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Battery manufacturers are fully powered.
At the 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held on March 26, power batteries became the high-frequency words on the spot.
Behind this is the huge changes that have taken place in the industry over the past year. As the three most critical metals in the raw materials of power batteries - lithium, nickel and cobalt - the price has risen all the way. Compared with the same period last year, the market quotation of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose nearly 10 times; the market price of nickel rose from less than 150,000 yuan / ton at the end of last year to a maximum of more than 300,000 yuan / ton; cobalt also nearly doubled in the same period.
Power battery manufacturers are difficult to resist cost pressure, and transmission to the manufacturing end and sales end also set off a series of chain reactions. "The rise in battery prices is very strong, there are some manufacturers we are already communicating now, the proportion of price increases beyond our imagination." He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xiaopeng Automobile, poured "bitter water" in his speech.
Ideal Car founder Li Xiang also sighed at the scene that lithium carbonate will be the same as oil, no longer calculated by cost. "The cost of lithium carbonate may be 30,000-50,000 yuan, it should not be so expensive, this is a huge profit, but in terms of oil, the price of oil is not according to the cost."
However, in the judgment of Liu Jincheng, chairman of Ewell Lithium Energy, the price of power batteries on the supply side is close to the high point. "Some of the important customers (of ours) have clearly put forward the price red line, and beyond a certain price may not be able to do it."
From the perspective of the overall industry trend, power battery manufacturers affected by cost and supply and demand have adjusted prices many times. On March 21, CATL said that because the price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply, the company will dynamically adjust the price of some battery products.
According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in the mainland will be 154.5GWh. Among them, CATL ranked first with 80.51GWh loading capacity, accounting for 52.1%. The loading capacity of Ewell Lithium Energy is 2.92GWh, ranking eighth.
Zheng he Xiaopeng said in a later interview with the media that for domestic car companies, the tight supply of power batteries will still be a big challenge. This statement has also been confirmed by Liu Jincheng, although the price inflection point is gradually emerging, but with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, it still takes time for the tight supply of power batteries to be alleviated.
"The production line schedule of each factory of Ewell Lithium Energy is full." Liu Jincheng revealed in an interview with the media, including Future Auto Daily, that in order to alleviate the problem of production capacity, Ewell Lithium Energy has planned a 200GWh production capacity, which will be built at the end of this year and put into operation in the first half of 2023.
At the same time, on the technical route, when Tesla used cylindrical power batteries on a large scale in another way, with its own strength, it also pushed the research and development of large cylindrical batteries back to the mainstream vision of the industry. At present, battery manufacturers, including Ewell Lithium Energy, have set their sights on cylindrical batteries with undecided patterns.
Liu Jincheng believes that based on the understanding of battery safety and economy, large cylindrical batteries will become the main power supply direction for high- and middle-end products in the future. And EWELL Lithium energy has already started the construction of the large cylindrical project last year. "The large cylindrical battery can guarantee that there will be no thermal diffusion, and it can be absolutely safe."
In the context of rapid expansion, the power battery industry has also begun a new round of robbery war. In Liu Jincheng's view, all kinds of talents accumulated in the power battery industry in the past, "including technology, engineering, quality management and other aspects of talent are insufficient." ”
Under the huge talent gap and hot money surge, the power battery industry is also staged an internal volume war. "I believe that the phenomenon of high-paying recruits or high-paying recruits will continue to exist for a long time, which is a significant feature of development." Liu Jincheng said.
The following is the transcript of Liu Jincheng's dialogue with future automotive daily and other media group interviews (excerpted by future automotive daily):
Some car companies have clearly put forward the price red line, and it is impossible to do more than too much
Q: The price of raw materials upstream of the battery has soared, how long will it last in the long run?
A: The price increase of materials superimposes the rapid development of power batteries and the rapid development of energy storage. The result of the increase is that there are not enough material resources, so it leads to price increases.
However, from the current supply and demand relationship, the behavior of end consumers may limit the price increase of materials. When lithium carbonate rose to about 500,000, the procurement of energy storage users has been somewhat divergent and shaken, and some A0-class models in the electric vehicle industry have not taken orders, because this will lead to losses. So I think that at this stage, the price of the material should be around the high point.
From the perspective of healthy development of the industry, it may be relatively healthy for the industry to decline at this stage. This is my opinion, and further up is not necessarily going to be done.
Q: What are the specific measures that Ewell Lithium can take to cope with the price increase?
A: Since last year, we have built the entire supply chain from lithium, nickel, cobalt to electrolyte to diaphragm. Since the beginning of this year, these joint ventures and cooperative factories have begun to build (construction), which will certainly be of great help to the subsequent market competitiveness. And we have established a long-term and effective relationship with our supply chain partners, which will make us more at ease in the face of future industry price fluctuations.
Q: The price of raw materials has risen, has EWELL Lithium Energy adjusted the price?
A: In the first quarter of this year, the price of materials rose a little faster, as a major enterprise in the industry, we hoped to calm down the rapid price fluctuations, so there was no arrangement for rapid price increases. But the market has developed to this day, we analyze that the price will be stable at this price level for a period of time, so we actively discuss with the main customers, and we have reached a consensus on the price, which should be completed within March.
But in the process of adjusting prices, we have very significantly felt the changes in the market, including energy storage batteries. There are some important customers who clearly put forward price red lines, and they can't do it beyond a certain price. Based on this judgment, we also believe that the price on the supply side should be near the high.
Q: Now that the battery supply is tight, what is the company's scheduling situation?
A: In fact, the supply of many batteries is still tight, and the scheduling of production lines in our various factories should be full.
Q: What are the future capacity plans?
A: Our capacity planning is mainly based on market demand, Ewell Lithium Energy has announced a production capacity of nearly 200GWh, and is under construction. It will be completed by the end of this year, and will be completed and put into operation in the first half of 2023.
Q: In 2021, Ewell Lithium Energy ranks eighth in the list of domestic power battery installed capacity, what is the market goal this year?
A: Last year ranked eighth, in fact we should have delivered more batteries because there was a batch of batteries that were handed over to customers in Europe and South Korea. The light soft pack battery produced and sold 10GWh batteries last year, and we are still in the top ten.
Looking at this year, we have now become an important supplier to some important customers. Especially in the second half of the year, I believe that our market share will be further improved, and I hope that this is a continuous improvement process.
Large cylindrical batteries will be the mainstream route
Q: In the current entire power battery field, the competitive elements include technology, market resources, supply chain resources, what kind of market pattern will be formed in the future competitive relationship?
A: Now the power battery needs technology, high-level production and manufacturing and strong supply chain support, especially this year's supply chain, in the context of the superposition of power batteries and energy storage batteries, the supply chain is somewhat difficult. Therefore, it has led to a rapid rise in prices and brought new challenges to the operating enterprises of power batteries.
But everyone will have a way to deal with it, and they will deal with it. In the long run, I think that in front of power battery companies, technology is still the most important element and ability. Later, as the scale of battery production and delivery expands, supply chain capabilities will become more and more important.
Q: Now that some battery companies have begun to lay out energy storage, power exchange and other fields, will these services become the standard for the next development of battery companies?
A: In essence, power and energy storage batteries are both chemical energy storage devices, and there is no distinction in principle. For Ewell Lithium Energy, we are actually using the past consumer battery as a platform to carry out the second entrepreneurship of power batteries.
After 7 years of development, our power batteries and energy storage batteries have a good asset structure, and the entire consumer battery sector has grown relatively well. We have also become a comprehensive solution company for consumer batteries + power batteries.
Q: EWELL Lithium Energy launched the construction of the large cylindrical project last year, how do you think about the future development trend of power battery technology?
A: From the concept of absolute safety, the ternary battery of the large cylinder is undoubtedly the best choice, and the design equipped with the battery cell can ensure that the battery will not have thermal diffusion and the safety of the system.
From the mainstream point of view, the large cylindrical battery will be the mainstream route, and the square lithium iron phosphate battery will become the mainstream technical route in the popular model. The first is the large cylindrical battery, which is designed with a battery cell to ensure that the battery will not have thermal diffusion and has the safety of the system.
The square lithium iron phosphate battery, its internal electrochemical structure is more reasonable, and the safety of the battery is also well guaranteed. Considering the comprehensive factor, the future direction of the battery, (we prefer) cylindrical batteries and laminated lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Q: Recently, talents in the battery field are relatively scarce, many companies are digging people with high salaries, how about the talent reserve of Yiwei Lithium Energy?
A: In the past, all kinds of talents accumulated in this industry, including technology, engineering, and quality management, are insufficient, and in the process of rapid development of the industry, talent shortage is a common phenomenon.
Some companies take a take-it-or-treat approach, they mainly rely on digging people to support technology development, and there are still many such companies in the industry. I believe that this method of high-paying recruitment or high-paying recruitment will still exist for a long time, which is a significant feature of development.
The route that EWELL Lithium can take is mainly based on cultivation, and now the number of our research institute has exceeded 2,000 people, and it should reach the scale of 3,000 people at the end of this year.
Q: How do you see the current situation of domestic power battery recycling?
From the current point of view, the recycling of batteries is an important issue because of its large scale. Recovering 20GWh of batteries, ideally, can extract 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate, which is a great project from the perspective of mining. So battery recycling will become more and more important, and the scale will become larger and larger.
In terms of cost, the A0-class model is very much in line with the needs of the public, and the price is not expensive. In the future, if the residual value of battery recycling can be better played, it means that the cost of use by consumers will be lower, which is also a great role for the industry.
The author | Su Peng
Edit the | Wang Yan
