Over the weekend, let's take a look at the insurance sales data for February.
Overall, in terms of macro, the passenger car insurance data in February was 1.157 million units, down 10.6% year-on-year. I will list several data related to new energy vehicles:
●Sales of passenger cars (including exports) of the China Automobile Association: 419,000 units in January and 321,000 units in February
●Exports of passenger cars from CAAM: 56,000 units in January and 48,000 units in February
●Wholesale (including exports): 417,000 in January and 317,000 in February, totaling 734,000
●Retail sales of the association: 352,000 in January and 272,000 in February, a total of 624,000
●Insurance data: 315,700 in January, 239,000 in February, a total of 554,700
There is a time difference here - the insurance data lags behind the retail (store) data of wholesale and manufacturer statistics, so the difference between the above data is caused.
Figure 1. Data comparison across channels
Part 1
Overview of the macro data of the insurance
When I add up the insurance data in January and February (in order to eliminate the difference caused by the Spring Festival and different months), I can see that the overall data of the two months is less than 4 million. With the rise in oil prices - the demand for traditional fuel vehicles will be further suppressed, we need to judge a very interesting core problem, in the pursuit of electric vehicles and fuel vehicle parity, due to the high oil price under the use of the cost is increasing, so that a considerable number of high mileage commuter users will first replace to electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid, this part of the change is objectively existent.
Figure 2. Comparison of insurance data from January to February 2016-2022
This year's chip supply problems continue to exist objectively, with various home policies that began in March, making the first half of 2022 start closer to 2020.
Figure 3. From 2021 to 2022, the year-on-year insurance data has been sluggish for a long time
That is to say, on the supply side, whether it is a vehicle company or a parts company, there will be continuous difficulties. In 2022, until a response to the epidemic is found, the disturbance is objective.
Figure 4. March or April 2022 could be punched out of a big hole
(Can the traditional gold three silver four still be expected)
According to the manufacturer's data, the overall situation in February is shown in Table 2 below, and I have not expanded them one by one.
Table 1. Basic overview of The February Insurance Coverage Data
Part 2
Analysis by new energy vehicle type
Focusing on the bev and PHEV situation of enterprises, I did figure 5 below.
In the field of pure electric power, Wuling is the first in line, 30408 units (I track the situation of Wuling from time to time, because the data has always been bright, often feel a little bit of bragging about the suspicion of the god car); the second is BYD, 29725 units, the third is Tesla's 24197 units.
In plug-in hybrids, BYD has 36,731 units and the ideal 8,370 units. The good news is that Geely and Changan have stood on 1,000 plug-in hybrids, surpassing the traditional PHEV large-scale SAIC passenger cars.
Figure 5. Comparison of pure electric and plug-in data of major car companies from January to February
Entering 2022, Tesla, which took the lead in continuing to increase prices, still maintained high sales, and the difference in cost digestion ability this year is mainly reflected in the recognition of brands and consumers, and the amount of follow-up new forces may be further differentiated.
Figure 6. Sales of major models by new car-making forces in February
For traditional forces, with the sale of new energy credits in 2022, there will be a differentiation between what they want to do and those who don't want to do (continue to increase transformation and investment or continue to mix). Euler's black cat and white cat stopped production and went to the high-end, which is actually the strategy of traditional car companies to maintain the continuous existence of their own models. Geely Zeekr this way can go, although there are more negative, but the high cost performance can still stand.
Figure 7. Sales of major traditional car companies in January and February
Finally, in 2022, the impact is relatively strong, at present, the DM-i series is really a product with a sharp increase in word-of-mouth and practicality in the era of high oil prices, and with the switch of Han DM to DM-i, the sales of this series of models are further advanced. In the pure electric series, the curve of the E3 series (Dolphin) that takes the integrated route is more than expected.
Figure 8. Data on BYD's insured models for January and February 2022
Summary: The changes in the automotive industry in 2022 have been following the changes in the macro environment. Under the influence of large environmental factors, the changes in the market, car companies and consumers will sometimes tend to accelerate, and this promotion is sometimes a good thing for the overall development of the market.