First, TOPCon continues to open up the past, and the technical route is diversified
TOPCon technology is a new type of passivated contact solar cell first proposed by the Fraunhofer Solar Energy Research Institute in Germany at the 28th European PHOTOVOLTAIC Conference in 2013. The structural difference between TOPCon batteries and PERC batteries is that ultra-thin tunneling oxide layer and polycrystalline silicon layer are added on the back, and the two form a passivation contact structure, providing a good interface passivation for the back of the silicon wafer.
With the continuous advancement of TOPCon technology, its competitiveness has gradually emerged, mainly in the following three aspects:
First, the conversion efficiency is higher and the potential is greater. PERC's current mass production conversion efficiency is about 23%, the conversion efficiency of the improvement space has been limited, TOPCon's current mass production conversion efficiency is about 24.0-24.5%, the theoretical maximum conversion efficiency is 28.7%, and the HJT (heterojunction) battery 28.5% conversion efficiency is relatively close, and the HJT battery mass production conversion efficiency is currently also about 24.0-24.5%, the two are relatively close.
Second, it has a high degree of compatibility with the stock OF PERC, and can inherit the technology accumulation of the PERC era and most of the equipment. Compared with the existing PERC production sequence, TOPCon mainly adds equipment such as boron diffusion and tunneling layer deposition LPCVD/PECVD/PVD; at the same time, the new large-size PERC production line in the past two years generally reserves the upgrade space for TOPCon, and some manufacturers have also specially launched equipment for the transformation of existing production lines, such as Jiejia Weichuang launched a three-in-one equipment, and signed a contract with Runyang for the transformation of 5GW stock production line.
TOPCon technology can extend the life cycle of existing production lines and save capital expenditures. According to Yingli Energy's data, the investment in equipment for new PERC production lines is 120-170 million yuan /GW, the investment in new TOPCon production line equipment is 200-250 million yuan /GW, and the investment in new HJT production line equipment is 400-450 million yuan /GW. If upgraded from PERC to TOPCon, the equipment investment amount is 0.5-0.7 billion yuan / GW, which can effectively reduce investment costs; in addition, from the perspective of the average battery cost of the industry, the single W cost of TOPCon is about 0.1 yuan / W higher than PERC, and the single W cost of individual TOPCon advanced production capacity has been quite close to PERC, the single W cost of HJT is about 0.2-0.3 yuan / W higher than PERC, and the single W cost gap of advanced production capacity can be 0.2 yuan / W around.
Third, the cost performance has certain advantages. The high conversion efficiency of TOPCon makes the battery unit watt and unit area power generation improved, which can effectively reduce the BOS cost. JinkoSolar's N-type TOPCon module efficiency has been further improved compared with existing products, with the latest N-type TOPCon module Tiger Neo achieving an efficiency of 22.2% and a power of 620W, and both Trina and ZLB have launched 700W modules.
At the same time, THE TOPCon battery has a good low-light effect, which delays the daily power generation time of the module and effectively reduces the LCOE. According to the data released by the Zhonglai public account, considering the dimension of the 25-year life cycle, compared with the PERC module, the first year of attenuation of the TOPCon component is 1%, the BOS cost is 3.9% lower, the LCOE is 6.6%, the power generation gain is 6.3%, and the empirical power generation test of the third-party testing agency TUV North Germany under different reflectance ground conditions found that the TOPCon module can get up to 30% of the power generation gain, if the control LCOE is unchanged ($0.1066), and the main Compared to stream PERC components, TOPCon components have a price advantage of 2.8 cents per watt over PERC.
TOPCon technology solutions are diverse, LPCVD is relatively mature, PECVD, PVD, PEALD and other skills are displayed, the proprietary technology of the battery link is expected to increase, and the competitive landscape is expected to be optimized. From the structural point of view, the TOPCon structure is divided into two layers: the first layer is an ultra-thin silicon oxide tunneling layer, with a thickness of 1-2nm, which can be formed by thermal oxygen and chemical corrosion.
The second layer is doped polysilicon layer, can be prepared by LPCVD, PECVD, PVD and other methods, the main technical route is divided into phosphorus expansion doping, ion implantation doping, in situ doping, and the traditional diffusion doping is different, ion implantation is to ionize the heterogeneous atoms into charged particles, and then use a strong electric field to accelerate these particles into the silicon matrix material for doping, but the ion collision will cause lattice fracture or damage, the need for annealing to complete the removal and activation of doped ions; Doping is to deposit polysilicon while introducing gas containing impurities, so that polysilicon doped uniformly, the later stage also needs to be annealed to achieve the purpose of crystallization, PECVD, PVD mostly use in situ doping. Based on their own technical accumulation, each battery manufacturer has chosen different technical routes to tackle key problems, with LONGi and Jinko mainly based on LPCVD, Tongwei mainly based on PECVD and PEALD, and Zhonglai mainly based on POPID.
We believe that unlike the more unified technical route of PERC and HJT, TOPCon's diverse technical solutions make battery manufacturers change from the previous whole line procurement to the sub-link procurement of equipment "saving" production line, which is expected to enhance the battery end's right to speak in the industrial chain, and the competitive landscape is expected to be optimized.
The preparation of tunneling oxide layer, the thermal oxidation method is relatively mature, and the PECVD method and the ALD method are also the focus of the current research. For the preparation of tunneling oxide layer mainly includes thermal oxidation method, PECVD, atomic layer deposition, wet chemical method, etc., at present, the preparation of TOPCon oxide layer mainly adopts thermal oxidation method, the passivation effect is the best, but the reaction speed is slower, the equipment used in the thermal oxygen method is a thermal oxidation tube furnace, which can be integrated with amorphous silicon deposition link equipment; the advantage of the PECVD method is that the growth rate is faster, but the passivation effect and uniformity are slightly worse; the ALD passivation effect and uniformity are better than the PECVD method, but the growth rate is poor Wet chemistry and excimer source dry hydrogen methods are less common.
For the preparation of doped polysilicon layers, the LPCVD method is the existing mainstream and relatively mature, and the PECVD method, PEALD method and PVD method are also the key directions of current research. For doped polysilicon layers, there are mainly 4 preparation methods, of which LPCVD, PECVD and PEARLD belong to the chemical deposition method, while the sputtering method belongs to the physical vapor deposition (PVD) method. LPCVD is a relatively mature process of equipment, with high yield, can directly prepare n-type polysilicon layer advantages, but will damage the quartz parts, quartz parts need to be replaced regularly, and there is a problem of winding; PECVD method deposition speed is higher than LPCVD, but its equipment requirements are high, while the resulting film layer is not dense, sintering after the opening pressure is low; PEALD is a newer technology, using the principle of atomic layer deposition, its deposition rate is the highest, but the cost is higher, and it can not solve the problem of PECVD film layer is not dense The advantages of ;P VD are that there is no pollution, simple and safe operation, and the deposition rate is higher than LPCVD, but the disadvantage is that the amount of silicon target is large, the cost is high, the uniformity of the film layer is relatively poor, and the annealing temperature is also high.
In addition to the common N-type TOPCon battery, there is now a P-type silicon wafer-based TOPCon battery structure, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences Ningbo Institute of Materials public information, P-type TOPCon battery front and PERC structure consistent, no need to increase boron expansion equipment, only increase silicon oxide and polysilicon related equipment (such as "two-in-one" PECVD equipment), only limited equipment investment, very suitable for the upgrading of existing PERC production lines.
From the perspective of the existing conversion efficiency record and the layout of the manufacturer, due to the relative maturity of LPCVD, the existing layout of most manufacturers is mainly based on the LPCVD method, and a small part is the PECVD method; it is worth noting that 25.50% of the conversion efficiency of the Ningbo Research Institute is obtained by the PECVD method. In addition, the PVD method is mainly in the layout, and PEALD is mainly dominated by Tongwei and micro-conduction.
At present, many companies in the industry have laid out TOPCon batteries and launched high-power TOPCon modules. According to the 2021 SNEC exhibition, a number of manufacturers have launched TOPCon module products, and most of the mass production conversion efficiency has reached more than 22%.
TOPCon is expected to take the lead in volume, and the annual production capacity investment in 22 years is expected to exceed 30GW. According to the disclosure of JinkoSolar's public account, in January 2022, Anhui JinkoSolar Phase I 8GW of new high-efficiency cells were put into production, mainly producing high-efficiency N-type TOPCon batteries, the average mass production efficiency of JinkoSOL's TOPCon batteries is currently 24.5%, and the maximum efficiency has reached 25.4%, and the commissioning of the project indicates that the conditions for large-scale investment of TOPCon have been relatively mature; in addition to Dejinko, LONGi, Trina, ZL, JAO and other cell manufacturers and BYD and other new manufacturers have different scale of investment plans, according to statistics, the current planned TOPCon production capacity of more than 100GW, we expect that in 2022 TOPCon will usher in the peak period of production, is expected to exceed 30GW.
Second, THE TOPCon technology solution is multi-point flowering, and equipment manufacturers are competing for glory
TOPCon technology solutions are diverse, and equipment manufacturers have their own emphases. In the PERC technology upgrade to TOPCon's core 3 major process steps (tunneling oxide layer, polysilicon layer, diffusion), a number of manufacturers have launched their own technical solutions, the oxide layer needs to add new equipment is mainly oxide furnace, PECVD, PEALD, tunneling oxide layer generally needs to increase LPCVD, PECVD, according to the different doping schemes, it is necessary to increase the annealing furnace, diffusion furnace or ion implantation machine.
At present, more LPCVD schemes for Laplace are used, that is, thermal oxygen (oxidation furnace) for tunneling oxide layers, polycrystalline silicon layers with "intrinsic + phosphorus expansion" (LPCVD, diffusion furnace), the scheme technology is mature, but there are problems such as low production capacity and low yield, polycrystalline silicon layers can also be "doped + annealed" (LPCVD, annealing furnace), it is easier to clean around the coating, but there are problems such as slower coating rate and film uniformity; Based on its own deep accumulation in PECVD, Jiejia Weichuang launched a "three-in-one" The equipment, to achieve the preparation of tunneling layer, polysilicon layer, in situ doping layer, to solve the traditional TOPCon battery production process around the plating, quartz parts high loss of the inherent difficulties, and the new PE-poly route in situ doping time is only one-fifth of the traditional LP route; micro-conductivity proposed PEALD-based scheme, tunneling oxide layer using PECVD-based "doping + annealing" scheme, with oxide layer uniformity easy to control, slight coating, fast coating rate, but also has a higher H content, Prone to film bursting problems.
It is estimated that the photovoltaic cell equipment market size will be about 25.4 billion yuan in 2022, of which the TOPCon equipment market size will be about 9.2 billion yuan. By counting the new capacity of the new cell link in China, and making assumptions about the proportion of different technical routes in the new capacity and the input of the production line, we have obtained that the photovoltaic equipment market size from 2022 to 2025 is 254/348/430/535 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate remains at about 20%.
Third, the silicon material production capacity is released, and the profitability of the battery has rebounded
Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend, waiting for downstream profits to improve. From the beginning of 21 to the beginning of January 22, the price of silicon material rose from 72 yuan / kg to 235 yuan / kg, an increase of 226%, the highest reached 270 yuan / kg during the period, an increase of 275%, the same period of cell price from about 0.95 yuan / W rose to about 1.10 yuan / W, the increase was only about 16%, silicon prices rose, the cost of the cell link can not be smoothly transmitted downwards, making the cell link profit worse.
Taking Aixu shares as an example, the gross profit margin of the four quarters of 20Q4-21Q3 was 17.7%/9.7%/1.7%/6.0%, and the net profit margin was 12.7%/3.4%/-3.2%/-0.5%, and the operating rate and profitability of the battery link were not ideal, which also caused a certain negative impact on the investment and acceptance of battery equipment. We believe that the high price of silicon materials has only caused the delay of the investment in cell equipment rather than cancellation, with the gradual release of silicon production capacity, the gradual improvement of the operating rate and profitability of the cell link, the investment in cell equipment will continue.
In 2022, with the gradual release of silicon production capacity, the status quo of "relative shortage" of silicon materials is expected to be improved within the year, and the profitability of cells may rebound, which is expected to drive capital expenditure upwards. According to Jibang Consulting, by the end of 2022, the global effective production capacity of polysilicon is expected to reach 800,000-850,000 tons, and the new production capacity is about 200,000-300,000 tons. Considering the silicon material production capacity climbing time of about 6 months, and affected by the double control of energy consumption and production line maintenance, the new effective capacity of silicon material in the first half of 2022 is limited, superimposed on the downstream rigid installed capacity demand, silicon material is still in a tight balance state, with the Q3, Q4 quarter silicon manufacturers expand production project production, production capacity is gradually released, the tight balance of supply and demand at the end of Q2 will be alleviated, silicon material or will have a small margin, cell profitability or will rebound, will effectively drive the growth of demand for equipment.
Fourth, the analysis of key companies:
(1) Jiejia Weichuang: Multi-route layout is expected to benefit from the expansion process of the industry
Founded in 2007, Jiejia Weichuang is a leading national high-tech enterprise engaged in the research and development, production and sales of crystalline silicon solar cell equipment. The company relies on its own technical research and development strength in the field of solar cell equipment production industry position is prominent.
The company's main business for crystalline silicon solar cell equipment research and development, production and sales, the main products include PECVD and diffusion furnace and other semiconductor doped deposition process photovoltaic equipment, cleaning, etching, fleece and other wet process photovoltaic equipment and automation (supporting) equipment, automatic screen printing equipment and other crystalline silicon solar cell production process flow of the main and supporting equipment research and development, manufacturing and sales.
The company's revenue and net profit rose steadily. The company achieved revenue of 4.044 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 60% year-on-year, and achieved 3.745 billion yuan in the quarter of 2021Q1-Q3, an increase of 21.43% year-on-year, and revenue is expected to maintain growth in 2021. The company's net profit margin in 2020 was 12.93%, gross profit margin was 26.43%, compared with 2019, the net profit margin in the Q1-Q3 quarter of 2021 was 16.01%, the gross profit margin was 25.70%, the net profit margin increased compared with 2020, and the decline in gross profit margin slowed down.
According to the company's reply to investors in interactive easy, the company is accelerating the layout of the third generation of battery equipment, tubular PECVD is in the pilot line for mass production of the process debugging stage, the operation is in line with the company's expectations, and is also upgrading and optimization, the company's photovoltaic technology routes and overseas markets of new signing orders are increasing.
(2) Maiwei shares: the international leading enterprise of HJT equipment, taking the lead in benefiting from the expansion process of HJT
Founded in 2010, Maiwei Co., Ltd. is a high-end intelligent equipment manufacturer integrating mechanical design, electrical research, software algorithm development and precision manufacturing equipment. With years of excellent independent research and development capabilities, product quality and after-sales service system, the company has broken the monopoly of foreign manufacturers in the field of photovoltaic screen printing equipment, become a leading enterprise of photovoltaic screen printing equipment in the world, and realized the localization of photovoltaic screen printing and manufacturing equipment.
The main business of Maiwei Co., Ltd. is for the three major industries of solar photovoltaic, display and semiconductor, research and development, manufacturing and sales of intelligent high-end equipment, the main products include automatic solar cell screen printing production line, heterojunction high-efficiency battery manufacturing overall solution, OLED flexible screen laser cutting equipment, Mini/Micro LED wafer equipment, semiconductor wafer packaging equipment, etc.
The company's revenue and net profit have risen steadily, net profit margin and gross profit margin have continued to rise, and profitability is strong. The company achieved revenue of 2.285 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 59% year-on-year, and achieved 2.185 billion yuan in the quarter of 2021Q1-Q3, an increase of 35% year-on-year, and the revenue in 2021 is expected to maintain a high growth. The company's net profit margin in 2020 was 17.25%, gross profit margin was 34.02%, net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2021 was 20.39%, gross profit margin was 38.41%, net interest rate and gross profit margin continued to rise, profitability is strong.
(3) Deere Laser: the leader of photovoltaic laser equipment, continuous breakthrough in technology
Founded in 2008, Deere Laser is a national high-tech enterprise that develops precision laser processing supporting equipment and provides corresponding solution design. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of micro-nano laser precision processing for many years, in the field of high-efficiency solar cell route, PERC laser ablation equipment, SE laser doping equipment, the technical level is at the forefront of the industry, is one of the few enterprises in the industry that can provide high-efficiency solar cell laser processing integrated solutions.
The company's main business is the design of precision laser processing solutions and the research and development, production and sales of its supporting equipment. The company's main products are precision laser processing equipment used in the photovoltaic industry, the current main products include PERC laser ablation equipment, SE laser doping equipment, MWT series laser equipment, automatic high-speed laser scribing /splintering machine, LID/R laser repair equipment, laser boron expansion equipment and other laser equipment. Recently, the company has continued to make breakthroughs in the field of laser transfer, covering multiple process links such as PERC, MWT, SE, LID/R and other processes of high-efficiency solar cells, and PERC, IBC, SE, LID/R and other processes can be superimposed in the production process of high-efficiency solar cells.
The company's revenue and net profit rose steadily, and net profit margin and gross margin slowly declined but remained high. The company achieved revenue of 1.072 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 53% year-on-year, and achieved 935 million yuan in the quarter of 2021Q1-Q3, an increase of 31% year-on-year. The company's net profit margin in 2020 was 34.79%, gross profit margin was 46.54%, net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2021 was 30.12%, gross profit margin was 44.62%, net interest rate and gross profit margin declined, but the overall profitability is still strong.
Source: GF Securities