1
At the end of 2021, he wrote an article "City Fortune, Who Decides".
They mainly talked about the rise and fall of China's cities in the past 30 years and their connection with industries.
The response was good.
At the end of the article, there is a tail left - except for the north, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and half of the body has been squeezed into the front line of Hangzhou and Nanjing.
China's most important second-tier cities, including but not limited to: Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Changsha, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Tianjin, Xi'an, Jinan, Dalian, Shijiazhuang, Shenyang, etc., can not overtake in curves, how to overtake in curves.
Today, we talk about this from the industry side.
2
Speaking of industry, let's first clarify a concept - the industrial smile curve.
The horizontal axis in the above figure represents the front and back links of the industrial chain, research and development, parts production, parts assembly, marketing and follow-up services
The vertical axis represents the level of profit obtained by this industrial link.
The vast majority of the world's high-profit industrial chains follow such a law.
The link profit is distributed according to the "smile" arc, and the front and back ends (R&D + marketing + customer service) are higher, while the middle part of the industrial chain is lower. To put it bluntly, the production link is not worth much, and the research and development and marketing links make a lot of money.
Taking Apple's mobile phone as an example, the most profitable is the US headquarters, which is in charge of research and development.
The second most profitable are parts suppliers in Apple's supply chain, such as display screens and lens module companies, and the hardest but least profitable are Foxconn's assembly plants across the mainland.
3
The smile curve of the industrial chain is crucial, because the position of the city in the industrial chain directly determines the wealthiness of the city and region. And almost all Chinese cities follow this rule.
The first gear: the head city of the high-profit industry.
They control the headquarters companies, research and development and brands of these industrial chains in China, such as a Shenzhen that has given birth to several high-tech companies such as Huawei, Tencent, and DJI. Why Hangzhou is on a par with it, because Hangzhou has an Ali and NetEase, and Ali is the most successful Internet company in China.
The second gear: manufacturing and assembly cities in high-profit industries.
Generally, non-first-tier cities in these super-urban metropolitan areas, such as Dongguan, foshan, and Zhuhai, are responsible for the production and assembly of parts in these industrial chains.
Third gear: Raw materials and energy cities.
Their main responsibility is to provide energy and raw materials, such as coal in northeast Shanxi, cotton in Xinjiang and electricity in the southwest.
So let's answer the question that we asked in the title.
——Late-haired big cities, if you want to overtake in a curve, which road above should you choose the most?
The third can generally be abandoned, which requires natural resources and conditions, and many cities in China's category are already in trouble.
Can be abandoned.
Do you have to take the first road, step in place, and quickly overtake?
Or take the second way, first work for the first-tier cities, iterative evolution.
The choice of urban roads comes from the comparative advantages of urban industrial elements.
Generally speaking, urban industrial elements are divided into seven items:
First, the advantage of land cost
Second, energy cost advantages
Third, the advantage of capital cost
Fourth, the cost advantage of the system
Fifth, logistics cost advantages
Sixth, the advantages of high-end talents
Seventh, environmental protection advantages
Eighth, the advantages of ordinary labor costs
Below, we analyze them one by one:
1. Land cost advantage:
This late-developing city has advantages, and the first-mover cities generally lack land, such as Shenzhen, but the advantages are not large. I have walked through more than half of the country's large cities, and it is rare to see industrial parks that cannot accommodate industries, and more are empty industrial parks and insufficient investment.
2. Energy advantages:
The continent's energy future is in the west, so late-haired cities that were inland in the early stage have a slight advantage because they are closer to the west. However, with the popularization of high-speed truckload railways on the mainland and the maturity of high-voltage transmission and transformation technology, the national energy price will gradually flatten, and this advantage will become smaller and smaller.
3. Capital advantages:
This is not much to say, the advantage of the first-mover cities is great, because most of the country's capital and financial institutions are in those major cities.
4. System cost advantage:
This can be explained as a business environment, and frankly, this is much bigger than the latecomer advantage, because it depends on cultivating a service-minded government, which is a slow work in that place.
5. Logistics cost advantage:
This first-mover city has greater advantages, because now all the people's flows and logistics networks are around the construction of the main cities in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and only a few central cities such as Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, and Chengdu in the interior are fine.
6. Advantages of high-end talents:
This is definitely the advantage of the first-mover city, because people can pay higher wages, and these first-mover cities themselves are generally the advantages of higher education.
7. Advantages of environmental protection:
The advantages of this late-developing city are larger, and now the first-mover cities have not allowed these industries to exchange the environment for profits, but the late-developing cities can still do some, but with the popularization of the national strategy of green mountains and green waters, this advantage will become less and less.
Finally, there is the cost of ordinary labor.
To be honest, this is the biggest advantage of the late-developing cities, which cannot be replaced in the short term.
After all, the first cities are generally large population cities, large labor cities, large cities with transferred populations, and large cities for young people.
The basic characteristics of the labor force, low wages, low housing prices, and low level of education are its basic characteristics.
For individuals, this is a tragedy, but for the city this is an advantage, an incomparable advantage of a first-mover city, and the biggest advantage of a late-mover city.
The best use of this advantage is to first introduce the low-profit processing link of the high value-added industrial chain.
Because, this kind of link, just take advantage of the late-developing cities, low land costs, cheap energy and ordinary labor costs.
However, the biggest problem in this link is "can only get rid of poverty, can not get rich", workers' wages are generally not high, but this is also no way to do things, after all, your chips are too small, playing cards on the table can only start from the dirty work of hard work and tired work that does not make money.
4
If, like me, you read the government reports of China's top 50 cities.
You will find that in fact, the direction of industrial upgrading in most of China's cities has fallen into a red sea.
Among them, one-third of the cities should strive to build their own "chip" industry, two-thirds of the cities should build their own "e-commerce" or "Internet" leading enterprises, and the other half of the cities should create new energy vehicles themselves.
Even in the four cutting-edge industries of big (data) + intelligence (artificial intelligence) + mobile (mobile Internet) + cloud (cloud computing) that have not yet had successful cases in China, each track must also squeeze in a lot of players.
However, most post-hair cities ignore a law, that is, if a city wants to complete the upgrading of its own industrial chain, it must "upgrade from easy to difficult, iterative upgrading".
For example, Shenzhen, in the early stage is to Hong Kong, Japan and other countries to do OEM, do socks, do shirts, this kind of low-end things to do more, and then produce small fans, small motors and other low-end electrical appliances, and then start to do telephones, do program computers and other complex machinery, and then do their own independent brand, their own independent research and development capabilities, with Huawei, with Tencent, has become China's famous innovation capital.
Moreover, Huawei started as a sales agent for a Hong Kong company that produces user switches (PBX), and Tencent started as a pager, bP machine, and then product iteration, product innovation, and the formation of a worldwide company.
Further to say, in the world, the whole of China, industrial upgrading is also a process of first being a grandson and then a grandfather.
Because, you can only start from the most unprofitable assembly, can you have a starting point, can you start climbing the science and technology tree, can you climb higher than the industrial chain, and can you gradually create your own research and development capabilities and brands.
For example, our current mobile phone industry has the world's strong competitiveness, the world's top ten brands, we occupy half.
And how is this ability cultivated?
It is nothing more than that from Motorola, Nokia, to later Samsung, Apple, constantly relocating their own assembly plants and their own industrial chain companies to China, we have accumulated experience in this process, accumulated talents, and finally had their own millet, their own OPPO, their own vivo, and only then did they have the back of China's mobile phones.
Not only mobile phones, but also several major industries in China, white goods around 2000, high-speed rail technology and photovoltaic technology after 2010, almost all of them are this path.
5
When, this low-end industrial chain can be upgraded and can create its own brand.
Often a place, in a certain industrial chain, has accumulated a huge aggregation effect and talent reserves.
For example, now Chongqing not only brings together most of the notebook brands at home and abroad, such as HP, Acer and Lenovo, but also brings together foxconn, Quanta, Inventec, Pegatron, Compal, Wistron six foundries.
More importantly, in Chongqing notebooks, more than 80% of the components have been manufactured locally.
In addition, 70% of the front-line skilled workers of these manufacturers, more than half of the management posts, have achieved local employment and residence in Chongqing.
It can be said that whether it is the production chain, skilled workers, or technology, it has achieved a high share of "Made in Chongqing".
In 2017, the output of notebooks produced in Chongqing has accounted for 40% of the world's volume, and has become the world's largest notebook computer production base.
At this time, in Chongqing, you can conditionally create a notebook brand of your own, open the market with cost performance, and eat the more lucrative profits of "research and development" and "marketing" in this industrial chain, becoming another notebook brand of "millet".
6
However, such successful cases of industrial chain transfer are rare in China.
More Chinese post-hair cities generally fall into two types of misunderstandings.
First, Chengdu misunderstanding.
Photo: Chengdu Hammer Headquarters
Spend money to acquire brands, such as Chengdu smashed hundreds of millions of yuan to invest in the hammer, very much hope to complete a breakthrough in the mobile Internet industry through acquisition, but this stone eventually hit the water.
Second, Zhengzhou misunderstanding
Although Zhengzhou Foxconn has landed in Zhengzhou Port District, the number of Apple mobile phones produced by the port area every year is leading the world. However, in the port area, for nearly a decade, it has only been a foundry, and there is no company that can gather more Apple industry chains, such as camera modules, such as circuit boards, such as screens, which do not have the conditions for industrial upgrading, let alone the conditions for creating their own brands and research and development.
Again, this kind of industrial structure can only get rid of poverty, not get rich.
However, the above two cases are still good, after all, the local government has taken the first step, and more places are still stuck in the planning of self-created high-tech industries and industrial upgrading every year.
You know, only by making the greatest use of the advantages of low-end labor, starting from low-end assembly and low-end parts manufacturing, accumulating advantages, accumulating talents, accumulating experience, patiently climbing the science and technology tree step by step, and iterative upgrading, is the right way.
To be honest, before this article, I was ready to be scolded, after all, all city friends hope that their city will catch up with Shanghai today and surpass Shenzhen tomorrow. But ask yourself, can you really?
In the case of China's industrial track solidifying day by day, it is too difficult, rather than this, it is better to "be a grandson first, and then be a grandfather", step by step, after all, our great China has been such a development path for forty years.
The Mi House video number is open!
Financial knowledge, city selection, macro analysis, wonderful!
There are also a lot of dry goods live waiting for you!