According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of this year, there were a total of 29 new domestic power battery investment projects, with a total investment of 339.11 billion yuan, and the planned power battery production capacity was nearly 877GWh, which was higher than the same period last year in terms of quantity, investment amount or planned production capacity.
According to SNE Research's forecast, by 2023, the global demand for electric vehicles for power batteries will reach 406GWh, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335GWh, a gap of about 18%; by 2025, this gap will expand to about 40%.
Comparing the two sets of data, it can be found that although the battery market is growing rapidly, the tight supply of battery capacity continues.
Faced with the severe industry situation, how can battery manufacturers break the situation? In the new round of technology competition for power batteries, which technical route will become the mainstream? In a recent interview, Liu Jincheng, chairman of Huizhou Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yiwei Lithium Energy"), responded.
Supply chain stability is a top priority
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials in the upstream of the battery industry chain represented by lithium carbonate has continued to rise, resulting in the increasing cost of power batteries, which has brought new challenges to the operation of power battery companies, and is also one of the important factors causing the battery gap.
In this regard, Liu Jincheng felt that "power batteries now need technology, high-level manufacturing and strong supply chain support, especially in the case of some difficulties in the supply chain this year." ”
He believes that although technical elements are still the most important factors and capabilities of power battery companies, with the expansion of battery production and delivery, supply chain capabilities have become more and more important. In his view, the battery supply, supply stability and price stability are not high, which has become an important bottleneck restricting the development of the power battery industry.
The reporter noted that in the face of the current industry situation, the response measures of the vast majority of battery companies, including LG, Panasonic, Ewell Lithium Energy, etc., are to deploy supply chains and establish long-term and effective cooperative relations with supply partners so that companies can be more relaxed in the process of dealing with price fluctuations.
For example, Ewell Lithium Energy has been building the entire supply chain of lithium, nickel, cobalt, electrolyte and diaphragm since last year. Since the beginning of this year, its factories participating in joint ventures or cooperation have begun to be built one after another.
"The supply chain is the key to maintaining the development of the industry, and our cooperation with upstream supply chain enterprises is to ensure the supply of important major customers and ensure the stable and sustainable development of the company." Such cooperative enterprises only account for less than 50% of the supply, and only when the industry supply chain continues to expand and grow can sustainable and healthy development be achieved. Liu Jincheng further expressed his position.
In addition, most battery companies, including Panasonic, LG, Fu Neng, etc., have adjusted product prices by different ranges.
It is reported that Fu Neng's products are currently generally priced by about 25%, and are negotiating a second round of price increases with customers. Sunwoda also recently disclosed that it will adjust the selling price accordingly according to different customers, projects and product structures, and the increase will refer to the level of leading companies in the industry. It is reported that Ewell Lithium Energy has conducted price discussions and reached relevant agreements with major customers in the first quarter, and completed the price adjustment in March.
The safety trick of the "big cylinder"
At this stage, the power battery field presents a situation where a variety of technical routes coexist, but the debate in the industry on the future mainstream battery technology route has never stopped. Who will be the winner?
Liu Jincheng believes that from the perspective of the chemical system, large cylindrical batteries, square batteries and soft pack batteries have their own advantages; but from the perspective of safety, large cylindrical batteries are the best choice.
Liu Jincheng introduced that safety and economy are the current focus of power batteries. Square ternary batteries are prone to spontaneous combustion due to their high nickel materials; the price of soft-pack ternary batteries with excellent performance is two or three thousand yuan more expensive than other battery systems.
In contrast, the large cylindrical battery has multiple advantages: first, the design and manufacture of the large cylindrical battery, and even the recycling, can be standardized; second, the whole life cycle structure of the large cylindrical battery is stable, in the battery life cycle, the 46 series (4680 and 4695 batteries) large cylindrical batteries will not produce internal stress due to expansion, resulting in structural changes inside the battery; third, the large cylindrical battery can achieve the ultimate manufacturing, shortening the supply path by 30% and making the production efficiency higher.
It is worth mentioning that in the large cylindrical battery puncture experiment of Ewell Lithium Energy, when 6 46 series cells were punctured, the cells quickly extinguished after fire, and their safety was strongly verified. "After the internal pressure exceeds a certain value, the battery cell will open the valve to drain the main heat enthalpy inside the battery in a directional manner to avoid heat diffusion between the batteries." There are vent holes in the battery to quickly release the battery pressure. Liu Jincheng explained.
Because of this, Liu Jincheng believes that large cylindrical batteries will become the mainstream technology in the future. In addition to EWELL Lithium Energy, in the industry, Panasonic, LG, Samsung SDI, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Hive Energy, Lishen, BAK, Penghui Energy and other head battery companies are also optimistic about the prospects of large cylindrical batteries.
Zhao Bingdi, president of Panasonic (China) Co., Ltd., once said: "Circular batteries have corresponding advantages in terms of manufacturing uniformity and safety performance, and the 4680 large cylindrical batteries we launched can actually maximize the effective and continuous use of small-sized equipment in the past, and the return on the entire investment is ideal." It is understood that Panasonic is undergoing a facility renovation and expects to start trial production of 4680 batteries in Japan from April this year. After that, Panasonic plans to conduct further trial production at its plant in Wakayama Prefecture, near its headquarters in Osaka, Japan.
Fan Wenguang, vice president of BAK Power Battery, also pointed out that the large cylindrical battery is the optimal solution for the high-end electric vehicle in the next 5-10 years: "In 2025, China's large cylindrical battery market share will exceed 30%, exceeding the total global demand in 2021." "At present, BAK's cylindrical aluminum shell battery cells are already in the B-sample (near-mass production prototype) stage, which will be mass-produced in 2024, when the energy density will reach 285Wh/kg.
At the same time, some institutions have analyzed, referring to the replacement rhythm of 21700 to 18650 batteries, it is expected that the installed capacity of 4680 large cylindrical batteries in 2023 is expected to exceed 20GWh, and in 2024 it will exceed 100GWh, and the application of terminal OEMs is also expected to gradually penetrate from Tesla to high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as BMW and Daimler.
However, as a representative of the square battery, the upcoming third-generation CTP (moduleless) technology (internally known as "Kirin Battery") of catheter times is also of concern.
"With the same battery pack size in the same chemical system, the 3.0 version of CTP has a 13% higher energy density than the 4680 system." Wu Kai, chief scientist of the Ningde era, said. According to the Disclosure of CATL, when the Kirin battery adopts the iron phosphate system, the system energy density is expected to be 160Wh/kg-290Wh/L; when the ternary system is adopted, the system energy density is expected to be 250Wh/kg-450Wh/L. Judging from these parameters, the Kirin battery is slightly better than the large cylindrical battery.
Based on this, some industry experts believe that for a long time in the future, large cylindrical batteries and square batteries are expected to become mainstream together. "Under the current technical conditions, both batteries have their own applicable scenarios, and the two may coexist for a long time, just as the current ternary lithium batteries coexist with lithium iron phosphate batteries."
Perhaps, only when the power battery that can reduce the consumption of mineral resources and reduce production costs on the basis of improving performance, but also solve the problems of mileage anxiety, safety anxiety, charging anxiety, low residual value anxiety, etc., will achieve large-scale commercial mass production, the final winner will appear. However, no matter which battery route eventually becomes the mainstream, it is the embodiment of technological progress and material innovation, which will promote the high-quality development of the industry.