more luxurious, and the competition is more about the strength of the service. For example, channel construction and delivery of services, etc. In short, from the perspective of reality, there is no disorder. As for overcapacity, don't forget, China's market is the world's largest market, once the fuel switch to new energy on the day, I am afraid that only supply exceeds demand!
Tan Xuguang also said that there are many companies involved in private activities, inflating wealth through the capital market, resulting in disorderly capital expansion of new energy in the capital market. In fact, not only in the field of new energy vehicles, but also in all walks of life, capital is everywhere. Although, capital will be greedy, but it is also a booster. It is precisely because of the entry of capital and the expansion of wealth in the capital market that the enthusiasm of this industry has been stimulated and a new industry can develop rapidly. As for vicious capital, it can only be said that the forest is big and there are birds, if it is only to make money, and not to seriously build cars, it will eventually be eliminated by the market.
In Tan Xuguang's view, fossil energy cannot be replaced in a short period of time on commercial vehicles, especially heavy commercial vehicles, non-road (construction machinery), ship power, and agricultural equipment. Needless to say, the emergence of anything new will have a process of development. For the future, we need to see the right trends. Therefore, fossil energy is destined not to be replaced in a short time, but what is this short time? Just like the development speed of the mobile Internet, it seems that there is no time for the traditional print media to reflect, and it is quickly switched. Therefore, whether it is a short time or a long time, everything depends on the progress of technology, not simply the definition of time.
Tan Xuguang also believes that the energy structure is a diversified combination, which is the future direction, in different countries, different regions, according to local conditions, will form different energy combinations. For example, in the Middle East, it is not certain whether they will replace fossil energy with new energy. Power batteries also have limitations, including charging, sources and raw material supply, and call on the outside world to rationally look at the current energy structure changes. In this regard, I don't want to talk about it, but I just want to say that the progress of science and technology and the development of the new energy industry determine what the future looks like. Whether it is diversified or unified ultimately depends on the speed of technological innovation.
For intelligent driving assistance, Tan Xuguang said that he never tells lies, assisted driving is the hope, specific environments can be achieved, and driverless technology can be used first in mining and other environments. He also said that L1 is OK, L2 is also so-so, and L3 is not possible. Well, what the big guy says always makes sense. Just like the rise of new car-making forces, who would have thought ten years ago? And my space station technology, our spacecraft, it's hard to say that those technologies that I never dared to think about suddenly came to my side. After all, intelligent driving assistance was first used on airplanes! Therefore, nothing is impossible, with the progress of science and technology and rapid development, everything is possible in the future.
Car world viewpoint
As we all know, Tan Xuguang is a business manager who dares to tell the truth, and is also a company leader who can develop the world's leading diesel engine. For his words, some people say that he is too conservative, but in the author's opinion, it is not Tan Xuguang who is conservative, but he is using his own way to guide the public opinion that is favorable to himself! In any case, in terms of tan Xuguang's achievements in leading Weichai Power, he is a successful business manager. As for his analysis of the new energy industry, listen to it, don't admit it!