The semiconductor sector suddenly rose sharply, and the industry ushered in new expectations after the start of the East Numbers and West Calculation Project!

On February 23, A shares rebounded across the board. The semiconductor sector rose nearly 6%, Jiangfeng Electronics (300666), Xinyuan Micro were "20 cm" up and down, Anji Technology (688019), Ashichuang (300706), Jingrui Electric Materials and other stocks also rose or rose by more than 10%. The investment logic of the semiconductor industry has not changed - lack of cores and domestic substitution. However, now the East And West Calculation Project may give new opportunities to the semiconductor industry. Next, this article will focus on analyzing whether the current semiconductor industry still continues the past view and the investment opportunities in the industrial chain under the calculation of the east and the west.

The global semiconductor market is still hot, and the strongest main line is in automotive electronics and photovoltaic chips

According to Global Semiconductor Watch, Infineon recently issued a notice to dealers that due to the shortage of supply in the market and rising upstream costs, Infineon may consider price increases, but the specific price increases and types have not yet been disclosed.

Minsheng Securities believes that the prospects of overseas leaders are optimistic, and the prospects of the power semiconductor market are promising. As a leading enterprise in the global semiconductor industry, Infineon has a market share of 25% in the MOSFET market and more than 30% for IGBTs, so its price increase warning is of great reference significance for the industry prospects. We have previously hinted that the trend of short supply and demand in the power semiconductor industry will continue, because the demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power continues to rise. And 1) According to the market report of Future Electronics Q1, the lead time and price trend of power semiconductor leaders are still rising. 2) Overseas leaders such as Infineon and STMicroelectronics are optimistic about the 22-year performance prospects, STMicroelectronics said that the 22-year production capacity has been sold out, and the backlog of orders will continue for 18 months. 3) Jinlang Technology, a leading domestic photovoltaic inverter company, said that the price increase of inverters in some overseas areas is 9%, and customer acceptance is high, and it is expected that before 22Q4, the supply of chips will be significantly improved. All of them strengthen our judgment that the power semiconductor market, especially IGBT, medium and high voltage MOS market, continues to be booming.

The trend of automobile electrification continues, the supply of distributed photovoltaic inverters is tight, and power semiconductor manufacturers will usher in a dividend period. In January, the delivery of new energy vehicles "opened the door", BYD, Xiaopeng, Ideal, NeGu and other sales continued to exceed expectations, an increase of 1-4 times year-on-year, 22 years of new car-making forces target sales doubled, the wave of electrification continued. According to the estimation of 5 million to 6 million new energy vehicles in China in 22 years, considering the average number of bicycles used 1.3, the demand for IGBT modules is about 7 million. The supply of domestic times electric, Star Semiconductor, Silan Micro, ANDD is not expected to exceed 4 million.

At the same time, with the east wind promoted by the whole county, distributed photovoltaics ushered in rapid development, and the China Electricity Union expects to add 90 GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in 22 years, of which the new installed capacity of distributed inverters will reach 40-45 GW, bringing a large number of IGBT single tube demand. Star, Xinjieneng, Silanwei and other domestic IGBT manufacturers take advantage of the lack of core opportunities to quickly enter the market, and will usher in a large number of production capacity releases within 22 years.

In addition, we must also see that not only IGBT, electric vehicles, photovoltaic inverters will also bring MOSFETs and other demand, domestic power supply manufacturers will continue to get dividends.

The development of the power semiconductor industry, the hardest logic is the domestic substitution. In addition to the boost of short supply, it should be seen that domestic power device manufacturers have accelerated domestic substitution due to the lack of cores. 1) The product structure of power semiconductor manufacturers is rapidly upgrading, and the high-end power devices represented by IGBT and SiC continue to improve in revenue structure; 2) from 6 inches to 8 inches, and then to 12 inches of production lines, Silan Micro is ahead of the 12-inch production line, and is expected to reach 60,000 pieces in 22 years, the 12-inch production line of Wingtech Technology and China Resources Micro is also climbing, and the upgrading of the production line will promote the improvement of process and product capabilities; 3) With the outbreak of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries, The downstream structure of the terminal of domestic manufacturers is continuing to usher in optimization, which not only helps to improve the level of profit margin, but also helps to make profits more stable.

Investment advice: Infineon's price increase tips indicate the continuation of the industry's high prosperity. Benefiting from the electrification of downstream vehicles and the promotion of photovoltaic whole counties, demand support is strong. And we should pay more attention to the domestic enterprises in this round of high prosperity to accelerate the process of domestic substitution, ushering in the continuous upgrading of product structure and customer structure. It is recommended to focus on Silan Micro, Times Electric, Star Semi-Guide, Wingtech Technology, New Clean Energy, Dongwei Semi-Guide, Yangjie Technology, etc.

Overview of the semiconductor chip industry chain of East and West

"Counting" and "counting" refers to data, while "counting" refers to computing power, that is, the ability to process data. Data center-related chips first benefit from "counting the east and counting the west". Data centers can be divided into three elements: "compute," "storage," and "networking."

First, in the short term, data center-related chips are the first to benefit

Server chips: The rapid growth of data processing demand in downstream application industries has directly promoted the development of CPU, GPU, FPGA, XPU and other related chips.

Memory chips: As a data carrier, with the rapid growth of data volume, the number and performance requirements of memory chips are also growing rapidly.

Memory interface chip: As the only way for the CPU to access memory data, its main role is to improve the speed and stability of memory data access, so that it matches the continuous improvement of CPU speed and performance.

Second, in the medium term, look at the data transmission related chip market

Large amounts of data in the east need to be stored and computed stably to the west, and long-distance communication often encounters data latency problems. Therefore, the network communication infrastructure needs to further consolidate the "east number west calculation", and the chip related to communication chips and data transmission will have a lot of room for development.

Communication chips: The demand for transmission devices and wireless devices such as switches, 5G base stations, routers, servers, etc. continues to grow, and the demand for communication chips continues to increase.

Third, data production-related chips have maintained a high boom for a long time

"East number west calculation" solves the problem of energy and land shortage in the east, greatly reduces the calculation cost, and is conducive to generating a large amount of data traffic in the downstream application field. Applications in VR/AR/metaversics, unmanned driving and other fields will accelerate, the demand for related chips will continue to be strong, and data traffic will explode.

VR/AR/Metacosm: The metacosm that reshapes the digital economy system is the carrier of human digitization. With the reduction of computing costs, the metacosm has ushered in a good space for development. VR/AR technology, as a carrier of the metacosm, is expected to develop rapidly.

Autonomous driving: Just during the development phase of self-driving cars, cars can generate large amounts of data. As levels of autonomous driving continue to increase, there will be opportunities for high-performance computing chips, sensors, and lidar.

Founder Securities recommends focusing on relevant targets:

Server chips (CPU): Feiteng (unlisted), C*Core Technology, Haiguang Information (to be listed), Zhaoxin (unlisted), Loongson Zhongke (to be listed);

Server acceleration chips (GPU/FPGA/XPU): Unigroup Guowei, Anlu Technology, Fudan Microelectronics, Cambrian, VeriSilicon, Jingjiawei;

Memory chips: Montage Technology, Gigabit Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, Juchen Shares, Dongxin Shares, Puran Shares;

Communication chips: Chuangyao Technology, Tsinghua Tsinghua, ZTE, Starnet Ruijie, Inspur Information;