The author | Pen Spring and Autumn
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Since "electrification" became the development trend of automobiles, the discussion of the "ban on combustion schedule" has not stopped. Some car companies and countries have clearly announced their own "stop selling fuel vehicles" plans and timetables. Judging from the statements of car companies and countries, "banning combustion" can be said to be the trend of the times.
National ban on the sale of fuel vehicles timetable
In fact, not only car companies have clarified their own fire ban timetable, due to the urgency of environmental protection and low carbon, many countries have also announced the timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles.
Among them, Norway's timetable is the most radical, announcing that it will implement a ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in 2025; the Netherlands was initially set for 2025, but later changed to 2030; the California government, which has independent legislative power in the United States, limited the ban to 2030, which also includes the car power Germany and the populous country India; France and the United Kingdom are postponed for ten years, and will ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in 2040, of which the United Kingdom will stop selling not only fuel vehicles, but also gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles.
At present, although the mainland has not yet formulated a specific timetable for the suspension of fuel vehicles, in 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Reply to Recommendation No. 7936 of the Second Session of the 13th National People's Congress".
In the reply, it was clearly pointed out that it will support qualified localities and fields to carry out pilot projects such as urban bus rental substitution and the establishment of fuel vehicle prohibition zones, and on the basis of success, the overall study and formulation of a timetable for the withdrawal of fuel vehicles will be planned.
This is the first time that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has responded positively in writing to the official attitude and plan on the issue of "banning combustion".
Judging from the reply, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles is no longer a theoretical discussion, but has entered the substantive action stage, such as the first replacement of urban bus rental and the establishment of fuel vehicle prohibition zones. However, although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is studying the ban on sales, it does not intend to "one size fits all". The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said: Proceeding from the national conditions of the mainland's vast territory and uneven development, it will organize in-depth and meticulous comprehensive analysis and judgment, and implement policies according to local conditions and classification.
For example, Hainan issued the "Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan" in 2019, stipulating that the sale of fuel vehicles will be completely banned in the province from 2030, which has also become the first region in the country to carry out new energy targets and planning for all fuel vehicles. According to most industry forecasts, China's total ban on the sale of fuel vehicles may be set for 2040.
At the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Scotland at the end of 2021, there is an important topic - about the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles in 2040 and the complete replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy;
In this issue, the car companies that agreed to stop selling fuel vehicles in 2040 are: Volvo, GM, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, BYD, Jaguar, Land Rover; these seven car companies signed the agreement, clearly indicating that they will completely stop selling fuel vehicles in 2040.
At the same time, traditional car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Nissan and Stellantis refused to sign the pledge.
The pledge was signed by groups including the government, fleet operators and automakers.
Although Volkswagen and other car companies have not signed the commitment, it does not mean that they are negative about the electrification transformation. In fact, the mainstream car companies have long clarified the timetable for the transformation of fire ban and electrification, and are accelerating.
For example, in November last year, Nissan announced that it plans to stop selling fuel vehicles after 2025 and will shift its research and development and sales direction to pure electric and hybrid models.
In April this year, Honda announced that pure electric and fuel cell models will account for 40% of total vehicle sales by 2030, 80% in 2035, and 100% in 2040, and stop production of fuel vehicles;
Volkswagen said it will withdraw from the European internal combustion engine market in 2033-2035, and plans to achieve carbon neutrality of all new production vehicles by 2050 at the latest, and stop selling fuel vehicles in the Chinese market no later than 2030.
In addition, BMW plans to provide 25 electric models to the global market by 2023, and by 2030, the co2 emissions of bicycles will be reduced by at least one-third compared with 2019.
Toyota also announced in October last year that it will stop producing traditional pure fuel vehicles by 2025 and instead develop and produce pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.
Mercedes-Benz announced in July last year that it will fully transition to pure electrification in 2030-2035, subject to market conditions. The new products launched by the Group after 2025 will all be based on the pure electric platform, and by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles sold by the Group will reach 50%.
GM plans to fully electrify (including other zero-emission models) by 2035, and the previously discontinued Hummer has been revived in the near future in a purely electric fashion. Ford expects to discontinue fuel vehicles in 2030.
Hyundai Kia, a Korean company, plans to stop selling fuel vehicles in the Eu market by 2035 and fully electrify them outside of Korea by 2040. Hyundai's luxury brand Jenisses also plans to achieve full electrification in 2030.
It is worth noting that BYD is the only Chinese car company among the signatories. It is understood that BYD signed a total of 3 agreements to accelerate the global electrification process and supporting infrastructure construction.
In addition to the above commitments, BYD has also signed the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, which aims to achieve zero emissions of medium- and heavy-duty truck sales by 30% by 2030 and zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty truck sales of 100% by 2040, so as to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050. Another agreement signed by BYD is to speed up the construction of an electric vehicle charging infrastructure network, including encouraging private investment and opening up the shared charging network to the society.
Industry insiders believe that the three agreements will help BYD further expand into Europe and even the global market.
It can be seen that with the continuous deepening of electrification in the automotive industry, countries have successively proposed and even clarified the timetable of "stopping the sale of fuel vehicles", resulting in the fact that automobile companies in various countries have to comply with the requirements of the government and the development of the automobile industry, and further clarify the specific plan for stopping the sale or production of fuel vehicles.
Taking China as an example, since the introduction of the "double integral" policy in China, more and more car companies have accelerated the transformation of electrification.
As one of the world's top two automobile companies, Volkswagen electric vehicles not only can not sell Tesla, but even compared with the new forces of independent brands such as Xiaopeng, there is a certain gap, which may also be very confusing for Volkswagen. But no one wants to succeed in the electric vehicle market more than Volkswagen.
According to the Announcement on the Average Fuel Consumption of Chinese Passenger Car Enterprises and The Credits for New Energy Vehicles in 2021 jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and the State Administration of Market Regulation. In terms of new energy points, the top three are Tesla, BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling. The top three companies whose average fuel consumption is not up to standard are FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen and Dongfeng Motor. Among them, FAW-Volkswagen generated a total of 1.183 million negative points, and SAIC Volkswagen generated 690,000 negative points, and the sum of the two was negative 1.873 million.
According to foreign media reports: Last year, Volkswagen bought Tesla points for 3,000 yuan per minute, a total of 3.6 billion yuan, which is obviously an astronomical number. It is understood that Tesla's revenue from sales credits in 2020 totaled $1.58 billion, not only much higher than the previous two years of $419 million and $593 million, but also more than the company's net profit of $721 million.
In addition, some experts predict that a point will rise to 5,000 yuan at the end of this year, because the current negative fuel consumption credit has far exceeded the positive integral of new energy, which is seriously in short supply. It can be seen that the public will have to pay a very high price for this. This is also an important reason why car companies such as Volkswagen have to urgently transform.
Whether the suspension of fuel vehicles is too hasty
It can be seen that although there are still different voices, most car companies and countries clearly support the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles, and consumers play a "passive" role in it. Passive acceptance of the arrangement of policies, passive acceptance of new cars created by car companies. Therefore, for the "ban on combustion", there are also many different voices in the industry, believing that the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is too hasty. The reason for the rush is mainly focused on the following points:
01
The hardware still can't keep up
According to the current development of new energy vehicles, it is still not realistic to replace fuel vehicles in the short term, because the hardware facilities of new energy vehicles are still far behind. This holiday new energy car owners have a deep experience, the journey is two hours, queuing up to charge takes 8 hours. According to statistics, as far as the current domestic new energy software and hardware equipment is concerned, the target will be achieved by 2050 at the latest.
02
The experience of new energy vehicles is still poor
For consumers, good things will naturally be generally welcomed. While electric vehicle technology has made great strides, there are still piles of problems:
First, it is uncertain which dynamic will become mainstream after the abolition of subsidies after 2020 and become a completely free competitive market. Secondly, there is no fundamental breakthrough in the three-electric system with motor, electronic control and battery as the core, and the hard damage of the mileage and charging time cannot be compared with the fuel vehicle, and when the technological breakthrough and market demand are reached, it is still uncertain.
The performance of the automobile market is actually promoted by consumers as buyers, and the final result still has to return to "people". Convincing consumers and making them willing to actively convert from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles is bound to require more corresponding policies and measures to protect.
03
The new energy used car market needs to be improved
According to third-party data, the three-year retention rate of pure electric vehicles is less than 25%, which is equivalent to a piece of "scrap iron" after five years. The general three-year retention rate of fuel vehicles is 55-70%, and the retention rate of pure electric vehicles is only about 25%, which means that an electric vehicle of 100,000 yuan is worth less than 30,000 yuan after three years. Therefore, the low retention rate of new energy vehicles also directly affects consumers' interest in pure electric vehicles.
04
Can waste battery pollution be solved?
The recycling of domestic batteries has not yet been systematized and industrialized. Everyone knows that battery pollution is very terrible, compared to the pollution of fuel vehicles, the damage caused by power batteries is not small.
In the past two years, just entered the first batch of electric vehicle battery scrap period, according to the prediction of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, combined with the car scrap life, power battery life and other factors, 2018-2020, the national cumulative scrap power battery will reach 120,000-200,000 tons, by 2025, the power battery annual scrap or up to 350,000 tons of scale, this scale is quite large. Therefore, it is equally difficult to say whether a perfect battery recycling system can be established in 10-20 years.
05
The ownership of all-electric vehicles only accounts for 1%-2% of the share
Although the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market has increased geometrically, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is far from being comparable to that of traditional energy models, and currently all-electric vehicles only occupy 1%-2% of the share, which is difficult to change in the short term. From the perspective of the general trend, the replacement of electric vehicles with fuel vehicles is irreversible, but it is difficult to assume the responsibility of "substitution" for a long period of time, and it cannot be achieved overnight.
Answer the comment
In the face of the new energy transformation outlet, for car companies, switching from traditional energy vehicles to new energy vehicles is undoubtedly a huge challenge, and behind the "breakaway", there are huge opportunities. For consumers, before the suspension time of fuel vehicles is set, users can continue to buy fuel models, at the same time, although the state and car companies have issued a suspension time, it is only a suspension of sale, and in the future, as long as their fuel vehicles meet the standards, they are not scrapped, or they can continue to drive on the road. Therefore, even if the 2040 really stops selling fuel vehicles, in the future for a period of time, you can still enjoy the fun of fuel vehicles.