Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
The latest Financial Data released by the central bank in February, a number of media and investment institutions believe that it is "weak", but some investment institutions are still optimistic about the valuation repair of the banking sector, why?
In mid-March, the central bank released its financial statistics for February 2022. The data shows: "Social financing and RMB loans in the month of February were 1.19 trillion yuan and 1.23 trillion yuan year-on-year, respectively, not only 1.03 trillion yuan and 0.22 trillion yuan lower than expected, but also 0.53 trillion yuan and 0.13 trillion yuan less than the same period last year." ”
Some media analysis said: "The scale of the new social financing regulations in February this year is not only lower than the same period in 2021, but also lower than the same period in 2018 and 2015. ”
By sector, household loans fell by 336.9 billion yuan in February, of which short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan. At the same time, medium- and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 0.51 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 0.59 trillion yuan year-on-year.
For the recently released Financial Data for February, both the media and investment institutions considered it "weak".
Some media pointed out: "The small increase in short-term loans for residents year-on-year confirms the weakness of the consumer side." The decline in medium- and long-term loans for residents, which is the first time since there are historical data, that the medium- and long-term loans of residents have declined, indicating that the repayment amount in the personal housing field is much greater than the amount of investment, that is, the current sales side of the real estate industry is very unsatisfactory. ”
Some investment institutions believe that "the weak demand for real estate and the lack of willingness of enterprises to invest reflected in the financial data in February are the 'hidden worries' for the mainland to achieve the 5.5% economic growth target." ”
Although the financial data in February is weak, our determination to stabilize growth is certain, how will the policy be strengthened next?
The direction of stable growth is clear, and stable credit still needs to be exerted. Northeast Securities proposed: "Based on the GDP growth target of 5.5%, as well as 'increase the implementation of prudent monetary policy', 'expand the scale of new loans' and other contents, the government released a clear signal to resist the downward pressure of the economy and promote high-quality development, and then the probability of the central bank further stimulating credit demand through the corresponding monetary policy will increase, and the trend of real estate policy relaxation will continue." ”
The establishment of a broad credit direction is more important. Northeast Securities believes that "combined with the relevant policy guidelines proposed by the "two sessions" and the implementation of more policies that directly reach the real economy, as well as the central bank's overridden of more than one trillion yuan of balance profits to provide financial support, all reflect the determination and strength of the policy side for wide credit and stable growth. Under this firm determination, we believe that there is no need to worry too much about the rhythm of credit growth, the importance of the initial direction of wide credit is higher than the rhythm of the fast and slow, under the guidance of firm determination and clear direction, we are optimistic about the follow-up monetary policy, fiscal policy, industrial policy synergy, superimposed on the current historical bottom of the banking sector Valuation level and the catalysis of the good performance of many banks, optimistic about the valuation repair of the banking sector. ”
CICC's statement is more clear: "The depth of stocks of some leading banks has been adjusted to the low level in recent years, which reflects the concentrated release of risk aversion in addition to the fundamental impact." At the same time, it is recommended that investors choose regional banks with greater regional economic growth potential or where existing wealth is concentrated. ”
In February, the banking sector ushered in a wave of upward movements. In March, under the influence of risk aversion from all parties, the depth of A-shares adjusted, and the banking sector also fell. In the future, under the expectation of stable growth and wide credit, can the valuation of the banking sector be quickly repaired and continue to stabilize in the upward channel? It remains to be observed.
(Image source: Internet)