Yesterday, Tesla's fourth gigafactory, the Berlin plant in Germany, began delivery, and Musk personally delivered the key to the Model Y to the first owner.
Like the Shanghai factory delivery day two years ago, Musk was forced to open for business and danced on the spot. Although there is no musical accompaniment this time, it is presumably that the old horse is in a better mood than in Shanghai, because the opening of mass production in the German factory means that Tesla has a foothold in the three most important continents of the global auto market.
North America, Europe and Asia have always been the core of the global automotive market, and traditional auto giants such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai-Kia have taken these three continents as the support of their global strategies. In the era of the electrification revolution, Tesla became the first new car company to have production sites on three continents, and it took only 20 years.
Advancing into Europe
Due to frequent obstructions, protests by environmental groups, and slow formalities, the Berlin factory took nearly two and a half years from construction to delivery, which is eight months later than Musk's set delivery time (July 2021).
Although Musk thanked the German government in particular on delivery sites and tweets, the two-year construction time did not have a satisfactory result for Musk. And on the day of delivery, a large number of environmentalists protesting and demonstrating still gathered in front of the Berlin factory.
Back to the point, the Berlin factory finally waited for the day of delivery, which also means that Tesla officially entered the birthplace of the car and began to kick volkswagen and BBA.
As Tesla's first gigafactory in Europe, the Berlin plant is designed to produce 500,000 vehicles a year, with plans to produce model 3 and Model Y. At present, the Berlin plant only produces model Ys, producing 1,000 Model Ys per week, and it is expected that in the first half of this year, Model Y production will reach 30,000 units per month. As for when the Model 3 will be put into production, Tesla has not yet revealed. It is worth mentioning that the Current Mode Y battery at the Berlin factory is the 2170 battery supplied in Shanghai, and the highly anticipated 4680 battery version can only be mass-produced and loaded in Q3 or Q4 this year.
The completion of the Berlin plant will significantly increase Tesla's delivery capacity in Europe. According to JATO Dynamics data, Tesla will sell about 168,000 vehicles in Europe in 2021. Among them, the Sales of the Model 3 reached 141,400 units, beating the Renault ZOE model and becoming the best-selling pure electric model in the European market. However, from the perspective of brand influence, Tesla's market share has fallen from 31% in 2019 to 13.9%, significantly lagging behind Volkswagen (25%).
The core reason for Tesla's backwardness is that supply outstrips supply. As early as October 2020, Tesla, which has a tight global production capacity, opened the vehicle export business of the Shanghai factory, and the first batch of Model 3 exports was to Europe. Throughout 2021, Tesla's Shanghai factory will produce 480,000 units, of which 320,000 new cars will be sold in China and 160,000 will be exported to Europe.
Musk has said that Tesla can easily achieve 50% sales growth in 2021, that is, 1.5 million units in the world, and the biggest support is the increase in production capacity and the new Berlin factory. With the completion of the Berlin plant, the delivery capacity in Europe will be greatly improved. At the same time, the disappearance of shipping costs and tariffs is also expected to significantly reduce Tesla's price in Europe, accelerating the pace of Tesla's European expansion. It is particularly noteworthy that the Berlin factory is also the most advanced factory of Tesla's technology, the latest technologies such as 4680 battery, CTC body battery integration, and integrated casting body are equipped in Germany, coupled with high brand influence, Volkswagen and BBA are time to feel real fear.
Liberation of the Shanghai plant
The Berlin factory will not only benefit European consumers, but the liberation of the Shanghai factory will also bring three major benefits to the Chinese and even Asian markets.
First of all, since the launch of the export business at the Shanghai plant, the chinese consumer pick-up cycle has also been extended, from the initial week to now reach 16-24 weeks. As the capacity of the Berlin factory gradually climbs, Chinese consumers may not have to wait so long to pick up their cars in the future. Tesla also said that in the future, the Shanghai factory will mainly serve Chinese consumers.
Japan, South Korea, and Australia, which also rely on the Shanghai plant for exports, will also benefit. Tesla is also growing rapidly in these major markets. In 2021, Tesla sold more than 5,200 units in Japan, an increase of more than 174% from about 1,900 in 2020. In Australia, the Tesla Model 3 will sell 12,094 units in 2021, which looks very low, but the market share in Australia is as high as 60%. Moreover, Japan, South Korea and Australia have all increased subsidies for electric vehicles in recent years, and the liberation of the Shanghai factory has prepared Tesla to radiate these countries.
At the same time, Tesla is also actively expanding its production capacity in China. In November last year, Tesla publicized the EIA of the second phase of the Shanghai Gigafactory (Phase I) production line optimization project. According to the EIA report, the total investment in the production line optimization project is as high as 1.2 billion yuan, which will be completed as soon as April this year. In the coming months, Tesla will increase the capacity of its first factory to 22,000 units per week, equivalent to about 1.1 million units per year, according to sources.
1.1 million is far from the end of Tesla's Asian ambitions, and Tesla is also looking for a second factory in China. Last year, Beijing, Xi'an, Chongqing, Hefei, Jinan, Shenyang and other cities all reported "gossip" about building Tesla's second factory in China. Recently, it was revealed that Tesla's second factory is still in Shanghai and will be near the first factory. Whistleblowers said that once the second factory also achieves full speed operation, tesla's annual production capacity in Shanghai will be as high as 2 million vehicles.
What is the concept of 2 million vehicles? In 2021, Tesla will sell 936,000 units worldwide, and The sales volume of China's new energy vehicle market will be 2.989 million units. But even if the Chinese market is growing at a high speed, so much capacity is difficult to digest. Tesla has never wasted a little capacity resources, so who will take advantage of so much capacity? The answer may be the long-rumored cheap version of the model.
Earlier, Musk has repeatedly publicly stated that Tesla will build an entry-level model. At Battery Day in September 2021, Musk revealed that he is confident that he will be able to build a fully autonomous car for $25,000 in about three years. Previously, there were rumors that this model or named Model Q, in the domestic price of about 160,000.
160,000 is a very lethal price, for most Chinese families, 250,000 is not a small expenditure, many people's car purchase budget is about 150,000, which also leads to 10-200,000 models of A-class cars has always been China's largest automobile market, Tesla has no reason not to explore this market to expand market share.
It is conceivable that once the 160,000 Model Q is listed, it will inevitably cause a buying boom. More importantly, the current Chinese electric vehicle market is still a dumbbell structure, that is, the most sold are more than 250,000 high-end electric vehicles and low-end models within 100,000. The arrival of Model Q will promote the rise of the 100,000-200,000-level electric vehicle market and accelerate the transformation of China's electric vehicle market to a healthier and more mature shuttle structure.
In short, for Tesla, a series of linkage effects brought about by the completion of the Berlin factory, in addition to the completion of the European territory, the expansion of the Asian market will be further accelerated.
AUTHOR RushB
"Don't leverage, the bar is your right"