After the "five consecutive increases" in oil prices, No. 95 oil officially entered the "9 yuan era". 95 full, ruined, oil prices are too expensive, many people who buy cars will turn their attention to new energy vehicles, thinking that saving money is cost-effective. However, new energy vehicles themselves also face many problems. Under inflation, the high price of raw materials, the problem of lack of core is difficult to solve, subsidies are declining, etc., is the time of life and death of new energy vehicles coming? 01 Tesla price increased 3 times in 7 days, and Xiaopeng increased its price by 20,000 yuan today. Following the first round of collective price increases in early 2022, new energy vehicle companies have recently begun the second round of price increases.
In the past 10 days, Tesla has announced three times to raise the price of products, and the price of some models has increased by up to 30,000 yuan. On March 18, Xiaopeng Automobile raised the pre-subsidy price of the company's products by 10,100 yuan to 20,000 yuan On March 19, WM Motor announced that the price of its products would be raised by 7,000 to 26,000 yuan.
Nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced an increase in price, with an increase of as little as 1,000 yuan and as much as 10,000 yuan. The continuous rise in prices of lithium, nickel, and power batteries, the insufficient supply of superimposed chips, and the general increase in the production costs of electric vehicle manufacturers are the main drivers of the recent successive price increases. Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War on February 22, the price of LME aluminum has continued to reach new highs. Russia's refined nickel production accounts for 7.2% of the world's total, copper ore and refined copper production accounted for 4% and 3.7% of the world's total, respectively, and the continued turmoil and intensified sanctions in Europe and the United States will continue to push up commodity prices.
Since the second half of last year, the price of ningde era power batteries has increased twice, and new energy vehicle companies have spent 20,000 yuan more on the cost of purchasing cataline era batteries. Ideal Auto CEO Li Xiang posted that the increase in battery costs in the second quarter was very outrageous, and the overall price of used cars in the United States rose by 30%. In addition, compared with the beginning of last year, motors, tires, and frames rose by 20%, plastic parts rose by 35%, and cable prices increased by 25%. The production cost of car companies has generally increased by more than 20%. 02 Compared with traditional oil-producing vehicles, the cost structure of pure electric vehicles has undergone great changes. In traditional fuel vehicles, the engine, transmission system, body, automotive electronics, chassis, interior and exterior decoration generally account for 15%, 10%, 15%, 15%, 10% of the total cost, respectively. Among the costs of pure electric new energy vehicles, batteries, motors, and electronic controls account for the majority, with a total proportion of 67%, and the cost of batteries alone has reached 40%.
The power battery is mainly composed of cathode material, anode material, diaphragm, electrolyte, structural parts, BMS and so on. Among them, the positive electrode material, the negative electrode material, the separator and the electrolyte account for 45%, 10%, 10% and 10% of the battery cost, respectively. According to the cost of the vehicle, cathode materials account for about 20% of the proportion. Power batteries are mainly divided into ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries according to the different cathode materials. The upstream raw materials of ternary cathode materials are lithium, cobalt and nickel, and the upstream raw materials of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials are mainly lithium. Since 2021, the prices of cobalt, nickel and lithium have risen to varying degrees, resulting in a significant increase in the price of the cathode of power batteries. At the end of August 2021, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was about 100,000 yuan / ton, and in March 2022, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was about 500,000 yuan / ton.
According to the battery-grade lithium iron phosphate price increase of 100,000 yuan / ton, the cost of lithium iron phosphate vehicle increased by 3807 yuan, and the current round of lithium price increase led to an increase in the average cost of the vehicle by about 15,000 yuan. The anode material is mainly artificial graphite, the raw material is petroleum coke, and the price change is relatively stable compared with the cathode material. The proportion of raw materials for diaphragms is relatively low, and the price is stable. Due to the relatively high proportion of lithium salts in the raw materials of the electrolyte, the price of lithium resources has caused the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to rise, and the price of electrolyte is also at a high level. In addition to batteries, the industrial chain of motor, electronic control and other parts is long, and supply and demand are tight. As the "power heart" of new energy vehicles, the motor directly determines the performance of important indicators such as climbing, acceleration and highest speed of new energy vehicles. High-performance NdFeB permanent magnet material, mainly used in new energy vehicle drive motors. The upstream of the industry is mainly rare earth ore mining, rare earth smelting industry, the middle reaches are NdFeB material producers, the downstream is traditional fields such as consumer electronics, and emerging applications such as new energy.
From the upstream point of view, the supply and demand of rare earths is good, and in the middle reaches, the production capacity of high-performance magnetic materials is insufficient, and the concentration of the industry needs to be improved. The electronic control is an integrated circuit that controls the motor to work according to the set direction, speed, angle and response time through active work, that is, the automotive chip. Due to the complexity of the manufacturing process, at present, the degree of domestic autonomy in the field of electronic control is still far behind that of batteries. Only a few large brands have the ability to manufacture such chips, such as Toyota, Siemens, Hitachi, Toshiba, ENOVA and Yaskawa Electric, etc.; only by ATD, BAIC BJEV, represented by by byby BYD and BAIC BJEV, study this chip with the help of their experience and resources accumulated in vehicle and parts manufacturing. To sum up, this round of inflation has caused the price of commodity raw materials to rise, resulting in rising battery costs; while the long industrial chain and the time required to expand production have caused the supply and demand of motor electronic control chips to be tight, and multiple factors have superimposed, driving the cost of the whole vehicle to rise. 03 For new energy vehicles, the most important thing is not the problem of price increases or not price increases, but the question of who can survive smoothly after the price increases. Someone has calculated an account, and the good news of the rise in oil prices was instantly hedged by the price increase of electric vehicles. According to the current oil price of No. 92 of 8.6 yuan, the average fuel consumption is 8L/100km, and the fuel cost is about 13,760 yuan per year for 20,000 kilometers. The fuel cost of an ordinary fuel vehicle running 60,000 kilometers in 3 years is about 41,280 yuan. Compared with the Tesla Model 3, which is relatively cost-effective, the normal use of 100 kilometers of electricity consumption is about 15 degrees, one degree of electricity is charged 1.8 yuan, and the electricity fee of 100 kilometers is about 27 yuan. The electricity cost of 20,000 kilometers is 5,400 yuan, and the electricity bill of 60,000 kilometers in 3 years is 16,200 yuan. From the beginning of 2022 to the present, the Model 3 dual-motor all-wheel four-wheel drive version has risen by 28,000 yuan, plus the electricity bill of 60,000 kilometers in 3 years totaling 44,200 yuan, which has exceeded the fuel expenditure of fuel vehicles. In addition, in 2022, the new energy subsidy declined, down 30% from 2021, and the bicycle subsidy was reduced by about 5400 yuan. Combined with the rise in raw material prices and subsidies, the new energy vehicle companies in the market will definitely face more fierce competition. The sales volume of some car companies declined, and the supply of battery chips was insufficient, and eventually it could only be eliminated in all directions.
At the beginning of this year, the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference predicted that the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars in China will exceed 5.5 million units in 2022, and the market penetration rate will reach about 25%. Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 272,000 units in February 2022, up 180.5% year-on-year and down 22.6% month-on-month.
The association said that the price increase of new energy vehicles will inhibit demand to a certain extent, and if the price of raw materials for power batteries continues to rise in the future, it may adjust the forecast sales of new energy vehicles throughout the year. Under the pressure of tightening power battery supply brought about by many uncertainties, domestic vehicle companies have also begun to help themselves. Invest, invest, cooperate, and find ways to strengthen cooperation with upstream power battery companies. After all, if the upstream supply chain is broken, the price increase will not help, and it can only fail miserably.