The earth in 2021 is probably chaotic under the epidemic and chip shortage, I don't think I need to say it at the beginning. Anyway, for friends who buy a car at this stage, the most intuitive unfriendly is that the discount is smaller than before, and it is difficult to directly take the car, and the car that has to wait for two weeks before may have to wait for half a year.
Therefore, combined with this series of cognitions, predicting the completion of KPIs in 2021 of major automobile companies in advance is always mixed with a hint of sadness. The answer has to be revealed, especially in the current week, the Volkswagen Group, BMW Group, Porsche brand, Audi brand have all issued 2021 financial reports.
And the data of performance and making money are full of conflicts and contrasts of thinking. It can be a decline in sales but a sharp rise in profits, and it can be a rise in sales growth and profits.
The conflict of making money, the conflict of spending money
On March 15, volkswagen group issued a financial report, on March 16, BMW Group issued a financial report, on March 17, the Audi brand issued a financial report, and on March 18, Porsche issued a financial report.
Looking directly from the core indicator information:
Volkswagen Group, overall sales volume decreased by 6.3%, sales revenue increased by 12%, operating profit increased to 20 billion euros, cash flow increased to 8.6 billion euros;
BMW Group, overall sales increased by 8.4%, total revenue increased by 12.4%, net profit was a new record of 12.463 billion euros;
The Audi brand, overall deliveries were essentially flat at 1.692 million units in 2020, sales revenue increased by 6.2%, operating profit increased to 5.5 billion euros, and cash flow increased to 7.8 billion euros;
Under the Porsche brand, overall sales continued to increase, and more importantly, a number of financial indicators were highlighted, including a 15% year-on-year increase in operating income, an increase of 4.4 billion euros to 33.1 billion euros, and a profit from sales of 5.3 billion euros, a return on sales of 16.0%. Under multiple pressures, Porsche's profitability has increased to a very high new height, and even the sales of new energy vehicles account for about 25% of the share.
Mercedes-Benz's results were released in February, with total commercial + passenger sales down 5%, full-year turnover up 9%, pre-tax profit and net profit increasing at 29.1 billion euros and 23.4 billion euros, respectively.
In short, Germany, the leader of the world's automotive industry, its three cores, have all completed the handover display. The common point is that everyone makes money, income, cost reduction, profit, cash flow have increased, everyone is under pressure, chip shortage, upstream and downstream supply chains, and the impact of the epidemic.
The difference is that the sales trend of the three major groups, the ability to cope with the chip shortage, and new ways to make money. In the sales trend, BMW Group is growing positively, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen are declining, and BMW has also won the China + global luxury car sales championship. Volkswagen Group sales fell more, 6.3%, Mercedes-Benz less, 5%, and in view of the Volkswagen Group's second in the world, the overall figure of about 10 million units / year, the decline in sales figures is self-evident.
The ability to cope with the chip shortage is directly linked to the sales trend. Volkswagen has suffered the most damage in this round of chip shortage, a number of its multi-brand factories have stopped production, Mercedes-Benz / BMW is relatively good, such as BMW's solution idea is to rely on the strong cash flow ability, good checkout relationship, etc., to do a better response. Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen's solution ideas are basically the same, on the one hand, communicating with suppliers, on the other hand, giving priority to chips to high-margin hot models.
The new way of making money reflects the different ideas of different enterprises. The development rhythm of BMW Group and Mercedes-Benz Group is constant, and electrification is gradually and comprehensively transformed, doing a good job in global business, and further developing business in China. However, the development ideas of the Volkswagen Group have experienced relatively large new fluctuations.
In this week's release of the Volkswagen Group's earnings report, the proportion of content about the Chinese market has changed significantly from before. The information released includes that the Volkswagen Group occupies 16% of the Chinese market share, the Volkswagen brand accounts for 11%, and Porsche, Bentley and Lamborghini all set new sales records in China. However, in the most critical core link of the entire financial report, the Volkswagen brand clearly + focused on the performance of the Chinese market. This is different from the habit of many years before.
In addition, the contrast is that when the group announced its results, it showed the profitability of the Volkswagen brand in the US, Mexico and Canada markets in a larger way.
However, I do not want to put these contrasts on the current changes in international relations from the perspective of conspiracy theories, because combined with the comprehensive variables such as Volkswagen's current independent holding + joint venture + new brand (SAIC Audi) in China, there are actually situations that are not clear.
Therefore, only from the above figures, the basic information that can be seen is that German cars have responded well to the 2 major pressure tests of the global epidemic + chip famine in the world, at least in the topic of making money, they have completed a good performance. However, it can also be seen that the 3 major German car sales ideas are not the same, for example, the Volkswagen Group is the priority to adjust the production capacity to high-profit brands - Audi / Porsche / Volkswagen brand of high-profit models; Mercedes-Benz has not changed much, for the user's purchase needs to actively adjust; BMW is the best, basically completed the global market balance, in the core Of the Chinese market, there is no failure to pick up the car time in more than a quarter.
There is no doubt that the three think about China will be different in the future
Behind the shallow numbers, let's answer one of the hottest topics about the three. It is normal to have good sales and high profits, such as BMW. However, sales have declined, and profits have increased, how to do it.
Combined with more segmented data, the answer is actually very clear. In addition to the VW Volkswagen brand, which fell by 8.1%, Audi's -0.7% had almost no impact, while Porsche's sales increased by nearly 30,000 units, an increase of more than 10%, and the commercial vehicle business's MAN+ Scania increased by more than 25%; Bentley + Lamborghini also maintained growth.
The share and profits lost by Skoda and Volkswagen are well brought back by the products of high-value-added brands. The key point of growth of these high-profit brands mainly relies on the rapid growth of the Chinese market.
In other words, the core of the Volkswagen Group's financial report is the Chinese market, and the good results come from the Chinese market, but the Volkswagen brand does not have a particularly large number of scalable points in the Chinese market, and at the same time, it is doped with personnel changes/stock ratio changes/market structure changes.
Moreover, from behind this, we can also see a layer of differences between the Volkswagen Group and BMW/Mercedes-Benz, and a layer of variables. The difference is that volkswagen group had problems before globalization, from being forced to withdraw in the 1970s, to returning later, and finally to completing the reversal in 2015 after the new CEO Dies took office for seven years. After laying a good foundation for the new market, what it needs to do is to further expand the results, especially the transformation trend of intelligent electrification.
Therefore, it can be seen that in the overall strategy of the Volkswagen Group, the speed of development of the Chinese market will change accordingly. However, the degree of importance determined by the volume will not change. As for Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini, etc., it is another layer of gameplay. Porsche, which is about to IPO solo, is expected to develop rapidly in the future Chinese market, because there is obvious new potential.
As for the same thinking of BMW and Mercedes-Benz, it is that after the balanced development of globalization and the common iteration of product technology, the further study and deepening of the Chinese market has begun. BMW's stock ratio adjustment has been completed, and then BMW Brilliance's performance will be included in BMW's next fiscal year's financial report, while Mercedes-Benz plans to further increase the stock ratio and continue to take deep root in China to complete the force. For example, with the BMW X5 made in China, the Mercedes-Benz GLE is obviously considering doing the same action.
Write at the end:
Finally, the topic to be discussed is actually about the future of Volkswagen brands in China.
At present, the market share controlled by Volkswagen is still very advantageous, but compared with the previous operating quality, it has declined, and at the same time, it refers to terminal discounts, car price stability, used car value preservation, new car delivery, etc. Previously, a large number of models were in a leading position in the market segment, and the replacement of other competitors was largely based on the thinking of volkswagen. However, the situation has changed, and new changes are taking place in different classes from cars to SUVs.
During the transition period of electric vehicles, how to do a good job in the replacement balance of fuel/pure electricity, and at the same time rely on the companies it owns, to talk about the balance with the other two, is the topic.
As for whether the public is following this route to carry out the next advance, don't worry, wait until this time next year, the financial report will naturally say a new result.
In response to the question raised by the title, the idea of volkswagen group making money in China will be to rely on high-profit brands to break through, Volkswagen is basically stable, while BMW and Mercedes-Benz are more comfortable, invest in new technologies, increase intelligence, and then "lie and earn".