The international situation is unclear, so that the owners are very "injured", because on March 3, 24:00, the oil price rose again, No. 92 gasoline rose by 0.2 yuan / liter, has broken through the 8 yuan mark, the owners directly called "can not afford to add oil". What is more "excessive" is that it is expected that the next round of price adjustment will rise sharply by 0.6-0.7 yuan / liter, so "breaking eight is not terrible at all, the terrible thing is to prepare to break nine"...
Those prospective owners want to abandon pure fuel vehicles and turn to hybrid, plug-in hybrid and even pure electric vehicles. So the question is, under the premise of high oil prices, is it really cost-effective to choose pure electric vehicles?
From today's point of view, since 0:00 on January 1, 2022, The country has experienced 5 price increases, with an increase of 0.11-0.24 yuan, and a total increase of 0.98 yuan... Let the No. 92 gasoline from the "7 yuan era" into the "8 yuan era", usually the owner of the big foot throttle can only lightly step on the accelerator.
The terrible thing is that according to the international crude oil futures price on March 7, Brent crude oil futures once pulled up 20 US dollars / barrel, the highest rushed to a high of 139.1 US dollars / barrel, WTI crude oil futures reached a maximum of 130.5 US dollars / barrel, both set a record in 14 years, so the rise is inevitable...
If according to this increase, it is expected that the next adjustment day will rise by 0.61-0.72 yuan, far beyond the red line of the upward adjustment, and if it really has to be adjusted in this way, it is equivalent to a rise equal to the sum of the first 4 price increases this year.
But there is no need to be alarmist, because the price of the two sides fell slightly, floating on the writing day (March 8) Brent crude oil futures price of $126 / barrel, WTI crude oil futures price of $121 / barrel, although still showing an upward trend, but it is estimated that the next price adjustment range will not be as exaggerated as the Internet rumors.
In addition, the mainland refined oil products implement "floor prices" and "ceiling prices" - when the international oil price is below $40 and above $130, the domestic refined oil price is no longer adjusted.
Therefore, at most, it will be "another wave", and it will not be outrageously high. From 24:00 on February 17 to 24:00 on March 3, the international crude oil futures price rose from $93 / barrel to $110 / barrel, and the domestic oil price rose by 0.2-0.22 yuan. Even if it rises to the ceiling of $130 / barrel, the highest domestic oil price of No. 92 is only 8.3-8.5 yuan, and No. 95 is "breaking the nine yuan mark".
So if you want to save money, then we have basically three options:
1, hybrid vehicles: no need to charge only add fuel, fuel consumption of about 4-5L / 100 km.
Representative models: Toyota Leiling Hybrid, Honda Lingpai Hybrid, Nissan Xuanyi Hybrid.
2, PHEV plug-in hybrid: oilable and electric, pure electric endurance 50-100km, power loss fuel consumption of 4-6L.
Representative models: BYD Qin PLUS DM-i, Ideal ONE, Volkswagen Magotan GTE.
3. Pure electric vehicle type: pure electric, the lowest driving cost, high charging conditions and time requirements.
Representative models: AION Y, Tesla Model 3, Euler Good Cat.
Taking the Honda Civic as a typical pure fuel vehicle example, according to the 8L/100km fuel consumption and 8 yuan/liter no. 92 oil price, the cost per kilometer is 0.64 yuan! The cost of driving 20,000 kilometers a year has reached 12,800 yuan! There is also an annual maintenance cost of about 1791 yuan.
If you choose a hybrid model, represented by Toyota Leiling, its actual fuel consumption is about 5L/100 kilometers, and the cost per kilometer is 0.4 yuan. The annual cost of 20,000 kilometers is 8,000 yuan, which can save 4,800 yuan!
The maintenance is equivalent to the pure fuel version, about 1266 yuan. (1268 yuan for 1.2T)
If you choose a plug-in hybrid model, take BYD Qin PLUS DM-i as an example, and you can choose a 120km endurance version at a similar price. Its fuel consumption is about 5L/100 km, and the real pure electricity consumption is about 20 kWh/100 km.
According to the price of 0.6 yuan for home charging, the minimum driving cost (pure electricity) is 0.12 yuan / 100 kilometers, and the highest is only 0.4 yuan / 100 kilometers, compared with the fuel vehicle, the highest can save 10400 yuan, the lowest can save 4800 yuan.
As for the pure electric model, taking GAC AION Y as an example, the NEDC has a range of 500km. The real electricity consumption is about 16 kWh / 100 km, and the driving cost under the premise of home charging is only 0.09 yuan / 100 km. Compared with fuel vehicles, save 11,000 yuan per year!
In addition to the same wearing parts as the fuel vehicle, only need to replace the gear oil (730 yuan) once every three years, the average annual cost is only 243 yuan, so maintenance can also save about 1000 yuan!
Can you save about 12,000 yuan a year?
So that's it
Should we buy pure electric vehicles?
Although the cost of daily use, pure electric vehicles themselves still dissuade many consumers, including:
1. Although the pure electric endurance reaches 400-500km, there is actually a discount phenomenon.
Nowadays, more than 120,000 pure electric vehicles can basically reach 400-500km endurance, which is equivalent to the real endurance of some pure fuel vehicles.
But the embarrassing thing is that this claimed endurance is achieved under THELDC or more tolerant CLTC working conditions, and the daily driving energy consumption is higher, so it will basically be "20% off", if it is in a cold area, it is directly "60% off" to start.
2. The charging conditions are high, and it is difficult to charge during the peak period of external charging queues, and the charges are high.
For pure electric vehicles, charging is not so simple as refueling, often takes half an hour to an hour, and now the charging pile construction is not yet perfect, in the last year's "National Day outing" period, high-speed queuing, "waiting for 3 hours, charging half an hour" is not too much, not to mention that some charging piles may be damaged.
In addition, the third-party charging pile charge is not cheap, the peak time price is close to 2 yuan / kWh, if it is calculated according to the power consumption of 15 kWh / 100 km, the cost per kilometer has reached 3 cents, and some hybrid models Are not much different
Home charging piles are not "want to install", on the one hand, there is a problem of the distribution of power suppliers, for the old community, the carrying power is limited, the need to "expand";
In addition, there are "plugged escrow" property pipes, which try every means to obstruct the installation of charging piles. Finally, there is the problem of installation costs, if it is far from the position of the meter, then the installation of a charging pile may be more than 10,000 ...
3, chemical characteristics and physical structure, determine its fire risk is higher than the fuel vehicle, fire fighting difficulties.
Electric vehicles in charging, large load driving will generate a lot of heat, which has a lot of temperature control requirements for battery management, and once the overheating battery is naturally prone to fire.
And according to the characteristics of today's power batteries, a fire is directly and fiercely burned, and the difficulty of fire fighting is extremely high.
However, these factors are still acceptable to many consumers, as long as there are fixed parking spaces / new residential areas, there is no problem in choosing a big brand good reputation model. The following factors are the most concerned by consumers today, and they are also the most likely to reject pure electric models:
1. New energy vehicle damage insurance is high, and the money saved directly becomes insurance?
After the reform of the insurance industry, the coverage of new energy vehicle damage insurance has been improved, coupled with the high maintenance cost of new energy vehicles, so most insurance institutions have adjusted the amount of pure electric vehicles.
For example, Tesla Model 3, the first year of car damage insurance rose from 3500+ before the reform to 4500 + yuan, an increase of up to 1000 yuan, plus 2 million third parties, traffic insurance is generally about 6500 yuan, compared with fuel vehicles 800-1000 yuan higher.
2, used car retention rate is low, only half after 3 years?
Pure electric vehicles for battery, cognitive problems, the retention rate is lower than the fuel vehicle, here we also use the actual model as an example, to 3 years for the car replacement cycle, how much is the difference?
(PS: High-quality pure electric vehicles are also the product of the past 3 years, and can produce a lot of industrial waste in the past... ）
Honda Civic: 74.66%
Segment retention rate benchmark, which is actually a bit unfair to the following models... But it is also certain that the retention rate of first-line brand compact cars will not be low.
Toyota Ralink: 64.14%
It is still a model with a relatively high retention rate of the same level, the reputation is durable and reliable, and the retention rate of hybrid models is basically equivalent to that of fuel vehicles.
Volkswagen Magotan GTE: 47.60%
Its performance is relatively embarrassing, the Volkswagen system is not fuel-efficient, more in providing no less than 2.0T of power, for today's Chinese people have a low acceptance, so the retention rate is low.
Tesla Model 3: 50.14%
This all has to blame Tesla's price reduction, the official price has been continuously reduced, resulting in new cars are cheaper than used cars, which also affects the retention rate. However, in the past 1 year, the retention rate of second-hand cars has reached a staggering 90%, far exceeding that of fuel vehicles of the same age.
But in fact, the gap between hot-selling pure electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is only 15%, not to mention that fuel vehicles still have to "lose" the purchase tax. So don't think that used cars sell cheaply, they are free of purchase tax!
3. The cost of subsequent battery replacement is high
This is an objective fact today, but another fact is that the price of power batteries will continue to decline in the future. According to the battery price announced by Guoxuan Hi-Tech, the price per kilowatt-hour in 2016 was 2060 yuan, and by 2019 it has dropped to 1000 yuan, which has dropped by 50% in 3 years!
In the middle of 2020, the raw materials of power batteries have entered the trough price, and the average lithium iron phosphate battery is only 650 yuan / kWh, and the supply of Ningde era is even 570 yuan / kWh.
And according to the survey, the future power battery is expected to drop to 300 yuan / kWh, to a 50 kWh battery pack model calculation, the replacement of the power battery is only 15,000, not to mention that most of the power battery guarantees that the 8-year recession will not exceed 30%.
So in general, the choice of new energy vehicles in 3-5 years can be more than pure fuel vehicles, to 250,000 levels, the use of 5 years, this has been able to save more than 70,000! You can also get a smoother, smoother acceleration, quiet low-speed driving characteristics, but not afraid of the soaring oil price, how can you be bound by the oil price when you buy a car? As for friends who have bought a car, it doesn't matter, the price rises again and there is a ceiling, big deal let's drive less car?
This issue of interaction: If the oil price rises to 10 yuan / liter, will you choose pure electric vehicles?