Poster news reporter Liu Lu reported from Beijing
According to relevant data, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. The number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 7.84 million, an increase of 59.25% compared with the previous year. Among them, there are 6.4 million pure electric vehicles, accounting for 81.63% of the total number of new energy vehicles.
BAIC's substation
While new energy vehicles are hot in the market, new problems have also indirectly emerged, and battery endurance, charging time, and insufficient charging equipment have become the focus of public attention.
On the eve of the two sessions of the National People's Congress in 2022, Li Shufu, a deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Geely Holding Group, announced his "Suggestions on Increasing the Construction of Electric Vehicle Replacement System". The proposal calls for accelerating the construction of clear power exchange stations, further improving the relevant policies and regulations of power exchange models, and accelerating the standardization and generalization of power exchange modes to achieve efficient energy replenishment and cost reduction.
The construction of electric vehicle replacement system can fundamentally alleviate the shortage of electric vehicle charging equipment. What problems will be encountered in the construction of the substation itself? Is it feasible to build and replace power stations on a large scale? For consumers, which mode of charging and replacing is more economical?
Ushering in the first year of the power exchange?
In the government work report of the two sessions of the National People's Congress in 2020, Premier Li Keqiang proposed the construction of "two new and one heavy", and the substation was clearly included in the scope of new infrastructure construction, and the power exchange mode and the charging mode complemented each other. In April, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a new policy for new energy subsidies, clearly pointing out that new energy vehicles with a starting price of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, but the exception is for vehicles that support the power exchange model.
In the government work report of the two sessions of the National People's Congress in 2021, Premier Li Keqiang once again proposed to increase parking lots, charging piles, replacement power stations and other facilities to accelerate the construction of a power battery recycling system.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February 2022, there were 1405 substations in the country, of which 265 were headed by Beijing, although the current operators of the substations are only Weilai, Aodong and Hangzhou Botan, but the electric vehicle replacement and refueling model seems to be not far ahead.
In the field of new energy vehicles, Weilai began to invest in the construction of substations in 2018, and is the earliest company involved in this field in China. At present, the number of substations in Weilai in China is 873, ranking first, followed by Aodong and Hangzhou Botan, with 424 and 108 respectively.
Some people say that 2022 is the first year of electric vehicle replacement, in addition to Weilai, BAIC and other enterprises, Geely, Sinopec, PetroChina and Ningde times have also begun to enter the layout.
On January 24 this year, Geely's battery replacement brand "Ruilan Automobile" launched its first car model , Maple Leaf 60S " , which is mainly oriented at the B-side. Ruilan Automobile is a joint venture company established by Geely and Lifan Technology, which is committed to creating an intelligent power exchange ecology and is an important business segment of Geely's layout of the power exchange market. Geely plans to build 5,000 substations in 2025, covering 100 major cities and serving 1 million replacement models.
Reporters note that Sinopec also released news recently that it will plan to build 5,000 substations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
According to the research report of Soochow Securities, in 2022, the domestic power exchange will usher in the first year of discharge, and it is expected that by 2025, the number of new domestic power stations will exceed 16,000, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 60 billion yuan.
Swapping power or facing more expenses
In order to understand the power exchange mode, the poster news reporter visited the substations of Weilai and BAIC in Beijing. At present, BAIC and Aodong have cooperated to launch a replacement power station only for taxis, while the replacement power station of Weilai is only open to Weilai users.
Nio's substation
It is understood that the number of Weilai substations in Beijing is about 70, and the reporter has successively gone to Lishuiqiao, Datun Road and Chaoyang Park to understand the situation. The staff of the Lishuiqiao substation told reporters that at present, weilai's substation has a new and old distinction, the number of storage batteries in the old substation is 5, while the number of storage batteries in the new substation is 13, and the construction of the new substation is more complicated. "The busiest substations may change batteries 100 to 120 times a day, while the substations with fewer vehicles have about 30 to 40 units a day."
The reporter learned from the staff of the replacement power station that before 2020, Weilai proposed an unlimited number of free power exchange policies for car buyers, but after 2020, the policy changed. Car buyers only have 6 free power exchange opportunities a month, and they need to be charged for more than one time.
The reporter observed at the scene of the replacement power station, without queuing, the tram replacement time is generally 5 minutes, and if there is a queue time, it will be extended. In the Chaoyang Park replacement power station reporter random interview, according to the Owner of Weilai Car, there is no queue will be fast, but when there are many people, it still requires up to 30 minutes of waiting. During the random conversation, the reporter also found that many power exchange car owners bought cars before 2020 and can always enjoy unlimited free power exchanges without any cost.
However, users who are not eligible for this policy will need to pay a power exchange fee. Weilai replacement power station employees told reporters that the replacement power station is charged according to commercial electricity, about 1 yuan for one degree of electricity, plus 0.5 yuan for service fees, and the average calculation is about 1.5 yuan for one kilowatt hour of electricity, and the closer to the city center, the higher the cost. "The cost of each power exchange is generally about a few tens of yuan." Compared with charging piles, it seems that the cost of changing electricity is higher.
The reporter learned from the Weilai Automobile Experience Store that the replacement power station is currently the main publicity point of Weilai and will be recommended to customers. With the power exchange, Weilai also launched a rental battery model in the purchase of cars.
The sales staff of Weilai Automobile Experience Store told reporters that there are currently two ways to choose, one is to buy batteries, and the other is to rent batteries. Taking the 100 kW battery as an example, the price of buying a NIOes6 for the whole vehicle is more than 400,000 yuan, and if you take the plan to rent a battery, you only need to pay 275,400 yuan. However, the customer will also have to pay a battery rent of 1480 yuan per month thereafter.
The reporter roughly estimated that the battery life is about 8 years, according to the monthly rent of 1480 yuan estimated, 8 years down, the rent accumulated up to 140,000 yuan. The official price of a 100kWh long-endurance battery in Weilai is 58,000 yuan, which is significantly lower than the cost of renting a battery. Coupled with the cost of power exchange, in the long run, the cost of the power exchange model is higher.
Experts interpret the dilemma behind it
Dilemma one: High cost of replenishment is the inversion of the horse
As a power replenishment mode, the substation will indeed save time than the charging pile, but from the perspective of economic investment, the construction cost of the substation is much higher than that of the charging pile equipment.
In view of the feasibility of promoting the construction of the power exchange system, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, expressed his views in an interview with poster news.
"At present, the construction and development of the power exchange system in the local field is still good, such as rental, network contracting, heavy trucks, there is a certain space." However, increasing the construction of the power exchange system from the social level is not feasible in Cui Dongshu's view.
First of all, from the economic point of view, the problem of building a replacement power station will raise the cost can never be bypassed. Building a substation, plus the cost of building a charging system, power expansion, land costs, etc., millions is the most basic concept.
Secondly, it is not realistic to unify the batteries of all electric vehicle brands, which will increase the complexity of vehicle design on the one hand, and bring greater cost pressure on the other hand. "Battery design should consider the best performance of the car, not to facilitate the replacement of the battery, the replacement of electricity will increase the design cost of the battery, not the mainstream private car needs."
Cui Dongshu mentioned that the power exchange itself is a heavy asset industry, which is quite different from the main direction of car companies. As a kind of energy replenishment mode, the promotion of 5 minutes to change the power, but the 5 minute power change can only be in the case of no queue, plus the time to drive to the power station, it will also take a lot of time. "The implementation of the power exchange system must first consider the cost of users, if the cost of power exchange, time cost, vehicle design costs must be borne by consumers, in order to achieve power exchange, is the end of the upside down."
Jia Xinguang, an industry insider, believes that changing electricity will not only increase costs, but also involve property rights issues. "At present, both the domestic power exchange and charging models are advocated, and the government's attitude does not negate either party, and there is also a certain support for power exchange, but there is always a suspicion in the industry about power exchange."
Jia Xinguang mentioned that after the user purchases the whole vehicle, the property rights ownership problem will occur during the replacement of the new battery and the old battery. Of course, some brands have also proposed to rent batteries, but it is still difficult to achieve interchangeability between different brands of cars.
At the same time, from the perspective of suppliers, the power exchange will face higher cost inputs. A replacement power station to prepare batteries, but the purchase cost of batteries is very high, Jia Xinguang revealed that half of the price of the car is on the battery. For example, it is estimated that the intermediate distance from Beijing to Qingdao is 800 kilometers, if a service area is built for 100 kilometers, a substation is built in each service area, and 1,000 batteries are prepared for each substation, which is hundreds of millions of investment.
Dilemma two: unified standards are difficult to establish
In addition to the high cost of power exchange, in the promotion of electric vehicle power exchange system, the same problem can not be avoided is the standardization and unification of batteries. In Jia Xinguang's view, the unified battery specifications are unrealistic, "because the structure of the electric vehicle is not determined, the battery is placed under the seat in the early days, but the electric vehicles begin to propose the skateboard structure, the overall framework also bears the bearing role, and the design of each enterprise is difficult to unify." ”
In addition to structural design, another important reason why it is difficult to implement standardization is that there are too many categories of electric vehicles.
Jia Xinguang introduced that the smallest electric vehicle is the Wuling Mini, and the largest is a long-distance truck. The battery of the long-distance truck weighs 2-3 tons, and the Wuling mini battery weighs 300-400 kg. "It's just two ends, there are countless levels in the middle, there are too many brands of the car, and the differentiation is very large." From small to large batteries multiplied by dozens of models, it is not realistic to have a set of batteries. If each brand builds a replacement power station for its own users, there may be more than a dozen replacement stations in a service area, which is not possible. ”
Dilemma three: insecurity, difficult to make a profit
At present, the batteries of electric vehicles are mainly divided into two types, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. Jia Xinguang pointed out that due to the poor safety of lithium batteries, it is easier to catch fire after a collision. During the power exchange process, the possibility of the lithium battery being bumped into danger will become greater. If a battery stored in a substation catches fire, it can pose a greater danger. Ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are slightly less safe than each other, but it is precisely ternary lithium batteries that have higher storage capacity and long cruising range.
The reporter noted that the data disclosed by the China Automobile Association in February showed that the output of continental power batteries in February was 31.8GWh, an increase of 236.2% year-on-year, of which the output of ternary batteries was 11.6GW, accounting for 127.2% of the total output; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.1 GWh, accounting for 63.1% of the total output. From the perspective of battery loading, ternary batteries loaded a total of 5.8 GWh, up 75.6% year-on-year; lithium iron phosphate batteries loaded a total of 7.8 GWh, up 247.3% year-on-year.
In addition to safety, the difficulty of profitability of the power exchange model is also a problem, jia Xinguang believes that no profit is not sustainable.
In March last year, Weilai announced a set of power exchange data, Weilai users have accumulated more than 2 million times of power exchange, which means that on average, every 10 seconds, a car starts from the full power of the replacement power station, and the cumulative power supply for users is nearly 100 million kWh. However, if calculated according to 1.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour of electricity, WEILAI has accumulated 100 million yuan of electricity subsidies for users.
Regarding the involvement in the field of power exchange, Tesla is earlier. In 2013, Tesla did power exchange technology, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk even publicly demonstrated the power exchange technology. It said that the construction of the replacement power station will be built as soon as 2013, but the subsequent cancellation of the power exchange service is due to the high investment required for the construction of the power station, the utilization rate is not high, and the income is very small.
Tesla global vice president Tao Lin responded at the end of 2021 that Tesla actually did power exchange technology as early as 2013, and the power exchange can be completed in about 90 seconds, but after experiments and comprehensive consideration, it is believed that the charging mode has more advantages and is more conducive to accelerating the popularity of electric travel. In addition, improving charging efficiency and expanding charging piles are also very critical. The construction of charging lines covering more cities will be further accelerated.
Cui Dongshu said that the recovery cycle of the replacement power station is more than 10 years, and the general new energy replacement power station as a whole is losing money. Although the daily operation of the replacement power station can cover the daily cost, the fixed asset investment still has to be amortized for a long time. For example, the single station equipment of the substation is 2.6 million, the single station with 60 batteries costs a total of 2.5 million, plus the cost of daily maintenance and repair, the cost of a single station is 6-8 million, and the recovery cycle is very long.
Slow charging, home charging, night charging are the trend
At present, the most important problem to be solved is to increase the number of charging piles, to give priority to solving the problem of steamed bread, and then talk about the cake. Jia Xinguang believes that "power replacement is not a general direction, the important thing is that the charging pile, infrastructure to come up, to target the use of most users, for more users, more remote users, to provide more convenient facilities." ”
Cui Dongshu believes that the core energy replenishment method supported by the state in the future should still be slow charging and home charging, rather than replacing electricity. The advantage of slow charging is that the cost is low, the grid tolerance is high, and it is good for the battery, and home charging solves the problem of queuing for charging.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in December 2021, the penetration rate of the domestic new energy passenger car market reached 20.6%. It is predicted that in 2022, China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million, an increase of 42% year-on-year, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%. However, in terms of charging facilities, the ideal of "one car and one pile" is still difficult to achieve.
According to the information disclosed by the China Automobile Association, as of February 2022, 381,000 pieces of data on the reasons for not building charging facilities with vehicles have been sampled. Among them, the three factors of the group's users building piles by themselves, the lack of fixed parking spaces in the place of residence, and the non-cooperation of the residence property are the main reasons for not building charging facilities with the car, accounting for 48.6%, 10.3% and 9.9% respectively, a total of 68.8%, and there is no fixed parking space in the work place, it is difficult to apply for installation, and the user chooses a special station for charging and other reasons, accounting for 31.2%.
Jia Xinguang said that to alleviate the shortage of charging piles, charging queues and other issues, but also to hope to achieve technological progress. Solved the fast charge, the pressure of the charging station will be much smaller, "technically fast charge, lithium batteries can not be solved, can only produce new types of batteries." ”
In addition to slow charging and home charging, Jia Xinguang also mentioned night charging. In the national energy development scenario, trams are defined as energy storage devices, rather than energy consumption devices.
In 2021, Huang Xuenong, director of the Electricity Department of the National Energy Administration, said at the press conference of the State Council's new office that electric vehicles may become energy storage devices and discharge electricity to the power system. Huang Xuenong mentioned that when the electric vehicle is in the trough, the power system charges it; the peak of electricity consumption allows the electric vehicle to discharge the power system. An electric vehicle can become an energy storage device for the power system, and thousands of large-scale electric vehicles are very beneficial to the power system.
At the same time, night charging also has an advantage, that is, to help charging stations solve the problem of profitability. According to the time-sharing electricity price standard, the electricity price at night will be one-third cheaper, or even halved.
In the long run, the battery problem has not been solved, and only the way to solve the energy supplement is to treat the symptoms rather than the root cause. Jia Xinguang believes that the direction of battery efforts is not to be able to run farther, but to achieve better performance and lower cost.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in response to a poster news question that the charging model has been developing normally, and from the current growth of charging equipment, it is basically matched. Since last year, the power change has begun to be accepted by more people, which is a process of gradual recognition, such as in the business model, taxis, last-mile replenishment and so on. But overall, the power exchange also needs to be finally recognized by the market and accepted by users before it can usher in development. In view of the standardization of the power exchange system and the unification of the battery, Xu Haidong said that it will involve the design of the car, and it is difficult to achieve unification. At present, taxis are more suitable for changing electricity. In the future, power replacement should be an important supplement to the energy replenishment mode, low peak charging, peak power replenishment, will become a more common situation.