Mercedes-Benz S, BMW ix, NIO ET7, Xiaopeng G9, Ideal L9... In 2022, a number of high-level intelligent vehicles equipped with lidar will be delivered, and the average lidar capacity will be about 2, which will accelerate the mass production of lidar to a certain extent and increase the development trend of the industrial chain of related industries.
On December 10, 2020, Mercedes-Benz's L3 level autonomous driving system was approved by the German Federal Traffic Authority. At the CES2022 exhibition, Sony's high-profile official announcement fully entered the intelligent car; NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Mobileye continued to upgrade their autonomous driving platforms, and the cooperation between car companies was further deepened; Mobileye announced that it would cooperate with Extreme Kr to release the world's first L4-class car in 2024.
With the acceleration of business layout and industrial investment in automotive intelligence, the era of automotive intelligence has quietly arrived, and 2022 will become the first year of global automotive intelligence. According to the calculation of Zhongtai Securities, the penetration rate of L2-level smart cars in 2022 will enter a period of rapid development of 20-50%, and L3-level smart cars are expected to achieve a small range of landing.
At the same time, car companies and first-tier capital have invested in lidar machine factories, and industrial alliance can not only accelerate the research and development breakthrough of advanced lidar technology, weaken the passivity of car companies in the face of technical route uncertainty, but also help the industrial chain to quickly reduce manufacturing costs and improve the cost performance of lidar in the future.
According to estimates, the current single cost of lidar is about 1,000 US dollars, and it is expected to drop to less than 500 US dollars in 2025, when the market size of lidar will exceed 25 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 is as high as 162%, which is the most elastic track under the wave of automobile intelligence.
At present, the algorithm can not fully compensate for the hardware perception defects, lidar is indispensable in high-level automatic driving, especially the L3/L4/L5 level of smart cars need to be equipped with 1/2/4 lidar respectively.
Valeo SCALA mirror lidar, the world's first laser radar with passing regulations, was installed in the Audi A8 in 2018, and the models that will be delivered in 2022 are basically rotators/MEMS solutions. This is also because the lidar industry chain is still immature, a variety of technical routes are blooming, and the semi-solid -- (905nm + rotor / MEMS + ToF) scanning scheme is relatively mature, and it is easiest to pass the vehicle regulation certification, becoming the mainstream choice for car companies to accelerate the car in the short term.
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The 2022 Hunan Auto Show is in close preparation and is scheduled to be unveiled at the Hunan International Convention and Exhibition Center during the "May Day" holiday. Known as the "most able to sell cars" auto show in the central region, hunan auto show not only attracts a full number of car brands, but also the latest products of many first-line brand car companies will also be airborne in Changsha and the first time in the country. It is understood that the above-mentioned high-level intelligent vehicles equipped with lidar will also appear at the 2022 Hunan Auto Show.