The technological content, manufacturing level, brand value and impact of heavy trucks on the whole value chain are very important, and reading heavy trucks also understands commercial vehicles.
Author 丨 Wang Jun
Edited by 丨 Dahua
Produced 丨 Automan Media
In January 2022, domestic commercial vehicle sales were 344,000 units, down 5.5% month-on-month and 25.0% year-on-year.
Among them, heavy-duty truck sales of 95,400 units, up 65% month-on-month, but compared with the sales of 183,000 units in the same period last year, it decreased by 88,000 units, down 48% year-on-year, which is the lowest sales volume in the first month of recent years. It seems that the "opening red" of 2022 is difficult and helpless.
1
It varies from high to low
In January 2022, the "one rise and one fall" of the heavy truck city is the general trend, and the competitive situation of the various princes is "horizontally looking into the peak of the mountain side".
Sinotruk suddenly, january sales of heavy-duty trucks 27,700 vehicles, an increase of 7% year-on-year, is the only heavy-duty truck enterprises with positive growth, the market share of 29.06%, the first month of the Year of the Tiger champion, and the latecomer advantage is obvious, the growth momentum is strong.
After regaining the monthly sales championship in December 2021, FAW Jiefang sold 25,800 heavy-duty trucks in January 2022, a difference of nearly 2,000 units from Sinotruk, down 63% year-on-year, with a market share of 27.09%, ranking second in the heavy-duty truck industry.
Dongfeng Company (including Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, Dongfeng Liuqi Chenglong, Dongfeng Huashen, etc.) sold a total of 17,600 heavy-duty trucks in January, down 43% year-on-year and with a market share of 18.45%. Relying on models with higher prices and high-quality services, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles has won market praise in the field of China VI emissions and new energy vehicles.
Also in January, the sales of Shaanxi Automobile Group, Foton Automobile, Dayun Heavy Truck, SAIC Hongyan, Jianghuai Automobile and Xuzhou Heavy Truck were 0.69 million units, 0.67 million units, 0.26 million units, 0.25 million units, 0.21 million units and 0.15 million units, respectively.
From the sales data, China National Heavy Duty Truck has made rapid progress, following last year's five consecutive months to become the monthly sales champion, this year's Yellow River heavy truck, the new Shande card, MAX heavy truck into the market, although it still needs the inspection period of the market, but heavy duty truck in the engine, transmission, parts and other full value chain has a strong advantage, and gradually show a strong competitive advantage.
Although FAW Liberation ranked second in January this year, it thrives in the tractor market, and the rapid development of e-commerce logistics and cold chain logistics industries will continue to stimulate the tractor market, coupled with its product advantages and word-of-mouth effect accumulated over the years, it will stably occupy the first camp.
Dongfeng ranked third, sales and liberation and heavy trucks gradually drifted away, there is no advantage in new product reserves, but it responded to the national call in advance, as soon as possible to achieve full coverage of China VI, inventory pressure is small, it is easier to light up, if the industry fully implements the National VI emission standards, there are more opportunities.
FAW Liberation and Heavy Duty Truck go hand in hand, the competition is in a state of glue, and anyone who does not pay attention can take the position; the possibility of Dongfeng being the "second oldest" is temporarily unknown, there is a gap of nearly 10,000 vehicles with the top two, and there are still 10,000 vehicles in the fourth and fifth places, which can properly rank third; Shaanxi Automobile and Foton, who are not willing to be left behind, have done everything in their power to compete for the palace army, although this wave of epidemic has seriously injured Shaanxi Automobile's vitality, but the future can be expected.
Other car companies also have their own advantages, but to squeeze into the "first camp", they still need to work hard and wait for time.
2
Products are light and heavy
Competition is becoming more and more fierce, and various car companies will focus their greatest energy on the improvement of product strength.
Sinotruk's main products are replaced, with the intention of overtaking in curves. Shandeka China VI AMT tractor, equipped with Sinotruk S-AMT16 gearbox, transmission efficiency of up to 99.8%, safe, efficient and reliable, low fuel consumption; the vehicle adopts European technology, airbag air suspension design, shock absorption force enhancement; B10 life of up to 1.8 million kilometers, creating a four-year 2 million kilometers efficient operation record.
FAW liberates product empowerment and expands its advantages. Jiefang J6V can match ca6DM2 or CA6DM3 engines according to demand, with fast start and high speed; the new 440 drive axle takes into account both lightweight and load carrying capacity, and the reliability is increased by 16%; the life of the three major assemblies B10 reaches 1.5 million kilometers; the engine oil change cycle is 150,000 kilometers, and the gearbox and rear axle oil change cycle is 200,000 kilometers, effectively reducing the number of vehicle maintenance.
Dongfeng Company was not willing to accept the people, and found another way. Dongfeng Tianlong KL hazardous tractor, equipped with Dongfeng Cummins Z14560 engine + DT14 gearbox + Dongfeng 440 drive axle of the golden power combination, direct gear + small speed ratio + low rolling resistance tire combination, so that the vehicle speed up faster, and has a wide economic speed range, running long-distance fuel consumption is lower.
Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Truck is guided by user needs, market segmentation, and layout of targeted products. Delong X6000 is a trump product tailored for the needs of users such as express delivery, light throw express, general cargo express, plain special line, etc. The car is equipped with WP13H series engine, with Fast Zhixing AMT transmission, the whole vehicle has higher transmission efficiency.
Foton Motor strives to be the first by virtue of its advantages. Auman Planet has the largest power and torque in its class, speeding up 17% faster than other similar models at full load; the truck 6.5 tons has the lowest weight of the same class, 9780 mm container length, to help customers earn more.
3
There are wonders of lifting
Looking at the ups and downs of the heavy-duty truck industry, the reasons for the sharp increase in the market in January and the year-on-year decline are caused by the trend of the macro-economy and the inherent law of the industry's own development. The main reasons are the following four points.
First of all, the economic start-up is still slow, and the terminal demand is sluggish.
Although the 2021 Central Economic Conference decided to start economic construction and investment in 2022 ahead, accelerate and intensify, according to the law of economic development, due to the epidemic situation in 2021 and various complex factors, there is also a buffer period for economic start-up. This means that there is a "time difference" between the launch of the market and the demand of the terminal.
Since May 2021, a series of unfavorable factors such as insufficient supply of goods in the logistics industry, limited production in the manufacturing industry, less goods for vehicles, sluggish start of infrastructure projects, and higher inventory in the heavy-duty truck industry have not been digested in subsequent months. Until January 2022, the previous "pathology" was still evident.
Secondly, according to the custom, all heavy truck companies will play an "ambush" after the Spring Festival and before the arrival of the traditional peak season, including "releasing water to raise fish" in the distribution channel in advance.
Moreover, due to the return of logistics practitioners to their hometowns for the New Year and the sluggish demand for car purchases, manufacturers and dealers did not have too many expectations for the market in January, but mainly prepared for the traditional peak season.
Third, the base of the same period last year is too large, and a sharp year-on-year decline in 2022 is inevitable.
In January 2021, the sales volume of the mainland heavy-duty truck market suddenly exploded to 183,000 units, which shocked the industry. Because this sales volume is the highest record of year-on-year sales in the heavy-duty truck market, nearly 70,000 more than the previous peak period (116,600 vehicles in January 2020), such a high same period of time base, if you want to keep up with the year-on-year in 2022, it is destined to be a "dream".
Fourth, sales in December 2021 are relatively sluggish, and it is inevitable that there will be month-on-month growth.
The heavy-duty truck market sold 57,500 units in December 2021, a slightly higher sales volume than in August, October and November of that year, and less than the monthly average of 58,200 units in the second half of 2021. Such a low level of sales has laid the foundation for month-on-month growth in January 2022.
Although the demand for the terminal market at the beginning of the new year is sluggish, in order to win the "opening red", in the case of the inability to achieve the year-on-year expectations, it is also inevitable that there will be a large increase in the chain.
4
The start is a lot of mountains
Looking at the heavy truck market in January, in addition to China National Heavy Duty Truck riding a dust, quickly surpassing FAW Liberation, the ranking of other car companies is relatively stable; Dongfeng Company can sit firmly in the position of the third oldest with the strength of the group, the distance between Shaanxi Automobile and Foton has shrunk, and the ranking of the rest of the car companies is basically stable.
If you want to sort out the ranking sequence, it is estimated that it will not be until the end of the first quarter, and the new and relatively stable competitive pattern of the domestic heavy truck industry will gradually become clear.
According to the law of industry development, the heavy-duty truck industry will have a cycle in five years: in the five years after 2017, heavy-duty trucks have seen unprecedented good development; now five years later, according to the historical development law, the heavy-duty truck industry is about to enter a period of flat or even sluggish development.
Judging from the sales of heavy-duty trucks in January, compared with the same period in 2021, in addition to the positive growth of heavy duty trucks by 7%, the top ten companies have declined to varying degrees. Among them, 8 companies have declined by more than 35%, and the decline rates of the top three in the liberation and Dongfeng have reached 63% and 43% respectively.
This is not an isolated case, indicating that the general trend of the industry is in a downward period, and it is also the reaction of the economic situation.
From the analysis of the industry situation, the overall domestic road transportation situation of more cars and less goods is difficult to change in a short period of time. Judging from the market around the "Double 11" in 2021 and the Spring Festival in 2022, the increase in freight rates has not reached expectations, and the freight market continues to be sluggish, showing a cyclical trend.
It is understood that in 2021, the National VI emission standards will be upgraded, and in some key heavy-duty truck sales areas, many dealers will have a large number of National V vehicles in their hands. By the end of 2021, some vehicles that have not yet been sold to the terminal market can only be licensed in advance and sold as second-hand cars, and these "second-hand new cars" will inevitably eat away at the sales share of new cars.
In addition, after the liberalization of the foreign investment equity ratio, Scania, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and other well-known heavy trucks have chosen to build factories in China, and the process of production is accelerating, and it is expected that the era of localization production will be opened in 2022. The domestic high-end heavy-duty truck market will face more severe competition.
Of course, some people say that more and more regional restrictions on China IV vehicles will promote a new wave of car changes, but from the perspective of market ownership and the regional scope of policy implementation, the impact of this wave of policies is far less than the previous National III elimination. Moreover, whether you can make money after changing cars is also the first problem for car buyers to consider.
All of the above, coupled with the repeated regional outbreaks of the domestic epidemic, the complexity and changeability of international relations, and the winding trend of the economic situation, all indicate that the competition in the heavy-duty truck market in 2022 will be more intense and more difficult.
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