In the evolution of photovoltaic cell technology from P type to N type, Aixu Co., Ltd. (600732. SH) chose IBC (N-type fork finger back connection) technology in its own way, but the mass production of this new technology seems to be running into problems at the moment.
The company's latest announcement, due to changes in industry conditions, market environment, financing timing and other factors, decided to terminate the fixed increase plan of 3.5 billion yuan. Previously, the company announced a pre-increase plan in April 2021, which intends to raise funds to invest in the construction of a total of 8.5GW of ABC battery mass production projects.
In the various technical routes of N-type batteries, why did Aixu choose IBC technology, which is less popular? Can the unique ABC battery allow the company to continue its previous advantages in the field of high-efficiency cells?
Technology iteration drives performance growth
Aixu co., Ltd. has been committed to the research and development, production and sales of photovoltaic cells since its inception in 2009, from the conversion of polycrystalline - monocrystalline, monocrystalline cells - monoCRYS cells, mono perc batteries - large size monoCRY cells, the company continues to grow with the change of battery technology.
In 2015, Aixu opened the conversion of polycrystalline to monocrystalline, mass production of monocrystalline cells, and ushered in the era of photovoltaic monocrystalline modules.
From 2017 to 2018, Aixu successfully developed the preparation method of tubular PERC batteries and mass-produced them, becoming the world's largest supplier of monoCRY PERC batteries.
In 2019, the company's monocrystalline PERC battery frontal mass production conversion efficiency can reach 22.50%, and Tongwei shares ranked first in the industry.
In January 2020, the company launched the world's first 210mm mono PERC battery, and in July of the same year, it released a 182mm mono PERC battery and achieved mass production, leading the industry into the era of large size.
According to Tonglian data datayes! In 2019 and 2020, Aixu co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 6.069 billion yuan and 9.064 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 47.74% and 59.23% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother was 585 million yuan and 805 million yuan, an increase of 69.61% and 37.63% year-on-year.
However, after the existing PERC technology route exceeds 23% of the mass production conversion efficiency, it will be difficult to improve it.
In June 2021, Chen Gang, chairman of Aixu Co., Ltd., said that at present, the PERC technology dividend has basically disappeared, and the whole industry must have new technologies to appear in order to obtain profits and reduce the cost of electricity. The "N era" may come.
N-type batteries mainly contain TOPCon, HJT (heterojunction), IBC three technologies. ISFH data show that the theoretical limit efficiency of PERC, HJT, and TOPCon batteries is 24.5%, 27.5%, and 28.7%, respectively. In 2030, the conversion efficiency of N-type batteries will exceed 25.5%, which is more than 1 percentage point higher than that of P-type batteries. CPIA expects that the market share of N-type batteries will reach about 56% by then.
In terms of technical route selection, Aixu shares do not take the usual path. Most companies choose to start with TOPCon and HJT technology, but the company goes straight to the IBC technology route and launches the N-type ABC's own patented technology battery on this basis.
Judging from public data, the company's investment plan for a new generation of N-type high-efficiency solar cell projects exceeds 7 billion yuan, can bet on ABC Technology's Aixu shares?
Can the ABC battery achieve cornering overtaking?
"Aixu chose ABC technology for overtaking in curves." A brokerage machinery and equipment analyst told First Finance that of course, the company also has certain research in topcon and HJT.
It is reported that the process of IBC batteries is completely different from THAT batteries, and the technical barriers are high. IBC battery belongs to the back contact battery, the positive and negative electrodes are on the back of the battery, the battery structure is completely different from TOPCon, HJT, the process is the most complex.
Thanks to years of accumulation in the field of photovoltaic cells, Aixu has achieved certain results in ABC patent research and development based on IBC technology, and announced the launch of high-efficiency N-type ABC batteries in June 2021.
The company said in the 2021 semi-annual report that the high-efficiency N-type ABC battery products are expected to form a scale production capacity of 8.5GW (Yiwu New Generation Phase I 2GW and Zhuhai Phase I 6.5GW) in mid-2022, and if put into production successfully, the project is expected to become the largest production line of N-type technology.
But obviously, with the termination of fundraising, the company's mass production target of ABC battery products may be difficult to achieve as scheduled.
It is undeniable that the high cost of ABC requires financial support.
From the perspective of the cost of P and N type batteries, the production cost of IBC is 1.0-2.0 yuan / W, higher than that of P type and TOPCon, mainly due to the complex IBC process, equipment investment of up to 300 million yuan / GW; and in 2022, IBC's production capacity forecast is only 4GW at most, far lower than P type, TOPCon and HJT.
In December 2021, the company said in an institutional survey that there are currently fewer domestic enterprises doing IBC and ABC, and the core technology equipment of ABC comes from overseas, and the cost advantage will appear in the future with the improvement of the localization rate. The company's goal is to strive for production costs that are equal to OR even lower than PERC.
"The cost of ABC and IBC is similar. And in addition to the high cost, there are some technical problems that have not been solved. The analyst said.
Previously, some insiders said that for many leading enterprises, the advantages and disadvantages of the N-type battery technology route determine that "desperate bets" may be the "most unwise" choice.
Aixu shares are going against the wind. The above analyst said that to say whether ABC has more room for development than other N-type batteries, the answer is that "space is available, but there is uncertainty in the technical route, so this is a phased problem." Because the ABC battery has not really landed, the market is not very clear whether it will be stronger than its technical route, the bet is successful, the bet is not right, the bet is not right, or it depends on the final verification results.
As for why the company chose the IBC technology route, and how the impact of the late production schedule of ABC batteries on the short-term interim results was not expected, CBN called Aixu shares, but as of press time, there was no reply.
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