Players, the public and capital in the domestic and foreign travel markets seem to have reached a consensus on the perception of future transportation.
Last week, Musk, while introducing Tesla's strong Q1 results to the market, expressed his expectations for the mass production of Tesla's Robotaxi (self-driving taxi) in 2024, calling it "a huge driver of Tesla's growth." This week, after Xiaoma Zhixing won the first taxi operating license belonging to an autonomous driving company in China, Ruqi Travel announced the completion of a round of financing of more than 1 billion yuan for the construction of the Robotaxi fleet.
On April 28, in Yizhuang, Beijing issued the first batch of unmanned demonstration application road test notices to Baidu and other companies, which means that users have the opportunity to hit a Robotaxi without a driver behind the steering wheel on the Radish Run platform. It is understood that this is the first time in the world that unmanned autonomous driving travel services have been carried out in megacities.
Back in 2018, The Economist made the argument that in the future of driverlessness, "selling rides, not cars" (selling tickets instead of cars) was raised. But for a long time, the dilemma of autonomous driving technology and commercialization, as well as the ups and downs of the shared travel industry itself, has made Robotaxi a "castle in the sky" in the eyes of doubters, and capital is not loved and the public does not believe.
But clearly, change has taken place. The simultaneous rise of the Robotaxi industry at home and abroad shows that more and more people and companies believe that Robotaxi is not an illusory story, but a future that can be truly touched.
Capital focuses on Robotaxi
Over the past few years, tech giants have gradually made Robotaxi the most everyday means of travel. In December 2018, Waymo One, Waymo's self-driving manned service, was launched in Phoenix, which is seen as the beginning of the global commercial use of self-driving taxis. In June 2021, Cruise received a license from the California Public Utilities Commission, becoming the first self-driving passenger carrier in California to offer a completely unmanned ride on public roads. In August of the same year, Baidu upgraded Apollo Go and launched the self-driving travel service platform "Radish Run".
Waymo, Cruise, Baidu, these companies with the world's top autonomous driving technology, have been invested in the landing and promotion of Robotaxi. These industry leaders have unanimously entered the exploration of the commercialization of autonomous driving, which may fully illustrate the possibility of large-scale application of autonomous driving.
The exploration of the head player has also achieved certain results. Baidu disclosed in its 2021 Q4 financial report that the number of radish fast running orders in the fourth quarter was about 213,000, an increase of nearly double that of the previous quarter, covering eight cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Changsha, Cangzhou and Yangquan. In the third quarter of last year, Radish Run provided 115,000 rides, making it the world's leading provider of self-driving mobility services.
For automakers, a new future of mobility based on autonomous driving has had a huge impact on traditional car manufacturing business models. Whether it is domestic and foreign, traditional car companies or new forces, more and more OEMs have also joined the wrestling field of Robotaxi to seize the positioning of travel service providers in the era of automatic driving.
The highly anticipated player is, of course, Tesla. Tesla's latest model, the Robotaxi without steering wheels and pedals, will be driven entirely using Tesla's FSD (fully autonomous driving software), which Musk said he hopes to mass-produce in 2023. Among the new domestic car-making forces, Xiaopeng also clearly announced the Robotaxi plan, and said that it will carry out Robotaxi test operations on the Xiaopeng G9 in the fourth quarter of this year.
Traditional automakers are more likely to deploy the Robotaxi fleet by combining OEMs, mobility platforms, and autonomous driving companies.
For example, GAC launched its mobile travel platform Ruqi Travel, and cooperated with Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing to establish and operate the Robotaxi fleet. Similarly, SAIC, Xiangdao Travel and Momenta, Geely, Cao Cao Travel and Yuanrong Qixing have all worked closely together around Robotaxi.
Players in the industry have a lively opening, the balance in the hearts of capital has also begun to tilt, and more and more funds are pouring into the construction of future travel. According to IT Orange data, as of April 27, there have been 44 investment and financing incidents in automatic/driverless tracks this year, compared with 143 in the whole of 2021 and only 77 in 2020.
In addition, the most exciting thing for the industry is that the attitude of domestic and foreign policies towards Robotaxi is becoming more relaxed and open.
In China, in November last year, the "Beijing Intelligent Connected Vehicle Policy Pilot Zone Autonomous Driving Service Commercialization Pilot Management Implementation Rules (Trial)" was released, allowing enterprises to operate autonomous vehicles for a fee, and a resident of Yizhuang, Beijing, used "Radish Run" to complete the first paid order in China Robotaxi. This week, Xiaoma Zhixing also won the taxi business license in Nansha District, Guangzhou.
On April 28, unmanned driving once again ushered in good news, Beijing issued the first batch of unmanned demonstration application road test notices to Baidu, and Robotaxi, which has no one behind the steering wheel, will soon become a reality on the radish fast running platform, which will be an important breakthrough in the development of China's autonomous driving.
Overseas, on March 1, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) issued licenses to Google's parent companies Alphabet and General Motors to provide self-driving passenger transportation services, which also means that Waymo and Cruise can provide paid passenger transportation services in and around San Francisco.
Under the background of macroeconomic pressure, as an important part of digital infrastructure construction and AI infrastructure construction, automatic driving has become the trend of the times. Never do it, never invest to invest, from strict to open, the attitude of the industry, the market and the policy towards Robotaxi has changed significantly.
The public began to trust autonomous driving
The Market for Robotaxi, which represents the commercial application of autonomous driving, is hot. The increasingly crowded track and the increasingly frequent financing news all indicate that the future belonging to autonomous driving is gradually approaching.
The book Intelligent Transportation: Major Changes Affecting Humanity in the Next 10-40 Years discusses several key factors in the commercial maturity of autonomous driving, which also reveal the reasons why Robotaxi is becoming more and more recognized today.
The first factor is front-loading mass production and cost reduction. In the early stage of the development of automatic driving, millions of cars cannot become a scalable product, which has become the reason why some people suspect that automatic driving cannot be landed on a large scale.
But at present, the cost of bicycles is being sharply reduced, and in June last year, Baidu Apollo Moon reduced the cost of bicycles to 480,000 yuan. The low cost of bicycles also means the opening of profit space, JPMorgan Chase has judged that Baidu's self-driving travel service platform - Radish Run is expected to reach an inflection point in 2022 and achieve bicycle profitability in 2025.
The second factor is the "safety officer", which is considered to be a key part of the commercial operation of self-driving taxis from the testing stage, and it is also an important consideration for the ability of machines to replace human labor.
At present, the exploration of Robotaxi by domestic and foreign head players has also come to the stage of "going to the security officer". In December 2020, Cruise began testing self-driving cars without safety officers in San Francisco, USA. In March, Waymo said it was ready to deploy truly fully autonomous vehicles without safety officers on the streets of San Francisco. In China, with the liberalization of Beijing's policies, Baidu's Radish Run will also officially open unmanned autonomous driving travel services.
On the basis of reducing costs and removing safety personnel, the final consideration for the commercial maturity of autonomous driving is the scale of commercial operation, and the competition of cost control, scale and operational capabilities will be more prominent. At present, autonomous driving manufacturers are accumulating and polishing their large-scale operation capabilities by launching Robotaxi services.
When these three factors are gradually matured, the large-scale application of autonomous driving is no longer the illusory future that people imagine.
In fact, in the daily life of the public, the presence of autonomous driving has become stronger and stronger.
Taking the recent epidemics in Shanghai and Beijing, which have touched people's hearts, as an example, self-driving vehicles have made important contributions in material transportation and personnel transfer. Baidu Apollo driverless car, shuttle in the isolation hotel, residents sealed control area, to provide materials for epidemic prevention and control personnel, Jingdong, Meituan and other hundreds of unmanned delivery vehicles were transferred to Shanghai, SenseTime self-driving minibus to help anti-epidemic materials and medical staff transport, Winche smart heavy truck to implement Shanghai guarantee supply material transportation...
When these overhead radar Robotaxi are seen and used more and more frequently, when they play a greater value instead of human drivers, when there are more and more landing scenarios for autonomous driving, the public will naturally continue to accumulate trust in automatic driving.
This is the result of the long-term efforts and accumulation of autonomous driving manufacturers, capital attention, policy easing, and public trust, all of which are rooted in the maturity of autonomous driving technology and operating models. At the same time, this trust feeds back into the longer-term development and wider application of autonomous driving.
Where is the endgame of autonomous driving?
In the changes in the industry, capital, policies, and public psychology, a consensus based on autonomous driving is gradually forming.
For the future of travel, automakers have given a new four-way judgment of "electrification", "networking", "intelligence" and "sharing"; software manufacturers believe that the car will become a "scene", passengers do not need to pay attention to road conditions and steering wheels, but to listen to songs, brush dramas, and even play games; including Baidu, autonomous driving operation service providers, are exploring "travel as a service" ("MaaS"), trying to provide one-stop service for people's travel needs. Let the various means of transport move from complete fragmentation to integrated intermodal transport.
These seemingly subversive imaginations depict a more "smart" transportation system with smarter cars and smarter roads.
In such an intelligent transportation system, travel becomes safer. According to the International Road Safety Association, about 1.35 million people die in traffic accidents each year, which means that on average, one person dies in a traffic accident every 24 seconds worldwide. In this regard, a report by the Boston Consulting Group believes that smart driving is expected to become the most far-reaching technology since the invention of the car, and the widespread use of smart cars and self-driving taxis, especially shared self-driving taxis in urban areas, can reduce the number of cars on urban streets by 60%, while reducing road traffic accidents by 90%.
Intelligent transportation systems can also effectively solve the problem of congestion. According to the book "Smart Transportation", within 10 years, the problem of urban congestion can basically be solved by improving traffic efficiency. In fact, in some experimental areas, the effect of automatic driving and vehicle-road coordination on improving traffic efficiency has been fully verified, such as Kaitai Avenue, the core trunk road in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, which has achieved a green light through 12 intersections, and the average travel time of the road has dropped by 25%.
In addition, intelligent transportation systems also undertake a low-carbon mission. The ongoing electrification of vehicles will significantly reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars and trucks. On the basis of electrification, cars with autonomous driving capabilities will reduce vehicle accidents, which will also greatly reduce people's economic losses in road accidents, reduce the congestion time and energy consumption of vehicles on the road.
Such a safer, more efficient and low-carbon transportation is a beautiful imagination of people's future travel, and has become a common vision of the industry. Moreover, the increasing progress and practice in the field of autonomous driving and Robotaxi shows that such a vision is not empty talk, but a practical direction.
It is gratifying that science and technology manufacturers, autonomous driving manufacturers, car companies, operators, policies, people... the expectations and beliefs in the future of transportation are becoming stronger and stronger. Such a belief will gradually be transformed into an incentive and spur on technology and operation, the exploration of enterprises, the inclination of policies and capital, there is no doubt that we are on the eve of the advent of the era of intelligent transportation.
(The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.) Investors operate accordingly at their own risk. ）
Text/Charlene