2022 is considered the first year of the hybrid car outbreak.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation and other three departments adjusted the technical requirements for energy-saving and new energy vehicle products that enjoy preferential vehicle and vessel tax. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, said that the adjustment of this policy is a relatively smooth adjustment for the new energy vehicle market.
It is worth noting that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the adjustment of the technical requirements for energy-saving and new energy vehicle products that enjoy vehicle and vessel tax concessions combined with the release and implementation of standards such as the "Technical Conditions for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Passenger Vehicles" (GB/T 32694-2021), and adjusted the relevant technical requirements for plug-in hybrid (including extended range) passenger cars. Some people in the industry believe that the adjustment of this policy is a further favorable policy for the hybrid market; Western Securities analysis said that multiple policies form a resonance, and the hybrid market ushers in new opportunities.
The east wind of policy has spawned a market outlet,
Hybrid markets welcome new opportunities
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments to adjust the technical requirements for new energy vehicle products that enjoy vehicle and vessel tax incentives, mainly adjusting the relevant technical requirements for plug-in hybrid (including range extender) passenger cars, requiring that the pure electric mileage of plug-in hybrid (including extended range) passenger cars should meet the conditional equivalent full electric mileage of not less than 43 kilometers; the fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid (including extended range) passenger car power retention mode test (excluding fuel consumption of electric energy conversion) and the "Passenger Car Fuel Consumption Limit" (GB 19578-2021) the corresponding fuel consumption limit of the model should be less than 70%; the power consumption of the power consumption mode test should be less than 135% of the target value of electric energy consumption. According to the different quality of maintenance (m, kg), the target value (Y) of the electric energy consumption of 100 kilometers should meet the m≤1000, Y = 0.0112×m + 0.4; 10001600, Y = 0.0048×m + 8.60.
In 2018, Cai Shui [2018] No. 74, the ratio of the comprehensive fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles to the corresponding target value in the current national standard for conventional fuel consumption is treated differently according to the different mileage. Cui Dongshu believes that the adjustment of the vehicle and vessel tax policy will not have a greater impact on the overall sales of new energy vehicles, but it is an encouragement for the development of new energy vehicles. The industry believes that the significance of policy guidance is more obvious and more conducive to the development of hybrid routes.
The industry generally believes that 2022 is expected to become the first year of the outbreak of the hybrid route. In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will continue to decline, and the slope will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021; Dongxing Securities predicts that according to the new subsidy scheme, pure electric vehicles with a range of 300-400 kilometers and more than 400 kilometers will be subsidized by 3900 and 5400 yuan in 2022 compared with 2021, respectively, while the subsidy for plug-in hybrid vehicles will be reduced by 2000 yuan. From the data point of view, hybrid vehicles are less affected by the subsidy decline.
In addition, from the perspective of the double integration policy, in June 2020, the new regulations on double integration "Decision on Amending the Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits" pushed hybrid vehicles; for example, the calculation method of new energy passenger car points was modified, and the pure electric points of the same mileage were reduced by 50%, and the plug-in hybrid points were reduced by 20%.
Western Securities analysis said that assuming that the traditional energy vehicle production of A car company is 1 million, if the proportion of hybrid vehicles can achieve 50% of the indicators in 2025, then the new energy credit requirements in 2021-2023 will be reduced by 35,000, 56,000 and 72,000 points respectively, corresponding to the production requirements of related pure electric vehicles will be reduced by 25%, 35% and 40% respectively, so the inclusion of hybrid vehicles in the double integration accounting standard will encourage car companies to produce hybrid vehicles to achieve the double integration goal.
In fact, the "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" released in 2020 is considered to be the turning point of the policy benefit of hybrid models; further strengthening the importance of the hybrid market, which mentions that new hybrid passenger cars will account for 50% of traditional energy passenger car sales in 2025, 75% in 2030, and 100% in 2035. In addition, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" mentions the need to deepen the R&D layout of three verticals and three horizontals, of which the three vertical refers to pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. Western Securities said that if the policy promotion goes smoothly, hybridization will become the main theme of "energy-saving cars" for a long time.
Independent brands will go down to the "scuffle",
The market outbreak momentum appeared
In 2021, the new energy vehicle market grew rapidly, and data from the China Automobile Association showed that the sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.521 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year; it is worth mentioning that the overall growth rate of plug-in hybrid passenger cars also achieved an increase of more than 1.3 times; among them, the growth rate of plug-in hybrid passenger cars in December last year was higher than that of pure electric vehicles, an increase of 1.62 times year-on-year.
According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, in 2021, there were 2.444 million pure electric vehicles in the retail end of new energy vehicles, an increase of 168.6%; the sales of plug-in hybrid models, including range extensions, reached 545,000 units, an increase of 171.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was slightly higher than that of pure electric vehicles; not only that, the share of plug-in hybrid vehicles has been increasing, and the data of the Association shows that plug-in hybrids accounted for 15.9% of the overall share of new energy vehicles in December 2020, and by November 2021, The share of plug-in hybrid models sales has increased to 19.9%.
From the performance of car companies, the cumulative sales of BYD new energy vehicles in 2021 593745, of which 272935 are plug-in hybrid models, DM hybrid models account for 45% of BYD's annual new energy vehicle sales; according to byddir disclosed by BYD in the investor conference call, the sales of plug-in hybrid models in 2022 are planned to reach 500,000-600,000 vehicles, accounting for half of the total sales. In 2021, Ideal Cars also achieved 90,500 deliveries with only one range-extender hybrid model, the Ideal ONE.
The industry believes that compared with pure electric vehicles, the use experience of hybrid models is closer to that of traditional fuel vehicles, such as the need to replenish gasoline fuel regularly, no need to rely on special charging devices, and the acceleration and deceleration are more stable. Because hybrid models are less dependent on battery capacity, they can save relatively high battery configuration costs.
However, at present, the hybrid market is still mainly "monopolized" by Toyota and Honda, with the clarity of the market prospects and the blessing of the policy Dongfeng, independent brands including BYD have also laid out the hybrid market and launched their own new generation of hybrid systems.
For example, BYD released DM-i super hybrid; Great Wall Motor's new lemon DHT system, its WEY brand will take the lead in achieving full hybridization; Geely Automobile released a new Raytheon hybrid system; Changan Automobile released the Blue Whale iDD hybrid system; Chery Automobile launched the Chery Kunpeng DHT system, and GAC directly undertook Toyota's THS hybrid technology. According to the planning of BYD, WEY, Haval, Geely, Lynk & Co, Changan and other car companies, there will be about 20 hybrid models on the market in 2022.
However, in the hybrid market, japanese two fields still occupy the main market share, but the industry believes that with the research and development investment of independent brands, the iterative development of hybrid technology, and the gradual layout of joint venture brands, the competition in the hybrid market will be more intense in 2022.
Tianfeng Securities said that due to the long period of fully realizing pure electrification, and the multiple restrictions on fuel vehicle emissions and energy consumption of policies and regulations are becoming increasingly stringent, hybrid models will gradually become the main force of the market in a certain period of time; among them, independent brands are expected to increase the proportion of the hybrid market and reshape the market pattern.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, said that the price of plug-in hybrid models is not much higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, but the fuel consumption is reduced very obviously, so it is still very competitive in the market, and the market as a whole also has a lot of room for improvement. Guotai Junan analysis believes that the new generation of hybrid system represented by BYD DMI solves the core shortcomings of the power deficit state that is more expensive than oil vehicles compared with the previous generation of hybrid products, the new generation of hybrid products has been significantly improved, and the industry outbreak under the policy and supply and demand catalyst is imminent; on the demand side, hybrid can solve the pain points of pure electricity use and can achieve a high-level intelligent experience that fuel vehicles cannot provide, and the current point of time hybrid industry is about to erupt.
Written | Beijing News shell financial reporter Wang Linlin
Edit | Xu Chao
![In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles was released, which was 30% lower than last year.[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)