Source: Financial community
Recently, more than 60 cities across the country have introduced policies to stabilize the property market, market expectations have gradually improved, the margin of home appliance sales has improved, and the peak sales season in April has arrived, and the prosperity of the home appliance sector has rebounded. In addition, under the background of stable growth, steel, coal, etc. in the upstream resource products sector maintained a high degree of prosperity this week; the prosperity of midstream construction machinery and other prosperity showed marginal improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the white, black and kitchen appliances sectors with high correlation with real estate, the small household appliances sector driven by the "home economy", and the upstream construction machinery field with high prosperity upstream resources and marginal improvement of prosperity.
Core ideas
【This week's attention】The recent marginal relaxation of real estate policies and the arrival of the peak sales season, the sales of home appliance segments have gradually improved. Judging from the single-week data of Aowei, the sales of clothes dryers and dishwashers are good, the domestic sales of air conditioners are improving, and the external demand is stable; at the same time, with reference to the situation in 2020, the "home economy" is expected to further enhance the demand for small household appliances. The easing of real estate policies in many places across the country has been frequent, and the market expectations have gradually improved, and the superimposed April has entered the peak sales season, and the plate prosperity is expected to gradually improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the white electricity, black electricity, kitchen appliances sector with high correlation with real estate and the small household appliance sector driven by the "home economy".
【Information Technology】The price of 4GB 1600MHz DRAM memory fell week-on-week, and the prices of 32GB NAND flash memory and 64GB NAND flash memory remained unchanged.
【Midstream manufacturing】This Saturday, lithium fluorophosphate, cathode material electrolytic manganese, cobalt tetroxide prices fell, dimethyl carbonate, lithium materials and most cobalt product prices remained unchanged. This week, the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry rose slightly, the silicon wafer price index rose slightly, and the price index of modules, cells, silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon was flat with last week; the price of silicon materials and silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain fell, and the price of modules was flat with last week. Forklift sales in February increased significantly year-on-year, loaders, rollers, and internal combustion engines turned from negative to positive year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in truck cranes narrowed, and the year-on-year decline in bulldozer sales of major enterprises expanded. This week, china's export container freight index CCFI, China's coastal bulk freight price composite index CCBFI is down; this week's Baltic dry bulk index BDI is down, and the crude oil transport index BDTI is up.
【Consumer demand】This week, the price of fresh milk fell. This week, the price of piglets and pigs rose, and the price of pork fell; the profit loss of self-breeding pig breeding narrowed, and the breeding loss of purchased piglets expanded. Broiler fry and chicken prices rose. The vegetable price index was flat with last week, with corn futures settling upwards and cotton futures settling upwards. This week' box office revenue, number of moviegoers, and number of movie releases declined.
【Resource products】The 10-day average of construction steel turnover declined month-on-month. Iron ore, billet, rebar prices rose; the inventory of major steel varieties declined, the domestic port iron ore inventory declined, Tangshan steel billet inventory went up; Tangshan steel mill blast furnace operating rate was the same as last week, Tangshan steel mill capacity utilization rate declined. The settlement price of thermal coal futures is downward, and the settlement price of coke futures and coking coal futures is upward. Coal stocks in Qinhuangdao Port and Coking Coal in Jingtang Port declined, and coke stocks in Tianjin Port rose. Glass and cement price indices declined. Brent international crude oil prices fell and inventories fell. Most of the futures prices of organic chemicals fell, the prices of PVC, asphalt, PTA, and natural rubber rose, and the prices of methanol, diethylene glycol, polypropylene, xylene, etc. fell sharply. This week, industrial metal prices rose and fell, zinc, nickel, lead prices rose; inventories rose and fell, copper stocks increased more. This week, the spot price of gold rose and the spot price of silver rose.
【Financial Real Estate】 The net investment in the money market is 420 billion yuan, and the OVERNIGHT SHIBOR interest rate is rising. The A-share turnover rate is rising, and the daily turnover is down. This week, the premium rate of land transactions has declined, and the transaction area of commercial housing has risen.
【Utilities】The ex-factory price of mainland natural gas is rising, and the settlement price of British natural gas futures is down.
Risk Warning: Industrial support is less than expected, macroeconomic fluctuations
directory
01
This week's industry boom core changes are overview
1, this week's attention: home appliance sales are good, plate prosperity marginal improvement
The marginal relaxation of real estate policies and the arrival of the peak sales season, the sales of home appliance segments have gradually improved. Aowei single-week retail data, in recent weeks, the sales data of some segments of home appliances has been good, and W13 has seen online freezers, dryers and dishwashers rise by 16.66%, 20.21% and 14.09% year-on-year in a single week. In terms of cumulative data, the online sales volume of clothes dryers and floor washers increased by 64% and 65% respectively year-on-year; the online sales of integrated stoves, floor washers and dryers increased by 32.79%, 72.58% and 74.17% respectively year-on-year. In April, industry online data showed that the domestic sales of air conditioners improved, and the external demand was stable. In April 2022, the household air-conditioning industry scheduled production of about 16.82 million units, an increase of 5.4% over the same period last year; of which domestic sales increased by 14.9% over the same period last year, and exports increased by 5.3% over the same period last year.
The small household appliance sector may benefit from the closed epidemic prevention policy. Referring to the situation in 2020, the "home economy" or the demand for small household appliances brought a pull, in the first half of 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic, the implementation of home office in many places, driving the year-on-year growth rate of kitchen appliance sales is significantly higher than the historical center, 3-6 months kitchen appliance sales increased by 39.01%, 44.24%, 43.35%, 60.76% respectively. Recently, due to the impact of the epidemic, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places have successively adopted lockdown and epidemic prevention policies, and the "home economy" is expected to further promote the improvement of sales of small kitchen appliances. However, due to logistics obstruction in some areas, some demand may lag behind.
Many places across the country have issued real estate easing policies, market expectations have gradually repaired, and with the arrival of the peak sales season in April, the plate prosperity is expected to gradually improve. According to Zhongyuan Real Estate data, more than 60 cities have introduced policies to stabilize the property market. Among them, Quzhou in Zhejiang and Qinhuangdao in Hebei Province announced the cancellation of the real estate purchase restriction policy, and Zhengzhou, Harbin, Fuzhou and other places have relaxed the restriction on purchase and sale. This week, in the past 5 trading days, the real estate sector rose by 12.42%, the home appliance sector rose by 4.49%, of which white goods rose by 5.03%, kitchen appliances rose by 4.46%, black home appliances rose by 1.80%, and small household appliances rose by 1.17%, reflecting the market's strong expectations for plate repair. At the same time, considering that April entered the peak sales season, major enterprises are stepping up production scheduling and stockpiling, and the prosperity of the plate is expected to further improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the white electricity, black electricity, kitchen appliances sector with high correlation with real estate and the small household appliance sector driven by the "home economy".
2. Overview of the core changes in the industry's prosperity
02
Information technology industry
1, the memory price mostly remains unchanged
The price of 4GB 1600MHz DRAM memory fell week-on-week, while the prices of 32GB NAND flash memory and 64GB NAND flash memory remained unchanged. As of April 1, the 4GB 1600MHz DRAM price fell 1.61% week-on-week to $2.70; the 32GB NAND flash price remained unchanged at $2.14; and the 64GB NAND flash price remained unchanged at $3.98.
03
Midstream manufacturing
1, this Saturday lithium fluorophosphate prices fell, most cobalt materials and lithium material prices unchanged
On Saturday, the prices of lithium fluorophosphate, cathode material electrolytic manganese, and cobalt tetroxide fell, while the prices of dimethyl carbonate, lithium materials and most cobalt products remained unchanged. In terms of electrolytes, as of April 6, the price of DMC of electrolyte solvents remained at 5700 yuan / ton; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate fell by 5.05% week-on-week to 470,000 yuan / ton. In terms of cathode materials, as of April 6, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel Ni9996 rose by 1.54% weekly to 223500 yuan / ton; the average price of electrolytic manganese market fell by 2.66% week-on-week to 18300 yuan / ton. In terms of lithium raw materials, as of April 6, the price of electrolyte lithium manganate was maintained at 70,500 yuan / ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate in the electrolyte was maintained at 100,000 yuan / ton; the price of lithium hydroxide was maintained at 491,500 yuan / ton; the price of ternary materials was maintained at 370.95 yuan / kg; in cobalt products, as of April 6, the price of electrolytic cobalt was maintained at 557,000 yuan / ton; the price of tribalt tetroxide fell by 0.34% week-on-week to 441.5 yuan / kg; and the price of cobalt powder remained at 648 yuan / kg The price of cobalt oxide is maintained at 420 yuan / kg.
2, the photovoltaic industry composite price index rose slightly
This week, the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry rose slightly, the silicon wafer price index rose slightly, and the price index of modules, cells, silicon wafers and polysilicon was flat with last week. As of March 28, the composite price index of the photovoltaic industry was 55.20, up 0.02% from March 21; the component price index was 38.79, unchanged from the previous week; and the battery price index was 28.83, unchanged from last week. The wafer price index was 53.84, up 0.04% from March 21; the polysilicon price index was 154.18, unchanged from last week.
This week, the price of silicon materials and wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain fell, and the price of modules was flat with last week. In terms of silicon materials, as of March 28, the price of domestic polysilicon materials was 39.07 US dollars / kg, down 0.09% from last week; the price of imported polysilicon materials was 39.07 US dollars / kg, down 0.09% from last week. In terms of modules, as of March 23, the price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules was 0.21 US dollars / watt, unchanged from last week; the price of thin-film photovoltaic modules was 0.23 US dollars / watt, unchanged from last week. In terms of silicon wafers, as of March 23, the price of polycrystalline silicon wafers was 0.31 US dollars / piece, down 0.32% from last week.
In March and February, the sales volume of forklift trucks of major enterprises increased significantly year-on-year, and the sales of bulldozers, road rollers, and internal combustion engines improved
Forklift sales in February increased significantly year-on-year, loaders, rollers, and internal combustion engines turned from negative to positive year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in truck cranes narrowed, and the year-on-year decline in bulldozer sales of major enterprises expanded.
In February, the sales volume of bulldozers of major enterprises fell by 5.48% year-on-year (previous value - 5.15%); the sales of forklift trucks of major enterprises increased by 71.30% year-on-year in the month, an increase of 59.60 percentage points over the previous month; the sales of truck cranes of major enterprises decreased by 39.20% year-on-year in the same month, narrowing by 18.50 percentage points from the previous month.
In February, the sales volume of rollers of major enterprises was worth 1204 units in the month, an increase of 58 units over the previous month, an increase of 0.42% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive, up 106% from the same period in 2020. The cumulative value of sales in January and February was 2382 units, a cumulative decrease of 1.49% year-on-year, a decline of 4.50 percentage points narrower than the previous value, and an increase of 60% over the same period in 2020.
4. CCFI, CCBFI, BDI are down week-on-week, and BDTI is rising week-on-week
This week, China's export container freight index CCFI and China's coastal bulk freight price composite index CCBFI declined. In terms of domestic shipping, as of April 1, China's export container freight price composite index CCFI fell 2.14% week-on-week to 3204.8 points; China's coastal bulk freight price composite index CCBFI fell 4.29% week-on-week to 1194.93 points. This week the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI fell, and the Crude Oil Transport Index BDTI rose. In terms of international shipping, as of April 6, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI was 2213.0 points, down 8.44% from last week, and the crude oil transport index BDTI was 1469.0 points, up 26.31% from last week.
04
Consumer demand boom observation
1. The price of fresh milk in the main producing areas is downward
Raw milk prices in the main producing areas fell. As of March 23, the price of fresh milk in the main producing areas was reported at 4.18 yuan / kg, down 0.24% week-on-week and down 2.11% from the same period last year.
2, pig prices are rising, and the vegetable price index is flat with last week
This week, piglet and hog prices rose, and pork prices fell. As of April 1, the average price of piglets in 22 provinces and cities was 24.73 yuan / kg, up 1.48% week-on-week; the average price of live pigs was 12.23 yuan / kg, up 0.91% week-on-week; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.92 yuan / kg, down 0.05% week-on-week. In terms of pig breeding profits, the loss of self-breeding pig breeding decreased this week, and the loss of purchased piglet breeding increased. As of April 1, the profit of self-breeding pig breeding was -531.05 yuan / head, up 18.16 yuan / head from last week; the profit of purchased piglet breeding was -292.39 yuan / head, down 5.36 yuan / head from last week.
In terms of broiler breeding, the price of broiler fry is up, and the price of chicken is up. As of April 1, the average price of broiler fry in the main producing areas was 1.48 yuan / feather, up 68.18% week-on-week; as of April 2, the average retail price of chicken in 36 cities was 12.73 yuan / 500 grams, up 0.32% week-on-week.
The vegetable price index was flat with last week, with cotton futures settling upwards and corn futures settling upwards. As of April 5, China's Shouguang Vegetable Price Index was 196.29, unchanged from last week; as of April 5, cotton futures settled at 137.53 cents/lb, up 0.53% week-on-week; corn futures settled at 759.75 cents/bushel, down 4.61% week-on-week.
3. The box office revenue of the film is declining
This week' box office revenue, number of moviegoers, and number of movie releases declined. As of April 3, this week's film box office revenue was 128 million yuan, down 23.4% week-on-week; the number of moviegoers was 3.57 million, down 22.22% week-on-week; and the movie was released 1.1891 million times, down 1.6% week-on-week.
05
High-frequency tracking of resource products
1, steel turnover downward, iron ore prices upwards
The 10-day average of construction steel turnover declined week-on-week. According to Mysteel data, the mainstream traders' national construction steel trading volume was 175,700 tons on April 2; from the perspective of the moving average of the past ten days, the mainstream traders' national construction steel trading volume averaged 151,700 tons in ten days, down 8.2% week-on-week.
This week, the price of iron ore, steel billet and rebar rose; the main steel varieties, domestic port iron ore inventory declined, Tangshan steel billet inventory rose; Tangshan steel mill blast furnace operating rate was the same as last week, Tangshan steel mill capacity utilization rate fell week by week. In terms of output, as of March 20, the average daily output of crude steel in key enterprises was 2.0493 million tons / day, an increase of 4.61% month-on-month, and the estimated daily output of crude steel in the country was 2.6586 million tons / day, an increase of 4.15% month-on-month. In terms of prices, as of April 6, the price of rebar was 5166.00 yuan / ton, up 2.01% week-on-week; as of April 1, the price of steel billet was 4904.00 yuan / ton, up 1.24% week-on-week; as of April 1, the iron ore price index was 566.59, up 4.41% week-on-week. In terms of inventory, as of March 31, the domestic port iron ore inventory was 153.90 million tons, down 0.83% week-on-week; as of March 31, Tangshan steel billet inventory was 250,000 tons, up 24.56% week-on-week; as of April 1, the inventory of major steel varieties fell by 1.29% week-on-week to 16.8617 million tons. In terms of production capacity, as of April 1, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan Steel Mill was 52.38%, unchanged from last week; the capacity utilization rate of Tangshan Steel Mill was 67.27%, down 3.41 percentage points from last week.
2. Thermal coal futures prices are downward, and coking coal and coke futures prices are rising
In terms of prices, the quotation of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port fell week-on-week, and the price increase of the main coking coal depot in Jingtang Port and Shanxi was the same as last week; the settlement price of thermal coal futures fell, and the settlement price of coke futures and coking coal futures rose. As of April 4, the price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port was 1369.83 yuan / ton, down 13.72% week-on-week; as of April 4, the main coking coal depot in Jingtang Port Shanxi raised 3350.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. As of April 6, the settlement price of coke futures closed at 4034.00 yuan / ton, up 5.41% week-on-week; the settlement price of coking coal futures closed at 3213.00 yuan / ton, up 1.65% week-on-week; the settlement price of thermal coal futures was 810.00 yuan / ton, down 1.84% week-on-week. As of March 21, the daily consumption of power plants in the eight southern provinces was 1.89 million tons, up 1.60% month-on-month.
In terms of inventory, the coking coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port and Jingtang Port fell this week, and the coke inventory of Tianjin Port rose. As of April 1, Qinhuangdao Port coal inventory reported 5.01 million tons, down 0.99% week-on-week; as of April 1, Jingtang Port coking coal inventory reported 1.30 million tons, down 5.11% week-on-week; Tianjin Port coke inventory reported 30.00 million tons, up 7.14% week-on-week.
3. The national cement price index is downward, and the cement price index in a few regions is rising
In terms of cement prices, the national cement price index fell this week, the cement price index in the northwest region rose, and the cement price index in the northeast, east China, southwest China, the Yangtze River, central south china and north China fell. As of April 2, The national cement price index was 172.51 points, down 0.20% week-on-week; the yangtze river cement price index fell 0.63% week-on-week to 173.84 points; the northeast cement price index was 156.09 points, unchanged from last week; the north China cement price index was 179.67 points, down 0.09% week-on-week; the east China cement price index was 174.94 points, down 0.42% week-on-week; the northwest cement price index was 171.85 points, up 3.78% week-on-week; and the southwest cement price index fell 1.25% to 155.32 points week-on-week The cement price index in central and southern China was 175.23 points, down 0.49% week-on-week. As of March 20, the float glass market price was 2249.60 yuan / ton, down 6.14% month-on-month.
4, Brent international crude oil prices fell, chemical prices fell mostly
Brent international crude oil prices fell and inventories fell. As of April 5, 2022, brent crude oil spot prices fell 4.09% week-on-week to $107.85/b, and WTI crude oil prices fell 2.19% to $101.96/b. On the supply side, as of April 1, 2022, the number of U.S. rigs was 673 for the week, an increase of 0.45% from the previous week, and as of March 25, 2022, the national commercial crude oil inventory was down 0.83% week-on-week to 410 million barrels.
Most of the futures prices of inorganic chemicals rose, and sulfuric acid rose significantly. As of April 2, the average price of titanium dioxide market was flat compared with last week at 19800.0 yuan / ton. As of April 6, the settlement price of soda ash futures rose by 1.48% from last week to 2872.00 yuan / ton. As of April 3, the average price of acetic acid market rose by 1.98% from last week to 4966.67 yuan / ton; as of March 20, the national sulfuric acid price rose by 13.05% week-on-week to 698.20 yuan / ton.
Most of the futures prices of organic chemicals fell, the prices of PTA, natural rubber, and asphalt rose, and the prices of methanol, toluene, xylene, diethylene glycol, polyethylene, polypropylene, etc. fell significantly. As of April 6, the settlement price of methanol was 2948.0 yuan / ton, down 1.60% from last week;P VC futures settlement price rose 0.95% to 9391.0 yuan / ton; fuel oil settlement price rose 0.75% to 3911.0 yuan / ton; polypropylene settlement price was 8815.0 yuan / ton, down 2.64% from last week; diethylene glycol settlement price was 5010.00 yuan / ton, down 5.14% from last week; phthalic anhydride futures settlement price fell 0.76% to 8700.0 yuan / ton The settlement price of octanol was 12758.33 yuan / ton, down 0.60% from last week;D OP futures settlement price was 12670.0 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from last week; xylene settlement price was down 2.54% to 7261.0 yuan / ton; the price of pure benzene was flat with last week, at 8597.22 yuan / ton; styrene futures settlement price was 9418.75 yuan / ton, down 0.91% from last week.
5. Industrial metal prices and inventories rise and fall
This week, industrial metal prices rose and fell, zinc prices rose more largely; inventories rose and fell. As of April 6, tin prices fell 0.43% from last week to 348600.0 yuan / ton; cobalt prices fell 0.35% from last week to 564,000.0 yuan / ton; lead prices 15875.0 yuan / ton, up 0.95% week-on-week; aluminum prices fell 1.10% week-on-week to 22480.0 yuan / ton; copper prices fell 74050.0 yuan / ton, down 0.09% week-on-week; the Yangtze River nonferrous market zinc prices were 27470.0 yuan / ton, Week-on-week upward 3.12%; Yangtze River non-ferrous nickel prices rose 0.87% week-on-week to 221300.0 yuan / ton.
In terms of inventory, as of April 5, LME tin stocks fell 15.27% week-on-week to 1915.0 tons; LME lead stocks rose 1.55% this week to 39325.0 tons; LME zinc stocks fell 5.71% this week to 134125.0 tons; LME aluminum stocks fell 6.02% from last week to 623325.0 tons; LME copper stocks rose 17.76% from last week to 95975.0 tons; LME nickel stocks rose 72924.0 tons, 0.40% from last week.
Spot prices for gold and silver rose this week. As of April 5, the London gold spot price was $1944.05/oz, up 1.78% week-on-week; the London silver spot price closed at $24.68/oz, up 0.14% from last week; the COMEX gold futures closed at $1926.60/oz, 0.43% higher than last week; and the COMEX silver futures closed down 1.85% to $24.45/oz.
06
Financial real estate industry
1. The net investment in the money market is 420 billion yuan, and the overnight SHIBOR interest rate is rising
The money market netted $420 billion this week, with overnight SHIBOR rates rising. As of April 6, overnight SHIBOR was up 29bps to 1.85% from last week, 1 week SHIBOR was down 17bps to 2.00% from last week, and 2 week SHIBOR was down 38bps to 2.02% from last week. As of April 2, the one-day interbank offered rate was down 65bps to 1.36% from the previous week, the 7-day interbank offered rate was down 40bps to 2.00% from last week, and the 14-day interbank offered rate was down 57bps to 1.96%. In terms of the money market, as of April 1, the money market put 615 billion yuan last week, the money market returned 195 billion yuan, and the money market net invested 420 billion yuan. On the exchange rate side, as of April 6, the dollar was trading at a midpoint of 6.3799 against the renminbi, slightly stronger than the renminbi last week.
The yield of 1-month/6-month wealth management products was flat compared with last week. As of April 3, the expected yield of one-month wealth management products was flat at 1.88% from last week. The expected yield of 6-month wealth management products is 2.10%, unchanged from last week.
2. The A-share turnover rate is upward, and the daily turnover is downward
The A-share turnover rate is rising, and the daily turnover is down. As of April 1, the shanghai A-share turnover rate was 0.89%, 0.0232 percentage points higher than last week; the total daily turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen markets fell, and the total daily turnover of the two cities was 905.611 billion yuan, down 1.77% from last week.
In terms of bond yields, the yield to maturity of the 6-month/1-year/3-year Treasury note is down from last week. As of April 1, the yield to maturity of the 6-month Treasury note was down 12bp to 2.00% from the previous week; the yield to maturity of the 1-year Treasury was down 4bp from last week to 2.14%, and the yield to maturity of the 3-year Treasury was 2.40% lower than last week. The 5-year bond maturity spread was 1bp to 0.43% higher than last week; the 10-year bond maturity spread was 4bp to 0.67% from last week; the 1-year AAA bond credit spread was down 1bp from last week to 0.52%; and the 10-year AAA bond credit spread was 2bp to 1.03% higher than last week.
3. This week, the land transaction premium rate declined, and the transaction area of commercial housing rose
This week, the premium rate of land transactions declined, and the transaction area of commercial housing rose. As of April 3, the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 1.44%, down 3.32 percentage points from last week; the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2.5014 million square meters in the week, up 11.45% from last week.
07
utility
1, the mainland natural gas ex-factory price upwards, the British natural gas futures price downward
The ex-factory price of mainland natural gas fell, and the settlement price of British natural gas futures rose. As of April 2, the ex-factory price of mainland natural gas was quoted at 8213.0 yuan / ton, 0.44% higher than last week; as of April 5, the SETTLEMENT price of British natural gas futures closed at 242.. 24p/sem, down 15.47% from last week.
On the supply side, as of March 25, 48 U.S. states had 1,415 billion cubic feet of available natural gas stocks, up 1.87 percent from last week. As of April 1, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 138, an increase of one from the previous week.