The lithography machine is the most important core equipment in the chip manufacturing process, and its performance level directly determines the advanced degree of the chip manufacturing process. In this field, the Dutch lithography machine giant ASML can be said to be unique in the world, and its high-end EUV lithography machine is regarded as a "guest of honor" by major wafer foundries.
However, just as ASML was investing heavily in the development of a more advanced High NA EUV, an unexpected situation quietly happened. Intel, which was originally regarded as a latecomer catch-up, not only won the first right to launch High NA EUV, but even contracted all of ASML's production capacity this year. TSMC, which was originally considered the most qualified for High NA EUV priority, suddenly announced that it would temporarily abandon the purchase, claiming that the price was too expensive.
This reversal of development not only surprised and embarrassed ASML, but also triggered speculation in the industry about the reshuffling of the international chip map. What is driving Intel's meteoric rise in this critical area? What does TSMC's "not buying" mean? This series of questions can't help but make people doubt ASML's high-end EUV dream.
1. ASML's monopoly position and high-end EUV pursuit
To understand the ins and outs of this series of events, it is first necessary to understand the place of lithography machines in chip manufacturing and ASML's unique position in this field.
As we all know, the lithography machine is one of the core equipment of chip manufacturing, which can engrave a fine circuit image on the surface of the silicon wafer by means of light beam irradiation, which determines the size and performance level of the chip. With the continuous advancement of Moore's Law, the chip manufacturing process continues to develop in the direction of miniaturization, and the performance requirements for lithography machines are becoming increasingly stringent.
In this critical area, ASML can be said to be in a league of its own. As the world's largest supplier of lithography machines, ASML not only has a leading position in the field of ArF quasi-continuous wave lithography machines, but also has exclusive control of this high-end technology with its EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machine, becoming a well-deserved "guest of honor" in the industry.
The key reason why ASML can stand out in this field is its long-term continuous investment in EUV technology and technology accumulation. EUV lithography is a key support for the current chip process development to 7nm and below, and compared with the traditional ArF quasi-continuous wave lithography machine, EUV lithography technology can provide higher resolution and accuracy for the process.
However, the research and development of EUV lithography technology is not achieved overnight, but requires long-term technology accumulation and large capital investment. According to ASML's public disclosure, it has started the research and development of EUV technology since 1998, and after more than 20 years of unremitting efforts, it finally achieved a breakthrough in mass production of this technology in 2017.
More critically, ASML has formed a monopoly on high-end EUV lithography technology. Data shows that since the mass production of EUV lithography machines in 2017, ASML has delivered nearly 140 EUV lithography machines to major wafer foundries around the world, occupying an absolute advantage in the entire market. These are mainly for industry giants such as TSMC and Samsung, while other rising stars such as SMIC have no chance to obtain.
It is because of this monopoly that ASML is able to dominate the selling price of EUV lithography machines. It is reported that the current price of an EUV lithography machine is as high as 165 million US dollars, which also makes this key equipment an "economic burden" for chip manufacturing companies. However, the importance of EUV technology has surpassed the price factor, and the major foundries can only swallow their anger and place orders with ASML for purchases.
This has formed a typical industrial monopoly pattern. With the first-mover advantage of EUV technology, ASML occupies a dominant position in the relationship with downstream fabs, and can not only grab huge profits through high prices, but also provide a steady stream of financial support for its technological innovation and market position. Such a virtuous circle has also made ASML's monopoly position in the industry more and more consolidated.
It can be said that ASML's EUV technology has not only set a new standard in the field of chip manufacturing, but also shaped a new industrial ecology. On the one hand, it has promoted the technological progress of the entire industry, enabling more advanced chip manufacturing processes. On the other hand, it also strengthens ASML's voice in this key link and becomes an indispensable "guest" of major wafer foundries.
It is based on this position advantage that ASML has been committed to the development of more advanced High NA EUV lithography machines in recent years, trying to further consolidate its industry dominance. However, just as this high-end technology was about to come out, a strong counterattack from Intel surprised and embarrassed ASML.
二、 英特尔崛起,抢得High NA EUV 优先权
While ASML was making every effort to develop High NA EUV, Intel, which was originally regarded as a "latecomer catcher", achieved a counterattack at this critical moment.
Specifically, Intel not only seized the first opportunity in the first release of the High NA EUV lithography machine, but even contracted all of ASML's High NA EUV production capacity this year. This is undoubtedly a blow to ASML, and it also marks Intel's re-emergence in the chip process competition.
What prompted Intel to achieve such an "earth-shattering blow" at this critical moment? Fundamentally, there are several main reasons:
First, Intel, as an early participant in the research and development of EUV technology, enjoys a unique advantage in this area. As we all know, ASML's EUV technology development process has not been smooth sailing, and it has faced many technical bottlenecks in the early days. During this critical period, Intel, as the initiator and main supporter of the EUV R&D Alliance, provided a large amount of financial and technical support to ASML, and played an important role in promoting ASML to break through key technical obstacles.
This approach of "revenge for kindness" has enabled Intel to accumulate rich experience and voice in its interaction with ASML. Later, at the critical moment when ASML launched High NA EUV, Intel took the lead in obtaining the first right to launch the new generation of EUV technology with this unique advantage.
Second, as the world's leading chip manufacturer, Intel has a clear advantage in terms of capital and bargaining power. The price of a High NA EUV lithography machine is as high as 350 million euros, which is undoubtedly a heavy financial burden for the average foundry. But for a tech giant like Intel, it's not a cause for concern.
As a result, Intel was not only able to lock in the right of first delivery of High NA EUV through large upfront payments and early orders, but also used its bargaining power to negotiate more favorable terms with ASML. It can be said that Intel's advantages in terms of financial strength and bargaining chips have laid a solid foundation for it to obtain High NA EUV technology one step ahead of schedule.
Third, Intel's restart of the foundry business has also injected new impetus into its preemptive layout in the high-end EUV field.
As the world's largest supplier of CPU chips, Intel has long focused on the R&D and manufacturing of its own brand products. However, with the rapid rise of ARM-based smartphone chips and the leading position of foundries such as TSMC and Samsung in advanced manufacturing processes, Intel's dominance has begun to be challenged.
To this end, Intel has adjusted its strategy in recent years and began to focus on the foundry business. This is reflected not only in its acquisition of Tower Semiconductor and its pursuit of a foundry in the United States, but also in its aggressive seizure of high-end EUV technology.
It can be said that the key to Intel's restarting foundry strategy is to regain the initiative in the competition of advanced processes. High NA EUV is a key support to achieve this goal, which can not only help Intel catch up with TSMC, Samsung and other pioneers in the 7nm and below process, but also provide strong support for its future expansion in the foundry market.
Based on the combination of these factors, Intel finally won the competition for the High NA EUV lithography machine, not only grabbing the first opportunity, but also contracting all the production capacity of ASML this year. This series of moves undoubtedly injected strong momentum into Intel, which was originally considered to be in a latecomer position, and also cast a shadow on ASML's "high-end EUV dream".
3. TSMC suspends procurement, ASML is "a little embarrassed"
While Intel was the first to get the High NA EUV priority, the statement of another industry giant, TSMC, also surprised ASML.
Shortly after the news that Intel took the lead in announcing the first opportunity to get High NA EUV, TSMC also recently said that it has no plans to purchase this new EUV at present, on the grounds that its price is too high and beyond TSMC's affordability.
This is undoubtedly a rather surprising and embarrassing news for ASML. After all, TSMC has always been regarded as the "guest of honor" of ASML's high-end EUV technology, and it can be said that it is the most qualified to have priority access to this critical equipment. And now, TSMC has suddenly turned around, saying that the current EUV lithography machine can fully meet its production needs in the next few years, and does not plan to introduce expensive High NA EUV.
For TSMC's move, industry insiders generally believe that there are multiple considerations hidden behind it:
First of all, from a technical point of view, TSMC clearly speaks highly of the performance of High NA EUV, believing that it can provide strong support for more advanced processes. But at the same time, TSMC is also clearly aware that the price of this new type of lithography machine is too high, and it has reached the point of "prohibitive".
It is reported that the price of each High NA EUV is as high as 350 million euros, which is almost double the price of the previous EUV lithography machine. This may be acceptable for TSMC, which has strong financial strength, but it poses a heavy burden to other latecomers.
Against this backdrop, TSMC has had to carefully weigh the cost-effectiveness of old and new technologies. While High NA EUV can drive smaller processes, its high price will inevitably drive up the cost of the entire foundry. This will undoubtedly compress TSMC's profit margins, especially in the face of increasingly fierce market competition.
Secondly, TSMC's decision also reflects its confidence in the process technology competition. As the world's leading wafer foundry, TSMC has been leading the industry in advanced processes of 7nm and below, and has mastered the industry's most advanced process technology.
Although High NA EUV can further push the process down, TSMC said that the current EUV lithography machine is enough to cope with the technical needs of the next few years, including support for Apple's A16 processor process. This fully shows that TSMC is not overly reliant on the technical advantages of High NA EUV, but has the ability to maintain a competitive advantage with its own process advantages.
Finally, TSMC's statement on this issue also reflects its strong position in the industry competition. As the world's leading wafer foundry, TSMC's products and services have always been favored, and its pricing power is quite strong. In high-end devices such as High NA EUV, TSMC obviously has no intention of accepting ASML's higher price than the market expects, but chooses to give up for the time being and wait for ASML to make concessions in cost control.
It can be said that TSMC's decision undoubtedly embarrassed ASML. After all, ASML spent a lot of money and energy on the development of High NA EUV, thinking that it would continue to consolidate its monopoly in the field of high-end lithography machines. But now, even TSMC, which has always actively pursued its technology, "does not buy it", which undoubtedly casts a shadow over ASML's EUV dream.
What worries ASML even more is that if even the industry giant TSMC has such a change of attitude, other latecomer foundries may not be able to afford the high price of High NA EUV. Once the market is cold, ASML's high-end EUV dream may also be shattered.
It can be said that this decision of TSMC has undoubtedly hit ASML's ambitions. As the largest buyer of EUV technology for a long time, TSMC's "don't buy" attitude undoubtedly makes ASML feel worried about its prospects. After all, if high-end EUV lithography machines are not widely promoted in the market, ASML's technological monopoly will also be in jeopardy.
More critically, this change may also lead to a reshuffle of the entire chip manufacturing industry pattern. After all, the dominance of EUV lithography technology has always been in the hands of ASML, while foundries such as TSMC have to rely on ASML's technical support. However, if this pattern is turbulent, it will not only shake ASML's position in the industry, but also may trigger drastic changes in the chip supply chain.
Therefore, it is generally believed in the industry that ASML is undoubtedly quite embarrassed by TSMC's decision. After all, this means that its technological monopoly in the field of high-end EUVs is being challenged, and the future development prospects are also clouded.
But behind this series of changes, what secrets are hidden? After all, while TSMC "didn't buy it", Intel successfully grabbed the priority of High NA EUV. What is driving this reversal?
Fourth, the rise of Intel and the dilemma of ASML
From TSMC's suspension of procurement of High NA EUV to Intel's preemptive access to this key technology, the development of this series of events undoubtedly surprised and embarrassed ASML.
The reason for this is that, in addition to TSMC's own strategic considerations, Intel's role in this process cannot be ignored. In fact, the rise of Intel has been an important driver of ASML's current predicament.
First of all, Intel, as an early participant in the research and development of EUV technology, has accumulated unique advantages in this field. As we all know, ASML's EUV technology development process has not been smooth sailing, and it has faced many technical bottlenecks in the early days. During this critical period, Intel, as the initiator and main supporter of the EUV R&D Alliance, provided a large amount of financial and technical support to ASML, and played an important role in promoting ASML to break through key technical obstacles.
This approach of "revenge for kindness" has enabled Intel to accumulate rich experience and voice in its interaction with ASML. Later, at the critical moment when ASML launched High NA EUV, Intel took the lead in obtaining the first right to launch the new generation of EUV technology with this unique advantage.
Secondly, Intel's advantages in funding and bargaining power are also the key to its success in grabbing the priority of High NA EUV. The price of a High NA EUV lithography machine is as high as 350 million euros, which is undoubtedly a heavy burden for the average foundry. But for a tech giant like Intel, it's not a cause for concern.
As a result, Intel was not only able to lock in the right of first delivery of High NA EUV through large upfront payments and early orders, but also used its bargaining power to negotiate more favorable terms with ASML. This has largely squeezed the sourcing space of other fabs.
Finally, Intel's strategic move to restart the foundry business has also injected new impetus into its preemptive layout in the high-end EUV field. As the world's largest supplier of CPU chips, Intel has been focusing on the R&D and manufacturing of its own brand products. However, with the rise of ARM-based smartphone chips and the technological leadership of foundries such as TSMC and Samsung, Intel's dominance has begun to be severely challenged.
To this end, Intel had to begin to focus on the foundry business in order to regain the initiative in the advanced process competition. High NA EUV is a key support to achieve this goal, which can not only help Intel catch up with TSMC and Samsung in the 7nm and below process, but also provide strong support for its future expansion in the foundry market.
It can be said that Intel's breakthrough performance in the High NA EUV lithography machine is an important part of its strategy to restart foundry. This not only allows it to regain its initiative in the advanced process competition, but also sends a strong signal to the industry that Intel is re-emerging as a process competitive force that cannot be ignored.
For ASML, this series of changes has undoubtedly brought great challenges and dilemmas.
First of all, the rise of Intel means that ASML's technology monopoly in the high-end EUV field is being severely challenged. In the past, ASML has always relied on its first-mover advantage in EUV technology to firmly grasp the voice of the entire industry. But now, the rise of Intel has undoubtedly sent a strong impact on this pattern, and even counterattacked to seize the priority of High NA EUV, which casts a shadow on the future development of ASML.
Secondly, TSMC's "don't buy" attitude also sent a warning signal to ASML. As ASML's largest customer, TSMC's decision has undoubtedly hit ASML's ambitions. If other wafer foundries follow TSMC's lead, ASML's High NA EUV technology may be difficult to widely promote in the market, which will also seriously affect the maintenance of its technology monopoly.
More critically, this series of changes may also lead to a reshuffle of the entire chip manufacturing industry pattern. After all, the dominance of EUV lithography technology has always been in the hands of ASML, while foundries such as TSMC have to rely on ASML's technical support. However, if this pattern is turbulent, it will not only shake ASML's position in the industry, but also may trigger drastic changes in the chip supply chain.
Therefore, under the attack of the rise of Intel and TSMC's "don't buy it" attitude, ASML has to face an unprecedented dilemma.
First of all, ASML's technological monopoly in the field of high-end EUV is being severely challenged. In the past, ASML has always relied on its first-mover advantage in EUV technology to firmly grasp the voice of the entire industry. But now, the rise of Intel has undoubtedly sent a strong impact on this pattern, and even counterattacked to seize the priority of High NA EUV, which casts a shadow on the future development of ASML.
Secondly, TSMC's "don't buy" attitude also sends a warning signal to ASML. As ASML's largest customer, TSMC's decision has undoubtedly hit ASML's ambitions. If other wafer foundries follow TSMC's lead, ASML's High NA EUV technology may be difficult to widely promote in the market, which will also seriously affect the maintenance of its technology monopoly.
More critically, this series of changes may also lead to a reshuffle of the entire chip manufacturing industry pattern. After all, the dominance of EUV lithography technology has always been in the hands of ASML, while foundries such as TSMC have to rely on ASML's technical support. However, if this pattern is turbulent, it will not only shake ASML's position in the industry, but also may trigger drastic changes in the chip supply chain.
In this case, ASML is undoubtedly in an unprecedented predicament. On the one hand, it must find a way to cope with Intel's strong rise in the High NA EUV field and maintain its technological leadership. On the other hand, it must also find ways to convince industry giants such as TSMC to continue sourcing its high-end EUV equipment to secure its voice in the market.
For ASML, this was a difficult choice. After all, it needs to strike a balance between maintaining its technological monopoly and satisfying customer needs. If you defend your rights and interests too strongly, it may lead to more customers turning their backs; However, if it caters too much to customer needs, it may gradually weaken its technological leadership.
Therefore, ASML is bound to carefully weigh the interests of all parties in the future development path and seek an optimal balance that can take into account its own development and customer needs. This will not only require ASML to adjust its technological innovation and marketing strategy, but also to reposition its role in the industry landscape.
Only in this way will it be possible for ASML to avoid falling into a more passive situation and regain the initiative in the development of high-end EUV technology. This is undoubtedly a huge challenge for ASML, but it is also about whether its future position in the industry can be maintained.
In general, the rise of Intel and TSMC's "don't buy" attitude have undoubtedly cast a shadow on ASML's current development path. This may not only lead to the impact of ASML's technological monopoly in the field of high-end EUV, but also may trigger drastic changes in the entire chip manufacturing industry pattern.
In this situation, ASML must carefully weigh the interests of all parties and find an optimal strategy that can take into account its own development and customer needs. Only in this way will it be possible to get out of the current predicament and regain the initiative in the development of high-end EUV technology.
This will undoubtedly be a major test for ASML. However, if it can successfully deal with it, it is not only expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, but also lead the entire lithography machine industry to open a new chapter.