In recent days, the news of the Russo-Ukrainian war has become the focus of attention of major media, and it is difficult for people to turn a deaf ear to all kinds of news. Some people say that this is the first war in the era of short video live broadcasting. However, leaving aside the enmity between Russia and Ukraine, what is the specific impact of this war on the domestic automotive industry? Let's dissect it today.
1, oil prices continue to rise The cost of using cars is high
Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer and the largest supplier of natural gas and oil to Europe's supply market, with a significant impact on the world energy market. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the international oil price quickly broke through the high point of 100 US dollars / barrel, the domestic oil price because the ceiling is 130 US dollars / barrel, so the oil price also has the possibility of continuing to rise, perhaps in March, we will usher in the 92nd gasoline to break the historical mark of 8 yuan. As long as this tension between Russia and Ukraine is not alleviated, oil prices are likely to remain high, further pushing up the cost of cars for car owners.
2, push up the price of power batteries New energy vehicle companies may encounter difficulties
On the surface, a further rise in oil prices may be a good thing for new energy vehicles. However, since last year, the price of power batteries has been rising in price, and the new energy vehicle power battery required nickel, lithium and other metals, Russia is a fairly important supplier of raw materials, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia suffered sanctions from Western countries, boosted the price of nickel, lithium and other metal raw materials rose.
Although the domestic nickel and lithium reserves and production capacity are relatively high, they will also be affected by international market prices, and the price of raw materials is inevitable. For battery companies such as the Ningde era, there may be certain benefits, but for domestic new energy vehicle companies, they must continue to be plagued by the price increase of power batteries, and the operating costs continue to be high, and there have been many new energy models with poor cost control selling a loss. In the future, the price of new energy vehicles will increase further, and in the context of subsidies that have declined, the people's enthusiasm for consumption will be suppressed for new energy vehicles with high prices.
3, the impact on the chip industry is small, but will exacerbate the tension of chips
In the past two years, the domestic automotive industry has been affected by the lack of chips. Behind this is mainly affected by the new champion epidemic and the "inaction" of major chip manufacturers. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, due to the low participation of Russia and Ukraine in the chip industry chain, it will not affect the production and manufacturing of chips.
However, as dollar-denominated commodity prices continue to rise due to the impact of the war, it will also push up the expectation of chip prices, further exacerbating the tension of chips. For the domestic automotive industry, only after the domestic automotive chip independent production capacity comes up, the lack of core will be alleviated to a certain extent. This year, the high probability will still face the difficult situation of lack of cores, the waiting time of domestic users from booking to picking up the car will be further extended, and the terminal sales price will also be greatly affected.
4, automobile exports or will shrink but still need to be further observed
Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries are an important area for our domestic automobile exports, according to statistics, the export volume to Russia ranked in the top three of our automobile exports last year, in Ukraine and other Eastern European countries, our domestic automobiles also have a large market. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, on the one hand, trade was blocked, on the other hand, the consumption capacity of Russian and Ukrainian residents would be affected, which would have a big impact on the export of domestic automobiles to these markets.
However, because our domestic cars are known for their high quality and low price, when the purchasing power of Russian and Ukrainian residents declines, our cars may be more popular with local residents, but further observation is still needed. At the same time, the export of automobiles will also be significantly affected by the scale and duration of the war, so it depends on the further trend of the war.
Although there are many right and wrong behind the Russo-Ukrainian war, it will also have a profound impact on the local people. While we do not want to see war, we must also be vigilant about the impact of war on the domestic automobile industry. For consumers, it is not a good time to start a new car, and domestic auto companies must also be prepared to tighten their belts to live a life, and this year's auto market is really difficult to be optimistic.