The improvement of quality and efficiency makes the anhydrous lithium hydroxide technology path more likely to become the future industrial development trend.
Each of us is like a huge iceberg floating on the surface of the water, which can be seen by the outside world, only a small part of the exposed surface, about one-eighth of which is exposed to the water, and the other seven-eighths is hidden under the water.
The larger mountain that is surging under the surface of the water is the "inner" that has been suppressed for a long time and ignored by us. Uncover the secrets of the iceberg, we will see the longings, expectations, opinions and feelings in life, and see the true self.
―Vichenya Satya.
Since the birth of the iceberg theory, Freud, Hemingway, Satya and other giants have interpreted it in their respective fields, and have been widely used in psychology, management, and medicine.
I think all readers have their own views on this theory.
For the author, the iceberg theory reveals a phenomenon of "not knowing what you don't know". There is a kind of unconsciousness, which is caused by insufficient cognition, and the wrong judgment of things is staged all the time.
2021 is a very explosive year in the history of the development of new energy vehicles. According to the data of the Association, the retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to December were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, far exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year.
Throughout the year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles from January to December reached 14.8%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
Lithium batteries, as the core components of new energy vehicles, also ushered in a high growth moment. Last year, the cumulative installed capacity of continental power batteries was 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year.
Among them, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 74.3GWh, accounting for 48.1% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 91.3% year-on-year; the cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 79.8GWh, accounting for 51.7% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 227.4% year-on-year.
Behind the data, it reflects the changes and changes in the lithium battery industry.
What remains unchanged is that the track boom is still high; what has changed is the market share of power batteries, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries for the first time in recent years.
Talking about ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, the two are more like brothers in the lithium battery family, who love and kill each other in the history of the development of new energy vehicles.
Price "icebergs" emerge
In the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles, the safety performance of batteries was placed in the first place, and lithium iron phosphate and lithium cobalt oxide were favored.
Then, with the emergence of high-end passenger models, consumers put forward higher requirements for mileage on the basis of safety performance.
Since the specific capacity of lithium iron phosphate is generally between 130-150 mAh/g, the specific capacity of ternary batteries can reach more than 200 mAh/g, so ternary batteries are gradually on the stage.
The key turning point occurred in 2017, when the Subsidy New Deal used energy density as an indicator for the first time.
For models with energy densities below 90wh/kg, the subsidy factor is 1 times for models with energy density below 90wh/kg, and the subsidy multiple for models with energy density below 90wh/kg is 1.1 times.
After that, the policy has continuously improved the subsidized battery standards, and by 2020, there will be no subsidies for models below 125wh/kg, and the subsidy multiple for models above 160wh/kg will be 1 times.
It is the increasing requirements of financial subsidies for energy density that have promoted the proportion of ternary battery installed capacity from 23.5% in 2016 to 64.1% in 2020.
However, the situation in 2021 has changed again, and the shipment of lithium iron phosphate has exceeded the ternary. There are two reasons behind this, one is that the development of CTP, blade batteries and other technologies has greatly increased the energy density of lithium iron phosphate.
The second is the high level of the new energy track, which has led to a sharp increase in the price of upstream resources. In addition to the sharp rise in lithium prices, ternary batteries use scarce and expensive cobalt and nickel, making the cost significantly higher than lithium iron phosphate.
The dual factors are in line with the first principle of cost reduction and efficiency increase, coupled with the decline of lithium battery subsidies, intensified competition between car companies and other exogenous variables, resulting in a big outbreak of lithium iron this year, and the shipment volume exceeds that of ternary batteries.
This change also affects lithium iron phosphate and the core raw materials of ternary batteries, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.
The most obvious change is the price, which has soared under the premise of the demand boom.
According to Shanghai non-ferrous data, on March 7, the price of lithium carbonate rose to 497,000 / ton, the price of lithium hydroxide rose to 459,500 / ton, and the price of the two in early 2021 was less than 100,000 / ton, only one year, the increase was nearly 4 times.
Further observation of the price movements of the two can also lead to the conclusion that the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have been in an alternating leading position in the past. In 2021, in the context of the sharp rise in demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries, lithium carbonate has shown a significant premium relative to lithium hydroxide.
The logic of high demand and rising prices seems to be taken for granted, but when we go deep into the manufacturing process, we can explore more factors hidden under the price iceberg.
Under the iceberg
Lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate are similar, both are compounds of lithium, are the source of lithium for the production of cathode materials, and are in the middle of the smelting and processing processing of the lithium industry chain.
At present, lithium carbonate is mainly used in the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in the low and medium nickel cathode materials (NCM 111, 523 and part 622), while lithium hydroxide is mainly used in the production of high nickel cathode materials in ternary materials (part NCM622, all NCM811, 90505 and NCA).
Many friends may further question, why lithium carbonate can not be used in high nickel cathode materials?
When we delved into the process, we found that when mixing and sintering lithium salts with ternary precursor particles, lithium salts needed to be in a molten liquid state. The excellent fluidity of the liquid can make the lithium salt and the ternary precursor particles evenly mixed, so that the sintered cathode material has excellent electrochemical properties.
However, the sintering temperature of high nickel ternary materials should not be too high. The melting point of anhydrous lithium hydroxide is about 462°C, the melting point of lithium hydroxide in monohydrate is about 470°C, and the melting point of lithium carbonate is as high as 723°C.
Obviously, the melting point of lithium hydroxide and the sintering temperature of the ternary material are more matched, while lithium carbonate is too high. Production conditions require high nickel ternary materials to use only lithium hydroxide as a lithium source.
In addition to downstream applications, the production process of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is also inextricably linked.
The production of lithium carbonate is currently widely used industrial method is sulfuric acid method, through sulfuric acid and spodumene reaction to obtain lithium sulfate, in the lithium sulfate solution to add sodium carbonate to obtain lithium carbonate, add calcium hydroxide or sodium hydroxide to produce lithium hydroxide.
Lithium hydroxide can also be produced by using a one-step caustic method.
Ganfeng Lithium (002460. SZ) and Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) both use lithium sulfate caustic method. This method has the advantages of low cost, mature process, short production process, low energy consumption, small material circulation, etc., and is the mainstream process for the global production of lithium hydroxide.
The raw materials for the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are also mainly lithium ore, and the excipients are sulfuric acid, soda ash and soda ash.
(Lithium extraction in salt lake: the preparation of lithium salt mainly uses the sun pool method, Mr. produces crude lithium carbonate, and then caustically prepares lithium hydroxide, this process is relatively mature, but requires a high resource endowment, high concentration of lithium ions and low concentration of magnesium in the salt lake. ）
According to industry estimates, the production of one ton of lithium carbonate requires 8 tons of 6% grade spodumene, 1.7 tons of soda ash, 2.4 tons of sulfuric acid, 7.2 tons of thermal coal, 3000KWh of electricity, depreciation and labor are 6000 yuan / ton and 350 yuan / ton, respectively.
The production of one ton of lithium hydroxide requires 7 tons of 6% grade spodumene, 0.1 tons of soda ash, 2.05 tons of sulfuric acid, 1.33 tons of caustic soda, 0.87 tons of calcium carbonate, 2.6 tons of thermal coal, 3067.4KWh of electricity, depreciation and labor of 6000 yuan / ton and 350 yuan / ton, respectively.
From the cost composition, it can be seen that there is a difference in the amount of spodumene used between the two, and the cost of spodumene in ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeds 80%.
The cost of lithium ore is subject to the supply side. On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the overseas operating rate has been greatly affected, and comprehensive factors such as freight and labor have made lithium ore in short supply, and cost factors have driven prices up.
On the other hand, the heat of new energy vehicles has made the demand for lithium ore high, and the crazy chase of various capitals has further pushed up the price of lithium ore.
Therefore, the dual factors of insufficient supply and expansion of demand have led to an increase in the price of lithium ore. At the same time, the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have risen synchronously, and the different amounts of lithium ore have led to a deviation in the prices of the two.
At this stage, lithium carbonate, which occupies a cost advantage, is more accepted by the market. However, the alternating changes of the short-term market pattern do not mean the formation of a long-term pattern.
All along, lithium batteries have been most criticized for their short endurance, battery space and weight, so improving energy density is the primary position in the development of the industry.
According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" released by the state in October 2020, the annual energy density target for pure electric vehicle power batteries in mainland China in 2025 is 400Wh/kg, and the target for 2030 is 500Wh/kg.
At present, the energy density of domestic ternary lithium batteries can reach more than 200Wh/kg, while the upper limit of energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is about 180Wh/kg.
Even if lithium iron has technological breakthroughs in the future, its own material has become a ceiling that limits its energy density. In the short term, the relationship between the two complements each other. In the future, ternary cathode materials are undoubtedly more suitable for the needs of high energy density of batteries.
Beneath the icebergs, there are glaciers
Through the market research of lithium hydroxide, it is found that the competitive pattern of the market shows the phenomenon of concentrated share of head enterprises. In 2020, the market share of Ganfeng Lithium, Yabao and Yahua Lithium will reach 70%.
From the perspective of domestic production capacity layout, the existing lithium hydroxide production capacity is 152,800 tons, and by 2025 it will be about 367,800 tons, compared with the production capacity layout of other industrial chain links often 3 times and 5 times, 4 years 1.4 times lithium hydroxide is a mild capacity expansion.
According to the capacity expansion plan of each manufacturer, it can be seen that 2022 and 2023 are the concentrated release years of production capacity. Based on the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, it is estimated that the increase in lithium hydroxide demand in 2024 and 2025 is significantly greater than the increase in supply, and there will be a significant gap in lithium hydroxide smelting capacity in 2025.
Determining the lithium hydroxide industry pattern or lies in the mastery of the size of lithium resources, from the perspective of many competitors, Ganfeng lithium industry needless to say, in the domestic lithium resource reserves second to none.
In addition, Yahua Group, which has the pre-emptive right to purchase Galaxy Lithium and the mining right of Lijiagou, the largest spodumene mine in Asia, entered the supply chain system of the Ningde era and bound Australian spodumene through Tianyi Lithium. Veteran rivals Tianqi Lithium and the new force Weihua shares have a certain degree of competitiveness.
However, if the future production capacity is released as scheduled, it will inevitably lead to intensified competition, and the end of homogeneous product competition will inevitably be a price war. Differentiated products are obviously one of the solutions, so is there a lithium hydroxide technology path?
The answer is yes, micronized, anhydrous lithium hydroxide technology provides differentiated products, the impact on the future industry pattern is extremely profound.
Ice-breaking trip
From the perspective of the industrial chain of ternary lithium batteries, the upstream is mineral resources such as cobalt and nickel, the middle reaches are ternary precursors and ternary cathode materials, and the downstream is ternary lithium batteries.
Ternary precursor is the previous process of ternary cathode material, the production process of ternary cathode material is to mix the ternary precursor with lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide and sintered.
In the production process of cathode materials, lithium hydroxide needs to be mixed evenly with ternary precursors to obtain better performance. The ternary precursor is usually a mixture of nickel, cobalt, manganese or nickel, cobalt and aluminum, which is micropowdered and has a small particle size.
For example, grimme's GEM-1-6 ternary precursor typically has a particle size of 5-6 microns. The ordinary coarse particle lithium hydroxide particle size is usually 350-400 microns, which is nearly a hundred times the particle size of the precursor.
Therefore, before the lithium hydroxide and ternary precursors are mixed and sintered, lithium hydroxide needs to be ground to a level close to that of the precursors.
Source: Long-term Lithium Prospectus
However, the grinding process seems simple, but in fact it is complex, and there are deep barriers.
Lithium hydroxide is highly alkaline, highly susceptible to moisture absorption, and extremely sensitive to magnetic foreign bodies. The process of crushing places extremely high demands on the control of the particle size distribution, magnetic foreign bodies, loss rate and carbonate content of the product. What the industry needs is mass production of cumulative know-how.
However, there are losses in the grinding process of lithium hydroxide, and the high cost makes the cathode material plant prohibitive.
The result is two markets, self-grinding and non-self-grinding. Some cathode material factories (mainly Japanese manufacturers) choose to purchase crude lithium hydroxide and grind them themselves.
Cathode material factories that do not grind themselves either choose lithium salt factories to supply micronized powder directly, or entrust them personally or entrust third-party processing by lithium salt factories.
At present, only Ganfeng Lithium can directly supply micronized products in the lithium salt plant, and other lithium salt plants rely on third-party processing plants such as Quzhou Yongzheng and Chengdu Kaifei to complete the crushing process.
In the technical path of lithium hydroxide, anhydrous lithium hydroxide is undoubtedly closer to the ultimate technology.
The lithium hydroxide we mention every day, or the quotation of lithium hydroxide on industry websites, and the products delivered by lithium salt factories are actually lithium hydroxide monohydrate.
Lithium hydroxide monohydrate, formula LiOH· H2O, in lithium hydroxide in monohydrate, the content of lithium hydroxide is about 56.5%, and the rest are crystalline water.
Anhydrous lithium hydroxide refers to lithium hydroxide that removes crystalline water after high temperature treatment.
Cathode material plants often mix lithium hydroxide directly with precursors for sintering, and remove crystalline water during the sintering process.
However, the dehydration process takes up to 7-8 hours, significantly increasing energy consumption. Dehydration may lead to part of the lithium hydroxide and carbon dioxide in the air to react (referred to as carbonization), carbonized products can not be applied, undoubtedly increase the cost.
Moreover, the dehydration link can easily become the process bottleneck of the cathode material plant and thus affect the output efficiency.
Therefore, some cathode material factories believe that the dehydration link is placed in the lithium salt plant, which is more convenient for the production of cathode materials.
On the one hand, the dehydration link is placed in the lithium salt plant, even the carbonized part can be recycled; on the other hand, in the single water lithium hydroxide, the content of lithium hydroxide is only about half.
If the crystalline water is removed, the content of impurities such as magnetic foreign bodies can still maintain the original level, which is equivalent to doubling the ratio of lithium /impurity.
The importance of the improvement of efficiency and purity to the cathode material factory is self-evident.
Therefore, the cathode material factory proposed to the lithium salt plant the demand for micronized lithium hydroxide to remove crystalline water, and the subdivision of anhydrous lithium hydroxide came into being.
It is understood that at present, there is no demand for anhydrous lithium hydroxide in the domestic cathode plant, and all anhydrous lithium hydroxide products are exported.
Compared with micronized lithium hydroxide, the technical path of anhydrous lithium hydroxide is more difficult. Anhydrous products have higher requirements in the production, packaging and protection processes.
Lithium hydroxide itself is a dangerous chemical with a pungent taste, and lithium hydroxide after dehydration is more likely to carbonize and absorb moisture more strongly, and the molecular gravitational pull rises after dehydration leads to easy caking.
In downstream applications, even if a small amount of agglomeration is found, the cathode material factory will return the entire batch.
The requirements for the inventory management of anhydrous lithium hydroxide are higher, the shelf life of crude lithium hydroxide is about 6 months, the shelf life of micronized products is less than 3 months, and the shelf life of anhydrous lithium hydroxide is only short and not long.
From the process point of view, anhydrous products are first dehydrated, and then grinding, anhydrous powder products require manufacturers to master the two processes of anhydrous + powder.
At present, only two domestic enterprises, Ganfeng and Yongzheng, produce anhydrous lithium hydroxide. Among the first echelon of lithium hydroxide manufacturers, Yabao & Livent is still only satisfied with supplying crude particulate products.
Among second-tier manufacturers, even the quality of coarse particle products has not been tested by customers on a large scale. In the short term, it is difficult to have a third lithium salt plant in the market that can achieve large-scale supply of anhydrous products.
The advent of products with excellent performance and scarcity means higher costs and better profits. Due to the high technical barriers, the profitability of anhydrous products is significantly stronger than that of micro powder and coarse particle products.
According to industry surveys, compared with single-water powder products, the cost of anhydrous products is additionally 5,000-7,000 yuan / ton, but the premium brought is far more than this.
According to the average monthly export price of customs: taking the average price of domestic micronized lithium hydroxide as the benchmark for the month, the premium of anhydrous products in April-December 2019 was 13,000-56,000/ton. In the long run, the premium of anhydrous powder products to single water powder is 10,000-20,000 yuan / ton (single water caliber) is more reasonable.
On the one hand, the premium of anhydrous products is significantly higher than the additional cost of the dehydration process, and the premium capacity is very strong; but on the other hand, the current volume of anhydrous products is still very small, and a mature and effective pricing mechanism has not yet been formed, and the premium fluctuation range is wide.
Obviously, there are indeed high barriers to anhydrous lithium hydroxide products, the technology is concentrated in the hands of two manufacturers, there is a strong bargaining power, Ganfeng, Yongzheng two companies are expected to obtain excess returns.
epilogue
Beneath the icebergs, there are glaciers.
Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also have a water-milk connection under the seemingly competitive relationship.
The technical path of micro-powdered and anhydrous lithium hydroxide is long, and the popularization of anhydrous lithium hydroxide is difficult to achieve overnight.
Factors such as production line support, process maturity, cost problems, industry standards, and competition for the right to speak are destined to be a gradual process.
The improvement of quality and efficiency makes this technical path a development trend of the future industry.
This process, you and I will be witnesses.