(Report Producer/Author: Soochow Securities, Huang Xili)
Summary of core conclusions
Who is currently consuming new energy vehicles? Household purchases from 1985 to 1995 were increased.
Before 2020, consumption is mainly driven by B-end operation and limited license city license factors, and in 2020, Tesla Model 3/Hongguang mini/Euler Black Cat/Ideal ONE and 2021 Model Y/BYD DM-i and other star models have appeared successively, focusing on different market segments to 1985~1995 birth population family purchase and partial purchase consumption, and distinguishing different genders/ages and use scenario needs by factors of concern such as product space + appearance + endurance. The consumption of new energy vehicles has changed from policy-driven to market-driven, and the penetration rate will increase by leaps and bounds to about 15% by 2021.
Rhythm: Will the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continue to increase from 2022 to 2025? There is a high probability that it will replicate the path of high growth of SUVs.
1) Demand side: Population size + 25-30 years old to start a family + 6-8 years old car replacement cycle Core determines that 2022-2025 will be a concentrated period of new energy vehicle consumption. Review the history of sedan + SUV: the first purchase of sedans after 60/70 is the mainstay, and the SUV is purchased after 70 and the first purchase after 80. The 400 million people born in 1980-2000 + the first purchase after 90 + the increase in demand for car buyers in 2012-2017 will drive the penetration rate of this round of new energy vehicles [with the first purchase after 85, the first purchase after 90 to take over].
2) Supply side: with cars/SUVs, each round has a leading brand to launch the iconic products of each price band, following the brand will promote the richness of supply. New energy vehicles with Tesla as the leading brand, new forces - traditional car companies - mobile phones and other tripartite cars have entered the market, 2022-2025 will usher in the most concentrated period of new product listing.
Peak: Will the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceed 50% in 2025? High probability will! The development process of smart phones is of greater significance.
1) Changes in the quality of product experience are the core reasons. Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have undergone essential changes in technology (independent operating system + three-party software access + independent development) and product experience (smooth software and hardware + multimedia entertainment functions + accelerated driving control).
2) The energy strategy has forced fuel vehicles to withdraw from the historical stage. With the tightening of the double integration policy + carbon neutrality target measures continuously landing, new energy vehicles have completely replaced fuel vehicles to achieve the national energy strategic goal. We believe that the peak penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 50% of SUVs, and may be able to achieve it in 2025 (the core looks at the rhythm of technological progress).
Total: Will China's passenger car sales exceed a historical peak in 2025? High probability will! The pent-up demand for car purchases is expected to be released in a concentrated manner.
1) The relationship between GDP and peaks. Reviewing the history of Japanese and American passenger cars, the birth rate + consumer concept is the underlying driving force of automobile consumption, and the peak of automobile consumption in a country is often accompanied by GDP entering the zero growth stage, and the resilience of China's economic growth still exists.
2) Each round of peak occurrence is a centralized release of suppressed demand in stages. Domestic passenger cars have entered a downward period since 2017 and bottomed out in 2020Q3, but due to the outbreak of the global epidemic, the economic slowdown has been brought about, coupled with the supply side (especially the shortage of chips), the pace of recovery in this round of passenger car demand has been continuously delayed, and demand has been suppressed. We expect that 2023-2025 may usher in a concentrated release of demand.
2022 is a critical moment to carry forward the upper and lower levels, the first half of the year can not ignore the impact of price increases on demand wait-and-see, the second half of the year to pay attention to the supply & demand of the positive cycle of the opening of the explosive force. The vehicle and supply chain sector opportunities bloom at multiple points and there will be good buying points.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021-2030 is deduced
Users born between 1985 and 2000 are the main consumers of new energy vehicles, showing the characteristics of "the main population is younger & the age coverage is extensive".
Excerpts from the report:
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].