On February 2, Panasonic Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda said at the company's quarterly earnings meeting that Panasonic will start trial production of 4680 batteries at its Wakayama Prefecture plant near Panasonic Osaka headquarters early this year, but the other party did not disclose the specific time and location of mass production.
"After various tests, we will install a new 4680 battery mass production line, possibly also in Wakayama Prefecture." Umeda said that once the 4680 battery can be delivered, Panasonic will give priority to Tesla first.
According to the Analysis of the Japan Times, the reason why Panasonic set up a 4680 production line in Japan is that it is difficult to expand production at the Gigafactory factory in Nevada, which is jointly operated by Panasonic and Tesla, and the production base is close to Panasonic Osaka headquarters, which is convenient for sending engineers to fine-tune its machines.
As early as January this year, Nikkei reported that Panasonic plans to invest about 80 billion yen (about $700 million) in Japan to produce 4680 batteries, with an annual output of about 10GWh, which is equivalent to powering 150,000 cars per year.
The 4680 battery was first unveiled on Tesla's Battery Day in September 2020, when Tesla CEO Elon Musk called a "huge breakthrough" in battery technology. According to him, the single energy of the 4680 battery cell is increased by 5 times, the mileage of the vehicle is increased by 16%, the electricity is increased by 6 times compared with the polar ear battery, and the power output is increased by 6 times.
For the 4680, which has high hopes, although Tesla has given priority to Panasonic, which has worked closely together, there is still great uncertainty about whether it can ensure that it will be supplied by its own family in the future. Panasonic, which hopes to make a comeback with 4680 batteries, is also trying to expand its first-mover advantage and plans to sell 4680 batteries to electric vehicle companies other than Tesla.
Ideal plump, mass-produced bone feeling
From promoting the mass production of Cyberteruck to reducing costs and achieving scale advantages, Tesla's urgent need for 4680 batteries is beyond doubt. Musk had predicted that electric vehicles equipped with this battery might be launched by 2022. However, the actual situation is that after many ticket jumps, people's attitudes have gradually returned from excitement to rationality.
For the 4680 battery, which has not been able to achieve mass production on the car, the biggest difficulty is to achieve large-scale manufacturing and improve the yield rate.
"The process optimization of the 4680 battery has been carried out for a long time, and even if the current yield rate is not up to standard, it is necessary to promote the landing of the 4680 in 2022." An automotive electronics industry practitioner said.
The 4680 large cylindrical battery adopts a non-polar ear design, which is larger in size and energy density. However, the larger capacity means that the production difficulty is increased, because the battery is too large, it is difficult to dissipate heat from the center, which also leads to the battery prone to safety problems. In addition, due to the adjustment involving processes, materials and production lines, the initial product yield was only about 20%.
"The 4680 battery is also more susceptible to particle contamination, which is a common cause of electric vehicle fires, which can cause the battery to short circuit when tiny metal fragments enter the center of the battery." Yasuaki Takamoto, head of Batteries for Electric Vehicles at Panasonic, previously said in an interview that for safety reasons, the factory's process needs to be upgraded by one or two levels to produce these larger batteries.
Electrodeless ear battery Source: Tesla
Tesla also did not fully solve the yield problem. Musk has admitted that while Tesla was able to produce in the lab, "the process of scaling up production in the factory is much more difficult than in the lab."
In order to improve yield rates, Tesla has sought a cooperative manufacturer of 4680 large cylindrical batteries around the world. In addition to Panasonic, South Korea's LG Energy, Samsung SDI, and domestic power battery companies are accelerating the layout of the battery.
36Kr has quoted sources in relevant reports that the large cylindrical battery in the Ningde era is also speeding up the pace, the project name is called "golden hoop stick", and the large cylindrical battery company negotiated with Tesla also includes Ewell Lithium Energy.
At the end of 2021, Panasonic and Sony announced that the yield rate of the 4680 battery has increased from the previous 20% to 80%, which may also be the basis for Panasonic to claim to achieve trial production this year. However, even so, in order to achieve large-scale production, it is still necessary to continuously improve its yield rate.
On January 27, Musk said on Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call that Tesla is already using 4680 batteries to make Model Y. "We will start delivering the vehicle after it has passed the final certification, which should be soon."
Drew Baglino, Tesla's senior vice president of engineering, also validated this statement, "The supply of 4680 batteries will not be limited this year, and the first Model Y with 4680 batteries is expected to be delivered by the end of the first quarter of 2022." He revealed that Tesla's Texas plant will be its first factory to fully produce 4680 batteries, with an annual production capacity of several times that of the Fremont plant, which is expected to have a capacity of more than 100GWh.
Is the 4680 battery still worth the cheers of the crowd?
Compared with the previous 21700 battery, the 4680 battery has a wider diameter and higher height. According to the capacity calculation of 75KWh, the 18650 battery requires 7100 batteries, the 2170 cylinder requires about 4400, and the 4680 battery only needs 950.
Fewer cells mean higher utilization of PACK designs, which also means an impact on productivity gains and cost reductions. The above-mentioned automotive electronics industry practitioners said that from the ideal Pack design, the 4680 battery cell can reduce the cost of the battery platform by 50%-60%. This also makes the outside world regard the 4680 battery as the key to Tesla's price reduction again.
From the perspective of the choice of battery technology routes by various car companies, Tesla is one of the few car companies that use cylindrical power batteries on a large scale, such as Daimler, Nissan and other car companies mainly use soft pack batteries, and most domestic car companies choose to use square batteries.
The reason why the 4680 battery can become the direction of the industry's bet is mainly due to the improvement of cost, performance and efficiency.
At present, Porsche, Volkswagen, and JAC have clearly stated that they will apply large cylindrical batteries, and domestic battery companies such as BAK, Lishen, Ewell Lithium Energy and Hive Energy are also following up the research and development of large cylindrical batteries, including 4680.
A solid-state battery car company executive told Future Automotive Daily that large cylindrical batteries can improve the assembly efficiency of electric vehicles, speed can be increased by 20% or 30%, saving time is saving costs.
When "Ning Wang" is dominant in the field of power batteries, the second-line players who cannot shake its status have focused their eyes on the 4680 cylindrical battery that has not yet been determined.
"The power performance of high-nickel cylindrical 21700 batteries and blade batteries is poor, and the safety of high-nickel square soft pack batteries is at risk." Qin Liwei, deputy technical director of the Battery System Department of Jianghuai Automobile New Energy Automobile Research Institute, believes that the full-pole ear high-nickel cylindrical 4680 battery can fully take into account energy density, safety and power performance.
He revealed that at present, Jianghuai Automobile is planning based on the new platform of the 46 series, and will develop 4680/46105 series batteries in the future and realize the whole package of CTP.
BAK 4680 large cylindrical battery Source: BAK battery
LIN Jian, chief scientist of BAK, also said that BAK is working with customers to develop the application of full-pole ear large cylindrical batteries, and the 4680 battery is expected to start mass production in 2023 and take the lead in the tram market.
In terms of large cylindrical batteries, Ewell Lithium energy has laid out two major models of 46800 and 46950, and plans to gradually promote large cylindrical batteries to the market after 2023.
Judging from the current mass production time given by each company, when Tesla and Panasonic are mass-produced, other players in the industry will also open a new round of competition. However, for Panasonic at present, whether it can become the exclusive supply of Tesla's "top" customer on the 4680 battery is of great significance.
Panasonic Chief Financial Officer and CFO Hirokazu Umeda once explained that the reason why the battery division was able to achieve profitability in fiscal 2020 is closely related to the positive net profit of Tesla's related businesses. From the initial use as Tesla's only power battery supplier, to gradually losing market share and falling behind, the 4680 battery is also considered a sharp weapon for Panasonic's comeback.
But not everyone sees innovation as a "panacea." "The Tesla 4680 battery is a good package, but it is not a breakthrough in chemistry." Peter Rawlinson, CEO of Lucid, a new CAR company in the United States, once bluntly said, "Calling Tesla's 4680 battery a breakthrough is a fantasy." ”
Pierre Ferragu, an analyst at New Street Research, has expressed the same view, saying that the 4680 battery has nothing to do with Tesla's long-term success, and other automakers can do the same, "this battery will not help Tesla stand out from the competition in the long run."
Tesla is scheduled to achieve its goal of delivering 20 million vehicles by 2030. With the 4680 battery, can Tesla achieve its ambitious goals?
The author | Qin Zhangyong
Edit the | Wang Yan