——The following is excerpted from "Seven Questions and Seven Answers to Automotive Chips: Traditional to Intelligent Change, Value to Growth Revaluation", has been uploaded [Semiconductor Industry Research] Knowledge Planet, members can log on to the planet to search for keywords to download (at the end of the article to see how to become a planet member).
1. Why have automotive chips become a new driving force in the semiconductor industry?
Driven by intelligence, the automotive industry is expected to achieve industrial transformation and upgrading, and accelerate into a new era of interconnection of all things + intelligent connection of all things. At present, consumer electronics has entered the era of intelligence one step ahead of others, and automobiles are facing intelligent industrial upgrading, and the overall process can be compared to functional machines to intelligent machines. The policy side benefits from the promotion of carbon neutrality, and the wave of electrification is repeated, and it is optimistic about the rapid rise of new energy vehicles. Automotive intelligence + electrification drives the upgrading of the overall industrial value chain composition, automotive chip content + importance is doubled, it is expected that automotive semiconductors will account for 50% of the total cost of automobiles in 2030, which will become a new profit growth point for automobiles. Under the intelligent wave & carbon neutrality policy, the automotive industry will usher in a revaluation opportunity for value growth, and automotive chips will be revalued under the empowerment of intelligence + electrification, which is expected to become a new driving force for the semiconductor industry.
2. How much incremental space is there for the future value of automotive chips? How much room is there for wafer demand increments?
Compared with traditional cars, it is predicted that the number of various types of chips used in new energy vehicles will be significantly improved.
1) Power management chip: +20% of the demand of 50pcs/vehicle;
2) Gate driver: new demand, 30pcs/vehicle;
3) CIS, ISP: +50% of the demand of 20pcs/vehicle;
4) Display: It is estimated that each new energy vehicle needs 8 pieces;
5) MCU: +30% of the demand of 35 pieces / vehicle;
6) SiC: New requirements
Global automotive sales changes for the incremental demand for semiconductor chips:
Suppose that the semiconductor chips required by traditional cars are 500-600 chips/vehicle, and the semiconductor chips required for new energy vehicles are 1000-2000 chips/vehicle: based on the sales of 72.76 million traditional cars in 2020, 3.24 million new energy vehicles, and the demand for automotive chips is 43.9 billion per year.
It is estimated that in 2026, the sales volume of traditional cars will be 67.8 million units, the number of new energy vehicles will be 44.2 million units, and the demand for automotive chips will be 90.3 billion units per year.
Global automotive sales changes for the value of semiconductor chips incrementally:
Suppose that the semiconductor chips required by traditional cars are $397-462 per unit, and the new energy vehicles are $786-859 per vehicle: the overall global automotive chip value for the whole year of 2020 will be $33.9 billion.
The overall global automotive chip value for the full year of 2026 is expected to be $65.5 billion.
Global Automotive Sales Changes Forecast for Semiconductor Wafer Demand Growth:
12 inches: Demand of 1.98 million pieces in 2020 is expected to increase to 4.04 million pieces in 2026, CAGR 12.6%.
8 inches: Demand of 11.21 million pieces in 2020 is expected to increase to 20.88 million pieces in 2026, CAGR 10.9%.
6 inches: Demand of 4.43 million pieces in 2020 is expected to increase to 13.06 million pieces in 2026, CAGR 19.7%.
4 inches: Demand of 2.52 million pieces in 2020 is expected to increase to 8.45 million pieces in 2026, CAGR 22.3%.
Automotive Electronics Market Size Forecast:
The global automotive electronics market is about $270 billion in 2021 and is expected to be close to $400 billion by 2027.
Automotive semiconductor market size forecast:
The global automotive semiconductor market is about $50.5 billion in 2021 and is expected to be close to $100 billion in 2027.
3. How to classify automotive chips? What is the growth rate of the value of different categories of automotive chips?
Automotive chips can be divided into 5 categories from the application link: main control chips, memory chips, power chips, signal and interface chips, sensor chips, etc. In 2020, main control chips accounted for 23%, power semiconductors accounted for 22%, sensors accounted for 13%, memory chips accounted for 9%, and others accounted for 33%.
The continuous improvement of assisted driving + automatic driving has led to an increase in the volume and price of automotive semiconductors: the core includes 1) vehicle controller; 2) analog chip; 3) main control chip; 4) power semiconductor; 5) memory chip
1. Controller: According to the forecast of GAC Research Institute, the number of traditional car controllers is 40-70, and the number of chips is 400-700. It is expected that the number of new energy vehicle controllers will be 45-80 and the number of chips will be 500-800.
2. Analog chip: intelligent driving needs to obtain a large amount of data through sensors, L2-level cars are expected to carry 6 sensors, L5-level cars are expected to carry 32 sensors, and the proportion of automotive semiconductors has increased significantly.
3. Main control chip: The computing power continues to increase from L1 with the improvement of intelligence
4. Power semiconductor: The value of traditional fuel vehicle power semiconductor bicycles reached 87.6 US dollars, and its bicycle value at the new energy vehicle end reached 458.7 US dollars, achieving more than four times the growth.
5. Memory chip: The automotive storage system will achieve rapid growth with the improvement of capacity and performance of the intelligent level, and the car will become the core factor of the memory entering the 100 billion US dollar market.
4. What are the main lack of automotive chips at present? Which vendors are the most lacking?
From the perspective of the category of missing cores: the main types of cores at present include: power chips and driver chips of the main control chip MCU + power class, according to the calculation of the GAC Research Institute, the three account for 74% of the high-risk cores, followed by the signal chain chip CAN/LIN and other communication chips.
From the perspective of the scope of influence: more than 20 kinds of electronic components are affected, involving chassis, power, new energy, intelligent driving, body, network connection and other fields.
From the perspective of influencing manufacturers: From the distribution of brands with missing cores in automotive chips, it can be seen that the missing cores mainly come from traditional automotive chip companies such as NXP, Texas Instruments, Infineon, ANDMIC, and overall, 75% of the medium- and high-risk core deficiencies come from the above four companies.
From the point of view of origin: from the distribution of the origin of the lack of cores, 77% of the lack of cores from Southeast Asia and the United States, mainly due to the serious epidemic in Southeast Asia and the United States, other including Taiwan, Japan, Europe are facing a lack of cores.
Future impact of car core loss:
From the perspective of industrial progress, 1) power semiconductors are expected to give priority to domestic substitution, the market is gradually stabilizing, and the localization rate of enterprises represented by BYD and CRRC in the mainland continues to increase. And 2) MCU, 3) sensor chip (millimeter wave radar, lidar) Xiaopeng, ideal delivery first and then reload, the future with the increase in the number of mounted, the shortage problem will exist for a long time, 4) SoC chip Although it has no impact at present, but due to the high concentration of high-performance products, there is a risk of shortage in the future. 5) Storage chips currently lack of NOR flash memory, SRAM, and currently like power semiconductors, Gigabit Innovation, Fudan Microelectronics and other companies began related memory chip mass production.
5. The distribution and product layout of the main manufacturers of automotive chips?
Figure: The distribution and product layout of major automotive chip manufacturers, sorted by the market share of automotive semiconductors in 2020
6. What is the localization of automotive chips? What are the opportunities and challenges facing mainland companies?
The current localization rate of automotive electronics is less than 1%, the monopoly of the head manufacturer pattern and the relationship with TIER1 are relatively strong, and the main opportunities in the mainland are: 1) the restructuring of the industrial chain under the wave of automotive intelligence + electrification;
2) Most of the corresponding vehicle specification chips are products that do not rely on Moore's Law mature processes, and the dependence of such chips and downstream is high, and the products need to be jointly defined downstream
3) The slowdown of Moore's Law and the rise of China's new power cars have given the Chinese industry more opportunities to change lanes to catch up; In recent years, most of the wafer manufacturing expansion in the mainland is on the mature process link, superimposed on the supporting design and packaging and testing, which is judged from the market scale, industrial chain restructuring, mature process and other factors to promote the global automotive semiconductor opportunities & production capacity to transfer to China.
7. What are the core enterprises related to automotive semiconductors?
IGBT & 3rd generation semiconductors: Star Semiconductor, Wingtech Technology, Times Electric, BYD, Silan Micro, Dongwei Semiconductor, etc.;
Lidar: Torch Technology, Lantern Optics, Shunyu Optical Technology, Xiang Oil Pump;
Automotive Intelligence: Amlog, Rockchip, Beijing Junzheng, Weier, Gigabit Innovation, Zhongying Electronics;
Auto server related: Montage Technology;
Intelligent driving: Neusoft Group, Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda, etc
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