This is definitely a historic scene that has gone down in the annals of human history. As we all know, Musk opened a Tesla factory in Germany, danced a square dance in front of the first batch of Teslas, and officially kicked off the Tesla factory in Berlin, Germany, and at the celebration of the day, even german Chancellor, Olaf. Scholz was also present at the event.
So let's talk about whether the world's most cutting-edge car manufacturer, German cars, will be killed by Tesla in the United States?
Let me first come to a hypothetical conclusion, will Germany decline as a result?
Human development so far, has reached the era of the Internet and digital technology, and Germany in this regard has been completely empty, now the Germans use Microsoft, Apple, Google, Android, Amazon, Facebook, etc. are all American goods, and the most important energy for Germany is also incomplete! Germany, like the United States, was a very leading country in nuclear power technology, and at that time supplied 25% of the energy of each of the two countries! But what about ten years from now?
U.S. nuclear technology is well ahead of all other countries. However, Because of the strong opposition of the people ten years ago, Germany became the first country in the world to completely abandon nuclear weapons, and the consequence was that how to solve the 25% energy gap in Germany has become the biggest headache in Germany today!
In order to develop, Germany can only increase energy cooperation with Russia to solve the fundamental living problems of the people at home, so Germany has spent another ten years and invested a lot of money to build natural gas, oil and other pipelines on the border with Russia, but today's war between Russia and Ukraine makes us all see clearly, Germany engaged in these infrastructure construction ten years ago? Did they get more in return? We see at a glance!
Because German politicians like to follow the United States, Germany has now become an extremely fragile, unsafe and unstable country with extremely fragile energy, and what awaits him will be the soaring cost of electricity, natural gas, oil, production difficulties, and inflation!
Let me give you an example:
Germany's computer software and enterprise services, which is also a huge market of trillions of dollars. In the era when we sell software with CDs, the strongest in this industry is the German SAP (the software name of the enterprise management solution), and the American OracleIe (is a database for the Internet computing environment) and in the past 30 years, the world has seen these two companies compete for dominance, but because the later Internet era is fully coming, because the Germans themselves are not interested in the Internet, so that the German brand soon stepped aside. And now through the Internet to provide enterprise services, the best in this field is salesforce from the United States and Microsoft from the United States.
After saying the above, let's take a look at the data, now the per capita GDP of the United States and Germany, it is obvious that Germany has long been opened by the United States to a large gap, in fact, the rise and fall of a country is the rise and fall of an industry, if a country is very strong in important industries, then the country must be a strong country. If a country is weak in important industries, it means that the country is weak.
So the automobile industry is the last firewall that Germany must keep, in fact, the decline of German cars has long been a while, 1997 German cars accounted for nearly 12% of the market share in the entire world, to the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019, this data has become only 5.9% of the waist, today we all know that the biggest challenge of the automobile industry is the transformation of new energy, but at this point, Germany's car companies are developing at a speed like a turtle, and tesla facing a strong competitor in the United States, In the product and supply chain have been fully perfected, very mature.
But Germany's several famous car companies such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Daimler and other high-end brands that we are familiar with, that is, we commonly known as BBA, these electric vehicles are still in the era of "oil to electricity", that is, to take out the previous successful fuel car brand, the engine and gearbox inside are transformed, and then install batteries and motors, in theory, a pure fuel vehicle into a semi-electric vehicle, such as the BMW X3 we are familiar with has become ix3. So has such an oil to electricity change been recognized by the market?
Taking the Chinese market, which has the largest and most advanced infrastructure for electric vehicles, as an example, let's take a look at the latest data as follows:
In February 2022, the BMW ix3 sold more than 2,900 units in China;
The Mercedes-Benz EQC sold only 337 units;
The entire Audi E-Tron series combined sold only 514 units;
But the United States Tesla ModelY in the Chinese market on a single month sold more than 32,000 vehicles, and Model 3 sold more than 24,000 vehicles in a single month, adding up all the BBA electric models in Germany, less than a fraction of Tesla's, in fact, in fact, the sales data of all Tesla models, there is no need to compare with the German BBA electric models, because Tesla's data, even with the BBA's most successful fuel car series, such as bmw 3 series, 5 series, Mercedes-Benz GLC is better than all.
As such a huge market in the mainland, in theory, as long as anyone can nibble on it, it is a steady profit. In 2020, Germany sold more than 14 million cars, of which 40% were sold to China, so in the field of automobile sales, whoever gets China will get the world. If Germany's BB A electric model cannot be defeated in the Chinese market, then it is really dangerous for Germany' automotive industry, an important economic pillar.
Because the output value of the German automobile market accounts for 20% of the local GDP, the tax is 12%, providing 1 million jobs for Germany, so if Germany loses energy, loses the Internet, loses data technology, and loses the important economic pillar industry of the automobile, then I think Germany is really dangerous!
I wonder how you feel about the above analysis? You are welcome to talk about different views in the comments section!