Lead
Introduction
In essence, the Japanese auto industry has a huge impact on the global auto industry.
Author 丨 Yang Jing
Responsible editor 丨 Luo Chao
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
At 22:36 on March 16, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred off the east coast of Honshu, Japan, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers. The epicenter was located off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture, and after the earthquake, the Tohoku Shinkansen derailed, and there was a large-scale power outage for more than 2 million households in the area under the jurisdiction of TEPCO. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the risk of a tsunami of up to 1 meter is expected.
Local officials reminded coastal residents of Fukushima and Miyagi prefectures to stay off the coast and be vigilant that another earthquake with a magnitude of 6 could occur in the coming week. In international incidents, everyone is concerned about whether it will trigger the leakage of the Fukushima nuclear power plant. From the perspective of the automobile industry, every earthquake in Japan will affect the entire industrial chain.
As an industry with obvious export advantages, the Japanese automobile industry, whether it is an automobile manufacturer or a parts group or a semiconductor company, is bound to affect the production of local factories under the influence of the earthquake, which will trigger a series of chain reactions and cause certain troubles to the global automobile industry.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the global automotive industry has been in a state of instability. The news of the suspension of work and production caused by the epidemic is endless, and the shortage of chips and other components caused by the suspension of production has added a haze to the automotive industry. Occasional factors such as rising raw material prices, outbreaks of international disputes, and natural disasters have also affected the fluctuations in the prices of lithium batteries and crude oil.
How big was the impact of the earthquake in Japan on the automotive industry?
According to Japanese seismological experts, the earthquake is related to the "311" earthquake 11 years ago. On March 11, 2011, an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale struck off the Pacific Ocean in northeastern Japan, the strongest earthquake ever in Asia, affecting the production of Japanese car companies to a certain extent.
Toyota Motor's 12 plants were shut down for three days, affecting production of about 40,000 units. Nissan Motor stopped working at five major plants in Fukushima, Tochigi, Yokohama, Chaihama, and Zama. Honda Motor's research institute and parts plant in Tochigi Prefecture were closed due to damage, and four major vehicle plants, including Saitama Prefecture and Shizuoka Prefecture, were shut down due to difficulties in the supply of parts.
During the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan, some plants of Toyota, Honda, and Nissan were temporarily shut down. Among them, Toyota's Japanese production line has experienced a large-scale shutdown of nearly a week due to supply chain ruptures. Renesas Electronics and Aisin Seiki were some of the suppliers affected by the earthquake. One Renesas Electronics plant was forced to suspend operations, while Aisin Seiki Had two plants shut down.
On September 6, 2018, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck Hokkaido in northern Japan. Toyota Motor motor said that due to disruptions in the supply chain, it has stopped production at the plant since September 8, affecting 16 of Toyota's 18 final assembly plants. Its plant in Tomakomai City, Hokkaido, was the hardest hit, producing AT, CVT and gearboxes. Other plants were forced to close due to parts supply issues, including plants in Kyushu and Tahara and body factories that produce Lexus cars and Toyota Land Cruisers.
Meanwhile, Nissan Motor Company spokesman Koji Okuda said the company does not expect production disruptions due to the lack of production facilities in Hokkaido. However, Nissan had a proving ground there, which was temporarily halted due to a power outage.
On February 14, 2021, another 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in the waters off Fukushima, Japan, which is believed to be the aftershock of the 2011 Fukushima earthquake and tsunami. The earthquake triggered a large-scale power outage, which caused a disruption in the supply of auto parts in Japan, which had an impact on the Japanese semiconductor and automotive industries.
After the earthquake off the coast of Fukushima, Japanese semiconductor giant Renesas Electronics announced on the 15th that the production of its Naka plant was once affected by power outages, and production was suspended for safety reasons, and it is expected to restore the production capacity before the earthquake within a week.
In addition, Toyota Motor motor announced on the 16th that due to the strong earthquake in the Fukushima and Miyagi areas on the 13th, the company's 14 production lines at nine plants in Japan will temporarily stop production from the 17th to the 20th, with a maximum shutdown time of 4 days. It is reported that as many as 20 models will be affected, as well as Lexus models will also be completely reduced.
According to the announcement, the temporary shutdown of the production line involves Toyota RAV4, C-HR and Harrier models, as well as Lexus LS, IS sedan, RC, LC, LX, NX, UX and RX models. Although Toyota did not release specific data on the damaged production, some industry insiders estimate that the earthquake will cause the production process of 56,000 vehicles to be delayed or even completely cancelled.
Sources have reported that the earthquake in northeastern Japan has caused a disruption in the supply of parts, and Nissan will reduce the operating hours of two production lines at the Fukuoka plant from the evening of February 16 and will suspend production on February 20. It is reported that Nissan's Fukuoka plant has an annual production capacity of 530,000 units, mainly for the Japanese market to produce Serena minivans and the most popular multi-purpose model In the United States, the Rogue.
How big is the global impact of the Japanese auto industry?
Japan is the world's third-largest auto market, after China and the United States. In 2021, Japanese car sales were 4,598,600 units, down 11.5% year-on-year, the largest decline in Japan in the past decade. In terms of global markets, Japanese car sales will account for 5.9% of the global total in 2021, with more than 600 cars per 1,000 people.
However, since last year, in the face of supply chain disruption and the spread of the epidemic, Japanese car companies such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda, etc. have repeatedly stopped production, struggling in such an environment, resulting in a decline in car shipments, which also made Japan's trade deficit hit a record high in 8 years.
The Nikkei Chinese reported in January that there were signs of change in Japan's export structure. According to the trade statistics flash report released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, in the second half of 2021, Japan's semiconductor-related exports will increase to about 4.5 trillion yen, alongside passenger cars that are Japan's core export products.
In fact, Renesas has been affected by several earthquakes mentioned above. However, before 2018, automotive products were only in the process of mechanical presentation. Until the advent of the intelligent era, the automotive industry began to pay attention to the importance of semiconductor chips.
"Semiconductor manufacturing is very demanding on the production environment, and force majeure accidents, power outages, machine displacement, and leakage of chemicals in equipment pipelines can make it difficult to resume production for a while." Based on this, some analysts believe that the 2021 Earthquake in Japan may adversely affect chip production, and the suspension of Renesas Electronics has made the "chip panic" in the global automotive industry more and more intense.
According to reports, Renesas Electronics currently ranks third in the global market share of automotive-grade chips, controlling nearly one-third of the world's automotive microcontroller chip market share. The Naka plant accounts for 2 percent of the company's semiconductor production facilities, where two-thirds of its chip products are automotive chips.
"Every time there is a shortage in the semiconductor industry, global supply will be further tightened," Japanese industry analysts predict, due to the "Renesas shock", world car production will be reduced by 1.6 million units in April-June 2021. Among them, the number of Japanese manufacturers affected is estimated at 1.2 million units, and overseas manufacturers are estimated to be 400,000 vehicles.
In 2021, due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction in the global automotive market is about 10.2 million units. Recently, the latest statistics released by the professional organization AFS show that as of February 27, due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction in the global auto market this year is about 643,100 units. According to AFS's latest forecast, global automakers may cut production by more than 1 million vehicles this year.
At present, with the increasing global situation, rising commodity prices, and the occurrence of similar "demon nickel" events, the soaring prices of raw materials needed for automobile manufacturing will make the automotive industry more "uncertain" in 2022.