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As the saying goes, the world will be divided for a long time, and it will be divided for a long time. The stock market is the same, after a long downturn, finally a long drought in Ganlin, showing the background of "Chinese red".
Among them, the most interesting, photovoltaic cells are HJT cells (heterojunction cells). Entering 2022, the almost waist-chopping HJT sector index finally ushered in the "return of the king" yesterday, rising by 8.3%, and concept stocks such as Oriental Risheng (300118) and Jinchen shares (603396) directly rose and stopped.
HJT Sector Index
HJT batteries can enter the entry field so quickly, mainly because the conversion efficiency of the original battery technology (PERC batteries) has reached its limit, and for HJT, the sky is its limit (jokingly, the conversion efficiency is still limited). I don't know how many people remember that in the past year, LONGi has broken the world record for battery conversion efficiency seven times on different technical routes.
The most recent time was this month that LONGi created a new world record of 25.40% conversion efficiency of indium-free HJT batteries, which consolidated the industrialization foundation of the low-cost technical route of HJT batteries. According to LONGi's own disclosure, in the third quarter of this year, the new battery technology will be put into production. In addition, the pace of other players has not stopped, the HJT battery efficiency of Maiwei Shares (300751) has exceeded 26%, and 8 HJT battery equipment lines have been sold, with a production capacity of 600MW/piece, a total of 4.8GW.
It used to feel like HJT was far away from us, but now it's close to us.
So, as the new upstart of the battery, how will the process technology develop, and how can the player better carry forward the advantages of this battery? The author takes you into the world of HJT batteries.
First, there is a dilemma before there is a breakthrough
The photovoltaic industry has experienced so many years of development, and cost reduction and efficiency increase are the eternal theme. Under this theme, the photovoltaic track has opened the era of affordable Internet access.
Without subsidies, for players to fight is the ability to control costs (look at the fierce competition between lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium in the lithium battery circle, you know). At this time, the industry's existing PERC battery, because the theoretical efficiency limit is only 24%, let the industry players into anxiety.
The efficiency of PERC is close to its limits
At this time, a new generation of battery technology is slowly entering people's vision. For example, HJT batteries, TOPCon batteries, IBC batteries and so on. If you ask the author who can come out on top in the technological replacement of the new generation of batteries, the author's point is that the TOPCon battery may run faster, but the HJT battery will run farther.
Market Rate Forecast by Battery Technology (CPIA)
Why is this so, because THE TOPCon battery (tunnel-through oxide layer passivation contact battery) is compatible with the current perC battery production line, but it adds steps such as boron expansion and tunneling oxide layer deposition, which can be modified on the basis of PERC batteries.
If the TOPCon battery is just a charcoal in the snow, then the HJT battery is the real guy who draws the salary. Structurally, HJT cells are based on N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers as substrates, and thin films are deposited on both sides. The HJT battery, which appeared in 1974, finally became the hope of the whole village fifty years later.
Schematic diagram of HJT battery structure
Its advantages needless to say, the process is quite simple, 4 processes can be completed, how many TOPCon? 9-12 lanes. Moreover, it uses a thin film deposition process, which allows it to be combined with IBC batteries or perovskite batteries. At the same time, it has a better battery temperature coefficient and lower power loss at high temperatures.
Temperature coefficient of different batteries (Prospective Industry Research Institute)
Finally, the yield, because the TOPCon battery has more process links, so the yield is only 90%-95% compared to the PERC battery (98.5% yield), while the HJT battery is easier to control because of the fewer steps (the current yield is above 98%).
Second, the cost does not fall, everything is on paper
No one in the world is perfect, and the same is true for photovoltaic cells. The cost of the HJT battery is the sword of Damocles hanging over its head.
If the PERC battery and the HJT battery are taken to break the wrist, the comprehensive production cost of the HJT module is about 0.17 yuan / W higher than the comprehensive production cost of the PERC module (the cost of the PERC module is about 1.26 yuan / W, and the cost of the HJT module is about 1.43 yuan / W). So if the HJT battery wants to win in terms of cost, there is still a certain way to go, which ones are specific?
COMPARISON OF PERC BATTERIES AND HJT BATTERIES (SOLARZOOM)
To reduce costs, although silicon is the largest cost component of HJT cells, the author's judgment that it is easiest to reduce costs is mainly non-silicon costs (the cost level is roughly in the range of 0.6-0.7 yuan / W, and there is still room for decline compared to the target of 0.4-0.5 yuan / W).
Non-silicon cost composition of HJT cells (molar PV)
There are many specific ways to reduce costs, for example, the localization of auxiliary materials. Just introduced the production process of HJT batteries, in the cleaning and fleece-making process, HJT battery fleece additives mainly rely on imported additives, and the high cost can be imagined. But in fact, the cost of the additive itself is very low, mainly we are limited, domestic players are also studying fleece additives and have made a breakthrough. According to research institutions, the cost of cleaning and making fleece can be reduced by more than 80%.
Another example is equipment, the current investment level of the entire line of imported equipment is about 800 million yuan / GW, and the expected level after full localization is less than 500 million yuan / GW.
In addition, there are also reductions in the amount of silver paste, improvement of the process, etc. can achieve the final cost reduction. All in all, the road to cost reduction of HJT batteries cannot rely solely on the efforts of players on the track, and the upstream and downstream forces are king.
Third, the big exam is coming
Judging from the rhythm of the layout of HJT batteries by various players, due to the differences in the strategy and strength of each player, the players who run fast will be put into production in the second half of this year. This year will be the first year of large-scale mass production of HJT batteries.
The sharp rise in the HJT battery plate in these two days may be the sign of "grain and grass first". Mastering the "report card" of the first-mover player will lay a solid foundation for whether the future can achieve subversion.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.