The price of power batteries has risen by about 15% this year, and some companies have even increased by between 10-30%. In the wave of power battery price increases, which companies will suffer the biggest losses?
Power batteries are currently the cost center of new energy vehicles, with the rise in raw material prices and subsidies further decline, battery cost decline curve, there will also be staged recurrence. How these repetitions affect the entire new energy vehicle market is something we are more concerned about.
Let's start with the power battery market situation in January.
The release of monthly power battery data in January 2022, from the total amount, can get some information like this:
Production in January exceeded 29.7GWh, down 6.2% from 31.6GWh in December, and continued to operate at a high level.
The installed capacity in January was at a high level - 16.2GWh, down 38.3% month-on-month, which was 86.9% year-on-year compared with 2021, indicating that the overall demand is still strong.
After high growth in 2021, how will demand and supply change in 2022? In this article, we first explore where the possible increment of the power battery market in 2022 is, and then look at which companies may be damaged in the battery price increase, and finally look at what we can expect from major power battery suppliers?
The main conclusions are:
The cost of lithium iron rises, and the ternary spread narrows;
Plug-in hybrid power battery demand will continue to fly;
The total number of pure electric power batteries will rise, but the proportion will be reduced to about 70%;
In the wave of rising prices, third-line vehicle companies and third-line battery companies are difficult to stick to because of their small scale;
Sanyuan Ningde dominates; iron and lithium flocks chase deer;
Expected technologies: new material systems; CTC technology; power exchange.
Figure 1 Comparison of china's power battery situation in three years
1
Production inertia drives growth
In January, the overall output of power batteries was 29.7GWh, and the output of ternary batteries was 10.8GWh, accounting for 36.5% of the total output, up 57.9% year-on-year and down 5.4% month-on-month; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18.8GWh, accounting for 63.3% of the total output, up 261.8% year-on-year, and down 6.3% month-on-month.
We can see:
The use is limited to high-end pure electric passenger cars and some plug-in ternary cells, and the proportion is further reduced
With the expansion of lithium iron phosphate, the output has increased to 63.3%, and this proportion has steadily increased
At present, the biggest challenge is that the rapid rise in the price of lithium carbonate has led to an increase in the cost of lithium iron, and the price difference between lithium iron and ternary units is narrowing.
2
Plug-in power battery demand continues to fly
From the month-on-month data of January and January last year, pure electric passenger cars were 19.86 GWh, which was relatively smooth to 12.93 GWh; the demand for plug-in hybrid passenger car power batteries fell slightly from 1.82 GWh to 1.68 GWh; and the corresponding and subsidy-related commercial vehicles, whether special vehicles or buses, have dropped sharply.
The decline in different models and the degree of marketization are inversely proportional, which characterizes the lowest dependence of plug-in hybrids on subsidies and the highest degree of marketization; the pure electric passenger car market is secondary.
From the perspective of demand in 2021, the demand for plug-in hybrid power batteries will continue to take off in 2022, and the cost impact of a price increase of 10% for 10kwh-20kwh PHEV is only 1000-2000 pieces.
Figure 2 Changes in the use of power batteries in China in December 2021 and January 2022
From the perspective of the whole year, in 2021, pure electric passenger cars used 121.73GWh, accounting for 78.7%, and it is expected that in 2022, this part will decrease to about 70% with the growth rate of pure electricity itself, and it is expected to rise to 175-185GWh (45-52% increase) in 2022.
In 2021, pure electric buses, pure e-commerce vehicles and plug-in hybrid passenger cars each have an annual demand of 10-12GWh, and in 2022, this data will be further differentiated, and it is expected that plug-in hybrid will rise to 22.5GWh according to the average 15kWh of electricity estimation, and the demand for 1.5 million vehicles in this market will rise to 22.5GWh.
Figure 3 2022 Power Battery Market, Estimated Changes
3
It is difficult for third-tier companies to stick to it
In January 2022, only 35 power battery companies were left in the new energy vehicle market to achieve vehicle loading (passenger cars and commercial vehicles are also covered here). In January, the top 3, top 5 and top 10 power battery companies loaded 12.7GWh, 14.1 GWh and 15.3GWh respectively, accounting for 78.6%, 87.1% and 94.8% of the total installed vehicles, respectively.
Due to the upstream pressure, we are seeing the contraction of power battery companies, and from now on we may only need to pay attention to the top 20 companies, which is due to the very concentrated demand of car companies.
According to the price increase range, the current strategy of the head company is divided according to the demand, and the larger the demand, the lower the price increase. Battery costs are very unfriendly to small vehicle companies and exacerbate differentiation. In today's situation of upstream material price increases and supply assurance, it is difficult for third-line vehicle companies and third-line battery companies to persist.
(Author's note: It is very difficult to increase the price of power batteries, and it is easier for consumers to increase prices due to the dispersion of customers.) ）
Figure 4 The situation of various suppliers of power batteries in China in January 2022
4
Sanyuan Ningde is dominant, and the iron and lithium groups are chasing deer
From the data point of view, the installed volume of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 7.3GWh and 8.9GWh respectively, up 35.2% and 172.7% year-on-year, and down 34.0% and 41.0% respectively.
In the 7.3GWh of Sanyuan, players have been limited to a limited number, which is basically the only one in the Ningde era, and AVIC is trying to follow. Next, it depends on whether the Fu Neng battery can do the amount in the demand of Mercedes-Benz in 2022, and whether LG New Energy can get some back in Tesla's share.
Figure 5 The actual situation of ternary power batteries
In the 8.9GWh of iron lithium, it is more lively.
The domestic loading volume of the Ningde era is 3.96GWh, BYD is 3.24GWh, Guoxuan Hi-Tech is 0.87GWh, and the follow-up Ewell lithium energy is 0.21GWh. In 2022, AVIC, which has turned to iron lithium, and the hive that fully implements short blade iron lithium, have great opportunities at the technical level of lithium iron phosphate.
(Author's note: This part of Tesla's export, LG and Ningde era account for unknown, probably 2GWh)
Figure 6 China's iron and lithium loading volume in January
As Tesla further expands its own circle of battery suppliers, if the subsequent top iron lithium suppliers enter, it will gradually change the pattern of the iron lithium market. In 2021, it will take time for the model design transformation of iron lithium, and the upstream supply chain of iron lithium is also in short supply. Wait until the second half of 2022, these problems will be gradually solved, and the expanded production of lithium iron will allow second-tier companies to have more opportunities.
05
New technology to look forward to
After talking about the market growth point in 2022, let's take a look at what new things we can expect for the market in 2022.
New chemical system: In the communication between CATL and investment institutions, it was revealed that it was planning to launch a new product, M3P phosphate system, and the cost was lower than that of ternary. From the current point of view, as a strategic product, in various car companies as an alternative to the nickel ternary products in the promotion, will further reduce the amount of traditional ternary batteries.
CTC: At present, it can be divided into the Ningde era to create CTC programs and the CTC concept of various car companies - the former goal is to standardize the drive system and core components, according to Ningde is to accelerate the electrification of products with higher cost performance and lower power consumption, through the professional division of labor between Ningde and car companies, their respective strengths will be played to the extreme to launch competitive products; and for ordinary automobile companies, the CTC that does not master the production of battery cells, the overall significance and the current CTP difference is not large.
Power exchange: With the introduction of the chocolate power exchange program in the Ningde era, coupled with the previous price increase for small car companies with small demand, whether the car companies with smaller volume can make an attempt with this wave of power exchange in the future is the biggest attraction.
06
brief summary
Fortunately, the power battery industry has been in a state of rapid change, and as an observer and participant in value assessment, it is indeed interesting to review these changes and developments every month. See you next month.
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