Cell prices remained relatively stable. Cells and modules are at the lowest point of the smile curve of the entire photovoltaic industry chain. Unlike the tight supply and demand of silicon materials, but also different from the strong bargaining power of silicon wafer manufacturers due to high concentration, the cell production capacity is relatively scattered, which is affected by the double impact of the rise in upstream raw material prices and the price control of downstream operators.
Since the beginning of the year, benefiting from the recovery of terminal demand, the price of upstream silicon wafers has experienced a large increase, and the single crystal 210mm silicon wafer has risen from 5.48 yuan / piece to 8.00 yuan / piece, an increase of 46.0%, while the price of mono 210mm cells has not been much affected, maintaining at 1.05 yuan / W left and right.
Silicon wafer cell integration enterprise to achieve profitability. From the perspective of profit analysis, due to the rapid rise in the price of upstream silicon wafers, the stacked cells are restricted by the downstream price control, and the battery link is basically lost. According to our calculations, the loss of G1/M6/M10/G12 cells reached 0.062/0.065/0.026/0.036 yuan/W, respectively.
By superimposing the profits of the upstream silicon wafer link, the integrated enterprises achieve profitability, and the total profit of G1/M6/M10/G12 is 0.078/0.040/0.078/0.078 yuan /W. Large battery cells enjoy a certain excess profit.
Large cells have higher conversion efficiency and can reduce non-silicon costs, so as to enjoy a certain excess profit. In the cell segment, compared with M6 products, M10/G12 cells have an excess profit of 0.039/0.029 yuan/W. In the silicon wafer segment, compared to M6 products, G12 cells have an excess profit of 0.009 yuan / W. From the perspective of silicon cell integration, compared with M6 products, M10/G12 integrated products have a premium of 0.038/0.038 yuan/W.
The large-scale size will continue to advance, and battery technology will be converted to TOPCon and HJT
The market share of large-size products will continue to increase. Large cells offer higher conversion efficiency while reducing non-silicon costs. With the development of the photovoltaic industry, the silicon wafer manufacturing production line continues to upgrade, and the size of the silicon wafer is also constantly large.
According to CPIA statistics, 156.75mm silicon wafers accounted for 17.7% in 2020, and 182mm and 210mm in total accounted for about 4.5%. With the transformation and upgrading of the production line, it is expected that the 156.75mm size silicon wafer will be eliminated around 2022, and the market share of 182mm and 210mm will reach 50% in 2021 and continue to expand.
Battery technology is converted to TOPCon and HJT. At present, the conversion efficiency of P-PERC batteries is close to the theoretical limit of 24%, and the future improvement space is limited. In order to meet the needs of efficiency improvement, manufacturers have increased the layout of N-TOPCon and N-HJT technologies. TOPCon technology can be retrofitted and upgraded on existing production lines, the investment cost is relatively small, and the market share is expected to increase significantly in the next few years.
HJT technology has many advantages such as large potential for conversion efficiency and great potential for chipping and cost reduction, but it is limited by the current high investment cost and slow industrialization. In the future, with the further decline in investment costs such as equipment, the market share of HJT battery technology is expected to increase rapidly, replacing PERC as the third generation of battery cell technology.
Source: CITIC Securities; Author: Wang Zhe, Hua Pengwei, Li Chao