Now, the outlet for changing electricity has come.
With the support of national policies, the power exchange industry is expected to achieve leapfrog growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
It is estimated that by 2025, the sales volume of passenger cars will exceed 2.8 million, the sales volume of replacement vehicles will be 500,000, the demand for supporting power stations will be about 28,000, and the total scale of the industrial chain will be about 300 billion.
The wind outlet is coming, there must be fish in the pool, and it is still a big fish, which has become the premise for Ruilan Auto to enter the track quickly.
But the underlying logic of the business model is to achieve profitability.
Unfortunately, from the past cases, no company has yet achieved business model access in the field of power exchange, including Weilai.
There is no successful precedent for power replacement, so can the new army Ruilan car do it?
Hurry up and whip
The name Ruilan Automobile appears in the car circle, and the full count is not more than half a year.
Because of Geely's endorsement, the construction process of the Ruilan Automobile brand can be described as rapid. At the end of October last year, it was announced that a new "power exchange travel brand" would be launched; in mid-December, it was announced that a joint venture company was established with Lifan; and the industrial and commercial registration procedures were completed on January 24, 2022.
On February 22, Ruilan Automobile held the first board of directors, and 5 senior executives were from Geely Automobile. Geely's elite team is fully stationed in Ruilan Automobile fait accompli.
The next day, based on the product created by the GBRC charging and replacing modular platform, Ruilan Automobile's first car model, maple leaf 60S, was officially launched for the B-end market.
That's how The Blue Car became.
fast! It is true that it is fast, but why doesn't fast start from slow?
As early as 2017, Geely has begun the research and development of power exchange modes and technologies. In 2019, geely accelerated the advancement of the technology after the national level voiced support for the power exchange mode.
With the intervention of Lifan Technology, which is also well experienced in the field of power exchange, it has further promoted Geely's clear acceleration of the two main directions of intelligence and standardization in the power exchange mode.
Maple Leaf Auto, which has long laid out the travel market, is under the umbrella of Ruilan Automobile and has become its main brand for the B-end market, and another C-end brand will be released separately on another date.
Therefore, the fast horse and whip of Ruilan Automobile is essentially a thick accumulation of Geely cars.
Change the electrocution
Although there are many fish in the pool where the electricity is changed, it is not easy to catch them.
In addition to the previous pioneers such as Weilai and BAIC New Energy, Ningde Times, Xiaopeng, Ean, Aichi, Weima, SAIC, Dongfeng, Nezha, etc. have entered the game, and even Sinopec has actively laid out the replacement power station.
Since you can see the fish, of course others can see it. Since you want to catch fish, of course others want to catch fish.
For example, the ambitious Weilai.
Shen Fei, vice president of WEILAI, once estimated that 50 orders were accepted every day, which was the break-even point of a single substation in WEILAI.
——Calculated according to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity, an average of 50 kilowatt-hours of electricity per unit, 50 singles a day of electricity replacement, and an annual income of 500,000 or 600,000 yuan, which can basically cover the site rent and equipment depreciation.
If you calculate according to the electricity replacement of each vehicle once a week, a replacement power station must radiate about 350 vehicles to support 50 orders a day and reach the break-even point.
At the same time, it must be comprehensively considered that the owners of NIO who have installed home charging piles will dilute the demand for power replacement, and it is roughly estimated that at least 800,000 vehicles are needed to cover the cost of substation replacement, which is much higher than the 167,000 vehicles delivered by WEILAI at the end of last year.
In this way, it is inevitable that Weilai will lose money for electricity.
It is not only Weilai that loses money, but also many more, such as BAIC New Energy.
BAIC BJEV's power exchange account is better calculated. According to BAIC insiders, the initial investment of a replacement power station plus the basic maintenance cost is nearly 10 million, and the battery reserve alone will exceed 3.2 million.
At present, the sales volume of BAIC BJEV's rivers and rivers only relies on the status quo of the B-end market to maintain, which cannot support the profitability of power exchange.
The future is great
A business that doesn't make money is hard to last, and that's a three-year-old who understands.
Therefore, when Geely designed Ruilan, the primary consideration was not how much to invest, but to invest the money that should be invested in the key point that can most leverage the market, and do its best to make Ruilan Automobile profitable.
On the one hand, it is based on core science and technology, technology updates, and construction costs are lower.
Geely's "Easy To Call" as a new power exchange force, will play an important role in the development of Ruilan Automobile.
As the support of Ruilan Automobile's power exchange network, the launch of a new 2.0 replacement power station in the second half of 2021 is very suitable for the needs of Ruilan striding forward.
The new substation has a smaller footprint, more modules and greater flexibility. By reducing the cost of its own infrastructure, venues, leasing and unmanned operation, we will significantly reduce the overall cost.
Significantly increase the frequency of network power exchanges and the density of regional networks, thereby reducing the time spent in peak power exchange queues and idle power exchange equipment.
The initial investment of the 2.0 substation is less than one-third of that of the traditional substation, and a single station can even be built within 3 hours if the basic conditions are met.
This is where Ruilan Auto dares to promise to build a super network of 5,000 substations by 2025.
On the other hand, there is a travel platform with a head like Cao Cao Travel.
Unlike all the players who change the electric circuit, Ruilan has such a dependence as Cao Cao's car.
Cao Cao's travel can at least be the bottom of RuiLan's break-even.
As of June 2021, Cao Cao Chuxing has launched 61 cities across the country, and the number of kaicheng occupies the first place in the online ride-hailing B2C platform, and has remained so far.
Imagine that cao cao car will switch to the power exchange channel in 3 years, and expand to major platforms with this influence, and the innate advantages of Ruilan power exchange will be immediately reflected.
On the other hand, the C-end market is poised to develop.
Weilai and BAIC BJEV eventually encountered many difficulties in the power exchange market, and the key problem lies in the C-end market and the formation of a scale effect.
Facing the C-end, in early February, the information of Ruilan's 3 power-changing vehicles facing private users flowed out, code-named "SD3A-1", "SD3A-2", "SD3A-3".
Through the partially exposed data, it can be seen that the new car adopts the rear-drive design, which accelerates within 6 seconds of 100 kilometers to provide owners with stronger driving pleasure, and the WLTP range is greater than or equal to 550 kilometers, which fully meets daily use.
Because of Ruilan, we can finally wait for a price civilian, the quality does not collapse to change the tram. This has also become a key part of Ruilan's profitability.
Realistically speaking, it is not easy to change electricity at this stage, and the input-output ratio is the pain that must be experienced.
Can Ruilan Auto finally stand out? This is a problem that so far can not find a successful case to refer to. But there is no doubt that on the power exchange track, Ruilan is inherently more likely to succeed than Weilai.
If it goes well, the gas station will be killed in the future, and the probability is Ruilan instead of Weilai.