"Fill up one tank of oil to buy a bicycle, and fill up four tanks of oil to buy an electric car!" Although there is an element of banter in this sentence, in the face of the rapid rise in oil prices, many fuel car fans have become half-hearted.
However, new energy vehicles seem to have their own small temper, and the repeated price increases have caught many people off guard. "Once you ignored my love and answer, but now I make you unable to climb high" has become the "inner monologue" of some models at the moment.
On March 10 and March 15, Tesla raised the price of some Models of Model 3 and Model Y twice, with the largest increase of 30,000 yuan.
On March 11, the 2022 Hongguang MINIEV was launched, except for the light (mai) pine (bu) model (dao), the price of the rest of the models was raised by 2,000 yuan.
However, in addition to Tesla and Wuling, since the beginning of 2022, a number of brands have announced price increase plans. GAC E-An, SAIC Roewe, BYD, Euler, Geometry, Volkswagen ID Series, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Weima, Nezha, Zero Run.
It doesn't matter whether the traditional or the new forces, the autonomous or the joint venture. When the price rises, no car company is innocent.
For car companies, there are thousands of reasons for price increases, chip shortages need to increase prices, policy changes need to increase prices, and raw materials need to be tightened. And when these elements are in a lump, the price increase is even more inevitable.
The new energy market is like a child of the country, and it will be better than the next year under the support of policies. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars in the domestic market reached 2.989 million units, with a penetration rate of 14.8%, which was a great increase compared with the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
According to the forecast of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market will exceed 5.5 million units in 2022, and the penetration rate will reach about 25%. Therefore, when the child becomes an adult, parents must let go and return it to a vast world.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022. It is clearly mentioned that in 2022, the state's subsidies for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021 and will be officially terminated at the end of the year.
In this way, it directly caused the first wave of price increases for new energy models in early 2022.
For example, Tesla, at the end of 2021, closely following the national policy, released a price increase plan, the Model 3 afterdrive version increased by 10,000 yuan, and the Model Y rear drive version increased by 21,088 yuan.
Another example is Xiaopeng and Weilai, who announced the "insurance price" policy early, and can enjoy the 2021 subsidy standard for limited time bookings. Although the way is not as rough as Tesla, it has not escaped the fate of price increases.
In addition, with the gradual expansion of the new energy market, the industry's demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel and other core raw materials for power batteries is also increasing, and the rise in price is inevitable.
In August 2021, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was still around 100,000 yuan / ton, but today, its price has stood at a high of 500,000 yuan / ton. The recent changes in the price of "demon nickel" caused by changes in the international situation have further aggravated the increase in the price of new energy vehicles.
The continuous surge in a short period of time will always be a pain that the new energy industry cannot bear. According to previous estimates by Morgan Stanley, rising nickel prices could lead to an increase in the cost of electric vehicles per bike by $1,000.
Therefore, Tesla will raise the price of related models twice in a week, and the most affected is the Model Y high-performance version, with a comprehensive increase of up to 30,000 yuan. Therefore, Wuling also could not contain the excitement and raised the price of the new Hongguang MINIEV.
From the perspective of sales, policies, raw materials and other aspects, the price increase of new energy models will be a long-term and continuous process. And in addition to the policy affecting subsidies, the purchase tax is also like the sword of Darkmos, hanging over the heads of many car companies.
The Announcement on the Relevant Policies For Exempting New Energy Vehicles from Vehicle Purchase Tax issued in 2020 writes that from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022, new energy vehicles will be exempted from vehicle purchase tax. What about the 2023 levy?
So-called, price reduction is like a cave flower candle, rare times; and price increases are like the new crown epidemic, repeated.
Regarding the price increase, from a policy point of view, the micro-pure electric vehicle represented by Hongguang MINIEV is the least affected. Because most of their cruising range is less than 300km, they are no longer in the ranks of subsidies.
However, from the perspective of rising raw material prices, these micro-pure electric vehicles have been greatly affected. Because the three-electric system occupies a large proportion of the cost of a vehicle, the room for adjustment when the price of key raw materials increases is very limited.
However, direct price increases are not realistic, and the selling point of these car owners is low prices, whether car companies or consumers, they have always been extremely sensitive to price changes.
On February 15, the white cats and black cats under the Euler brand were exposed to stop taking orders. Dong Yudong, CEO of the brand, later said frankly: "Affected by the decline in subsidies and the rise in raw material prices, every black cat sold in 2022 will lose more than 10,000 yuan." ”
So, who will do a loss-making deal?
Starting this year, more and more micro-pure electric vehicles will withdraw from the market. Although they still have a large volume, although "polarization" is still the current development direction of the domestic new energy market.
Among the 20 new energy models with the best sales in 2021, 7 are mini cars, accounting for 35%. The total sales reached 733926 vehicles, accounting for 38.2%, and the Euler black cat that sold a loss of 10,000 was also impressive.
Car companies can continue to do as always, of course, but also to make money. It's just that what you earn is not the money from selling cars, but the new energy points.
In 2020, Tesla's new energy positive points reached 860,000 points, and SAIC-GM-Wuling also scored 440,000 points. Faw-Volkswagen, Geely and other large fuel vehicle households have become veritable "point difficult households".
As a result, point trading has become a new direction of making money. Tesla made $1.58 billion by selling points in 2020 and $1.465 billion in 2021, when the price of a single point was about $2,500.
However, by 2022, with the further expansion of the new energy market, the supply and demand relationship of the integral market will also change. According to Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, the transaction price of a single point has dropped to 500-800 yuan.
However, in addition to the decline in the transaction price of points, the difficulty of obtaining points is also increasing year by year.
In June 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the revised "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", which modified the calculation method of single model points, and the most affected is the micro pure electric vehicle.
Taking the Hongguang MINIEV with a cruising range of 120km as an example, it can get 2 points / car in 2020, but after 2020, it can only get 0.75 points / car, a decrease of 62.5%.
Under the multiple pressures of subsidy decline, cost increase, and decline in integral income, micro-pure electric vehicles are facing unprecedented survival challenges.
So at this point, we may wish to return to the opening topic, the rise in oil prices can not afford to support oil cars, "cheap" disappeared can not afford to buy trams. In 2022, is it still worth buying a car?