On the occasion of the New Year, it is estimated that we are not in a hurry to buy a car, so we have time to retreat. A few days ago, a message asked me: "Do you think there will be any big changes in the automotive industry this year?" ”
Good question. In this issue, I will make bold predictions. Whether there is a reason, whether it is accurate or not, welcome to discuss.
1, queuing for cars to ease, cars are no longer in short supply
The biggest shadow of the car market last year was not the epidemic, but the shortage of chips, especially at the end of the year, hot-selling models are difficult to find. In the new year, with the adjustment of chip manufacturers' production capacity and product proportion, and the major automobile manufacturers have increased their investment and control of upstream chips after last year's crisis, I believe this problem can be solved this year.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also said that the current major global chip companies have gradually increased the production and supply of automotive chips, and new production capacity will be released this year. In addition, this year's [Snail Car Chronicle] also opened up a new program, we will often visit the terminal car market, real-time to inform you of car price fluctuations, preferential markets, and the real situation of out-of-stock, remember to pay attention.
2, car prices are generally rising, and car values return to rationality
With the termination of electric vehicle subsidies, a number of domestic electric vehicles quietly raised prices at the beginning of the year, and BYD has risen across the board, causing heated discussions. Although the increase is not high, after all, in the years of fierce competition in the car market, everyone has almost forgotten the word "price increase".
At the moment when prices are soaring, raw materials are rising, artificial prices are rising, and land prices are rising, only car prices do not rise but fall, in fact, this is very unconventional. On the surface, car buyers have bargained, but in fact, car manufacturers can only save money in cost, quality and process for this vicious price war, and in the end, it is the owner who is damaged.
So, first, I estimate that a slight increase in car prices will be a common market this year; second, I think it is not necessarily a bad thing, compared to the price of the car, it does not pose any pressure on the car buyers, but let the price return to the truth, so that manufacturers can build cars steadily, rather than stealing opportunities, which is also very good.
In addition, the increase in car prices, but also let the market and the public will pay more attention to the price of the car, more rational treatment of the true value and price of the car, in recent years, many rely on speculation, the price of inflated models, especially new energy vehicles, I believe there is always a time to hold back.
3, electric vehicle rationalization, relying on flickering alone will not work
Last year, electric vehicles were not only the hottest topic, but also the market share soared. But on the other hand, we have also seen the double heaven of ice and fire, some of which are full of money and are in short supply, and there are also those who have a door and a bird and have dismal sales. With the education and guidance of the market in recent years, car buyers have more and more understanding of electric vehicles, and car buyers will inevitably become more and more rational.
Before relying solely on endurance and starting acceleration of two data, beautiful shell, cool city exhibition hall, plus a bunch of flickering copywriting can deceive a group of mice routines, will gradually not work; for electric vehicles, a new wave of car buyers will not only see it as a novel big toy, they will also treat fuel vehicles as expert, harsh to choose and judge, so or build a good car, don't fool it.
4. The new forces have reshuffled their cards, and the entry threshold is getting higher and higher
With the gradual rationalization of electric vehicle consumption, the new forces that started with electric vehicles are bound to face more stringent tests and reshuffles in the new year. In fact, I have been very disgusted with the word "new force" for all these years. Because the requirements and demands of car buyers and buyers for cars have never changed, whether you are a traditional brand or a "new force", everyone has always wanted a reliable car that can meet their own needs, right?
After several years, I believe that everyone's freshness and package capacity for the "new forces" have almost been exhausted, so I sincerely hope that in the car market after that, there will be no distinction between traditional brands and "new forces", only good cars and bad cars, right.
5. Traditional car brands have fought back strongly and regained lost ground
Last year's chip crisis was most affected by the traditional big car brands with rich product lines and large output, tired of coping with the shortage of production capacity, and also seriously delayed their layout and new car rhythm in the past year; but at the Guangzhou Auto Show at the end of last year, we still saw the beginning of a large number of heavyweight new cars.
And these cars will enter the market this year; especially in the layout of new energy, the new forces' rush advantage is gradually dissolved, and the final competition is still strength, so this year I believe that there are more and more active new cars, which are likely to be the brands you are familiar with, and I also believe that they have the ability to regain the position lost in the past two years, see if I am accurate.
6, the return of the fuel performance car, the roar of high horsepower is still exciting
Before the BMW M240i was introduced into China, it was already frantically brushing the screen, revealing the love of car lovers for large-displacement performance cars and the lack of desire for such new cars in recent years. The car has never been just a means of transportation to work and buy groceries, it is also a hobby, a speed machine that can give people infinite pleasure. And for people who really love cars and understand cars, although electric vehicles start quickly, they can never give you the excitement and mechanical beauty of large-displacement performance cars.
Although in recent years, there have not been many new fuel performance vehicles, almost every one of them is very topical, and sales are not weak. For example, Toyota's new generation of Supra has been difficult to find. This year, there will be a lot of exciting performance cars in the queue, such as Audi S3, Honda TYPE-R, Toyota GR Yaris, etc., what they have in common is that there is a history and a story, there is a strong performance, and there is a price that people can get, are you impressed?
7, PHEV plug and mix continue to strengthen, and gradually become a replacement for traditional fuel vehicles
In last year's new car, although the heat and topicality are not as good as electric vehicles, I think the new generation of PHEV plug-in hybrids is more amazing from the product point of view. First of all, they have broken the technical bottles with short pure electric endurance and high fuel consumption. Pure electric mileage has reached the level of 100 kilometers, easily meet the daily urban commuting; the fuel consumption of the lost electricity has also reached about 5 liters, and you are more fuel-efficient than the traditional fuel vehicles at all; in addition, what is more powerful is that the price difference between them and the traditional fuel vehicles is also significantly reduced, and has reached a price point that is completely acceptable to the buyer;
I have never believed that electric vehicles will be the replacement and gravedigger of fuel vehicles; I believe that PHEV plug-in is the main force that has the potential to become the main force of the future market, traditional fuel vehicles will not die, they are just evolved, PHEV plug-in is the ultimate form, do you agree?
8, new brands and new faces are still emerging
In recent years, a phenomenon in the domestic car market is that new brands continue to enter the circle. Many unfamiliar car logos are not even known to old drivers. In the new year, there will still be new faces joining. On the one hand, it comes from powerful crossovers, such as Xiaomi's car, Huawei's car, Sony's car, etc., which were hot at the end of last year;
On the other hand, it is actually more of a rift in the traditional car camp; for different car buyers who are more and more concerned about personalization, especially young people, the traditional manufacturers will launch a large number of new brands; just like the previous Euler, tanks, and EAN, the effect is good. Think about what else will be this year? Sharon, Zhiji, Extraordinary, BYD Ocean Series, etc., I believe it will be very lively.
9, the charging bottleneck must be solved, high voltage fast charging and power exchange who is the direction?
With the entry of 700-kilometer-class endurance electric vehicles into the market, the mileage anxiety of electric vehicle users is no longer the endurance used daily in the city, but the convenience and speed of charging when you cross the city. Therefore, if electric vehicles want to further encroach on the market of traditional cars, charging is the bottleneck. On the one hand, the charging network must be perfect, and the network density and convenience between cities below the second line and between cities must be strengthened;
On the other hand, technology must also break through and truly achieve fast charging as refueling as fast as refueling. At present, there are two mainstream directions. One is a super power fast charging pile, at present I have seen more than 450KW charging pile can actually be charged for 5 minutes, the endurance of nearly 200 kilometers, not much slower than refueling, but the cost is very high, and the current domestic existing power grid may not be able to bear.
The other is to change the battery mode, the advantage is that you can use the low peak slow charge, more in line with the current domestic electricity situation, the impact on the power supply network is also small, but there are also disadvantages, one is inevitably more batteries for circulation, increasing the cost of batteries and the risk of battery pollution, the second is that there is no way to standardize, different cars can not be universal, popularization is more difficult; so which way are you optimistic?
10, the new technology sinks rapidly, and cheap cars can also have intelligence on the tall
For the current car buyers, it is very fortunate to be in the era of great changes in automotive products and the fastest technology upgrading. Although many people on the Internet scolded the manufacturer for "cutting leeks", this is not because the car upgrade is too fast and the progress is too fast.
More importantly, the advancement of automotive technology in recent years has shifted from the traditional internal combustion engine and mechanical fields to the field of electronics and intelligence. In this regard, our domestic enterprises have technical advantages, and the cost is mainly in the research and development link, but after mass production, it is easy for the price to sink and quickly popularize.
For example, just over a year ago, it was also advertised as the L2-level intelligent driving and large central control screen of the future black technology, you see, isn't it now even hundreds of thousands of "grocery shopping cars" that have begun to be equipped as standard? At the beginning of the year, I was most impressed by the electronic control of the automatic change of transparency of the LCD sunroof, this technology I remember many years ago in the Maybach this 2 million + level car only saw, and is not the standard, now even 200,000 cars also have, I believe that soon there will be more and more new cars with this equipment.
So, what are the new technologies and new configurations you'd most like to come standard with this year? Leave a message to talk about it.