When analyzing the monthly data, I probably sorted out the data I had, I think that in 2021, lithium iron phosphate will achieve a substantial surpass in output of ternary, and the installed capacity is also the same, and the power battery route will diverge in 2022.
My personal estimate is that according to the overall cost structure, lithium iron phosphate will continue to have an overwhelming advantage in the total domestic, and in passenger cars, it may further rise from about 45% to 70%.
▲Figure 1: The proportion of lithium iron phosphate and ternary in passenger cars
In other words, lithium iron phosphate will cover vehicles below 600 kilometers, and the number of vehicles installed in the A00 class will continue to increase steadily. In terms of the absolute number of vehicles, it may rise to 75% or even 80%.
▲ Figure 2. Lithium iron phosphate and ternary in passenger cars have been higher in passenger cars
Part 1
Applications of lithium iron and ternary in different fields
As shown in the figure below, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in passenger cars in November reached 7.99GWh, and the number of installed vehicles reached 217,400 units; and the corresponding ternary installed capacity was 9.8GWh and 190,000 units, we see that from the perspective of the number of installed vehicles, the number of vehicles was surpassed in August; the surpassing of the installation of Wh in September was then surpassed back (in fact, this is only the difference between Tesla in china and exports), in essence, China's lithium iron phosphate application in the car has completely exceeded the three yuan.
Figure 3. The number of lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries in passenger cars in the past three years
Figure 4.Lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries installed in passenger cars in the past three years Wh
As can be seen to the naked eye, BYD's lithium iron phosphate in rapidly approaching the amount of the Ningde era, in November in lithium iron phosphate:
●Ningde era:
96,000 vehicles installed, 5.7GWh installed (domestic)
●BYD:
82,600 vehicles were installed, with an installed capacity of 3.32 GWh
●Guoxuan Hi-Tech:
32,700 vehicles were installed, with an installed capacity of 935 MWh
AVIC Lithium Battery is also continuing to increase the loading of lithium iron vehicles, loading 7.6K in November, and the installed lithium iron phosphate is 169MWh, and we can indeed see the whole track enter a state of more and more inner coil.
▲Figure 5. The situation of iron lithium from different manufacturers
Different battery companies may make a leap around the 4680 cylindrical route for the ternary route; and lithium iron phosphate has become the area of the frontal battlefield battle, becoming the largest differentiation of several production capacity.
Lithium iron extends around the original VDA size and 590 cell specifications, and the long cylindrical battery cell is suitable for small energy applications.
Long EV blade batteries (1st and 2nd generation) PHEV blade module batteries, All in lithium iron phosphate.
●Guoxuan:
Cylindrical lithium iron phosphate protocol.
●Hive Energy:
Full range of short blade technology routes, L600 EV application L400PHEV application.
●AVIC lithium battery:
One Stop for AVIC Lithium Batteries.
●Ewell Lithium Energy:
Square shell large iron lithium + cylindrical iron lithium.
▲Figure 6: Different packaging forms of lithium iron phosphate by major domestic enterprises
Part 2
The way of walking in the Ningde era
Ningde era because of the bus and commercial vehicles have a good foundation, overall iron lithium in the gradually exceed the amount of three yuan, especially in September tesla in the domestic sales of a large number, in fact, the focus of the Ningde era has begun to gradually turn to iron lithium, in 2021 Ningde era lithium iron phosphate installed capacity of 30.2GWh than the three yuan of 35.7GWh slightly less.
It is expected that next year, the domestic Ningde era of lithium iron phosphate will significantly exceed its own ternary battery, and the entire focus of development has also changed.
▲Figure 7. The installed capacity of iron lithium and ternary in the Ningde era
That is to say, if the battery companies across the country are rolling in lithium iron phosphate and Ningde Big Brother, the survival battle of this low threshold of second-line battery companies is particularly worth looking forward to.
Summary: I think it is a good thing that China has brought out the characteristics of lithium iron phosphate, especially after the use of lamination technology for long and short blades to give full play to the advantages of volume energy density, the iron lithium battle that was not completed before 2017 will continue to be fought in 2022.