Introduction: On the surface, Russia and Ukraine are fighting, but in fact, the confrontation between major countries, the impact on the stock market is not generally large; the performance of auto stocks in the past two weeks is an example, as if the unified opening of the refresh low mode.
【Key Points】
· The stock price of the dealer group sector fell by an average of 8.71% in one week, the largest decline, and the collective turned green;
· Passenger cars and parts sectors fell by more than 7%, of which the former's market value shrank by more than 200 billion yuan;
· The new energy & intelligent sector fell by an average of 5.43%, and the market value shrank by 100 billion;
· The commercial vehicle segment fell 4.68 percent, with a market value cut of $9.5 billion.
In the 10th week of 2022, there were confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic in many parts of the country, and the number of infections in Jilin, Shandong and other provinces increased rapidly, and the rebound of the epidemic once again made the people of the whole country tense their nerves; and the continuous War between Russia and Ukraine made the stock market worse.
This week, the auto stocks registered in the auto K-line statistics are still mainly falling, only 4 of the 78 stocks have struggled to turn red, the overall stock price fell by 6.62%, and the market value shrank by 394.3 billion yuan.
This means that in just half a month in March, the auto stock market value evaporated by more than 1 trillion yuan!
In the broader market, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Hang Seng Index all extended their declines, closing down 4%, 4.4% and 6.17% respectively as of March 11, and auto stocks continued to drag down the broader market.
From the overall list, Evergrande Automobile, Desay SV, Ankai Bus and CATL became the only four stocks to rise in this period, but the increase was relatively limited, and the highest increase was only 9%.
In terms of decline, U.S. stocks and H-shares have become the hardest hit areas, and the top 9 declines are all covered by them. Among them, the US stocks Xiaopeng Automobile, Autohome and Ideal Automobile entered the top three of the decline; at the same time, Ganfeng Lithium H-shares, Autohome H-shares, Weilai, Geely Automobile, Meidong Automobile, and Zhengtong Automobile all fell by more than 10% in a week.
Below, the automotive candlestick divides the stocks on the record into five major sectors and analyzes them one by one.
01 Passenger cars: Xiaopeng Automobile's double shares reached a new low, and Wei's return to Hong Kong was cold
In the 10th week of 2022, the stock prices of 18 listed companies in the (passenger car) vehicle sector fell by an average of 7.45%, and the market value shrank by 218.087 billion yuan; of which only Evergrande Automobile turned red, up 9%, and the stock rebounded from March 9.
At the beginning of March, Hengchi New Energy Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., which is 100% owned by Evergrande Automobile, was established, and its business scope includes a licensed business project, that is, the online ride-hailing business, in addition to the sales of new energy vehicles and parts, which is inevitably speculated to be paving the way for the future to push up the delivery volume.
Up to now, Evergrande Automobile has not yet set a milestone in delivery, so strictly speaking, it has not really entered the fiercely competitive new energy vehicle track.
In addition to Evergrande Automobile, the passenger car sector turned green last week, of which Xiaopeng Automobile, Ideal Automobile and Weilai three US stocks ranked in the top three, with a one-week decline of 22.42%, 18.58% and 13.74% respectively, and the total market value evaporated by more than 90 billion yuan.
Specifically, although Xiaopeng Automobile rose by 10% on March 9, it could not help but explore all the remaining trading days, and the stock refreshed the 52-week minimum of $22.62 / share on the 11th, and finally closed at $22.91 / share.
Recently, Xiaopeng Automobile was exposed to suspected "brake failure" and hit the wall, resulting in a fracture of the passenger's right wrist. In this regard, the relevant person in charge of Xiaopeng Automobile said that when the vehicle was in an accident, it was in a state of full electric door acceleration and had no brake marks; however, the customer did not recognize this explanation, and Xiaopeng Automobile also expressed its willingness to cooperate with the customer for third-party testing.
Automotive safety, especially the safety of new energy vehicles, has always attracted much attention. Whether it is a foreign predator Tesla, or a new domestic car-making force, or a new energy vehicle sector of traditional car companies, safety should always be the sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of car companies.
Xiaopeng Automobile H shares also weakened last week, falling more than 9%, and on March 9, it hit a 52-week low of HK$96.1 per share, falling below HK$100.
Looking at the ideal car, last week the US stock fell 18.58%, H shares fell slightly 0.29%.
On the news side, on March 9, Ideal Auto officially announced its second model, the Ideal L9, which may bring a wave of stock price increases.
The new car will be launched at the 2022 Beijing Auto Show; depending on the model configuration, the price range will be between 450,000 and 500,000 yuan, compared with the ideal ONE, the price of the new car is about 100,000 yuan higher.
Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao said that although the ideal L9 is priced higher than expected, it will limit the size of the consumer group to some extent, but it may also alleviate investors' concerns that the ideal ONE sales share is being eroded, so it still gives the ideal car an "overweight" rating with a target price of $49; CICC gives the stock a target price of $39.
As of the close of trading on March 11, ideal auto U.S. stocks closed at $22.17 per share, and H shares were quoted at 104.6 Hong Kong dollars per share.
For NIO, the most important thing is that it officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 10. However, Wei's return to Hong Kong was cold, closing down 0.69% on the first day of listing; the second day continued to close sharply by 7.87% (from next week, the auto K line will include NIO H shares in the statistical scope).
At this point, the three forces of China's listing in the United States and car manufacturing have gathered in Hong Kong stocks, but the difference is that Weilai cannot achieve financing this time; coupled with the fact that sales are squeezed out of the first camp, the pressure on Weilai is really not small, depending on the follow-up product performance.
In addition to the poor trend of new car-making forces last week, traditional car companies such as Geely, Great Wall, Changan, BYD, and Dongfeng Group are also difficult to "preserve", and many shares are refreshed or close to the lowest in 52 weeks.
02 Dealers: the whole line turned green, and the multi-share refresh was low
In the 10th week of 2022, the stock price of the auto dealer group segment fell by an average of 8.71%, the largest decline; the market value shrank by about 21 billion yuan, and all 12 stocks declined.
Among them, Guanghui Baoxin fell by 3.45%, refreshing the 52-week low of HK$0.5 per share on March 9; the huge group fell by 3.85%; Harmony Automobile fell by 4.27%, which is three stocks with a decline of less than 5%.
At the same time, Autohome's U.S. stocks and H shares bottomed out with 18.7% and 14.13% declines respectively, and as of the close of trading on March 11, they were quoted at $22.3/share and HK$47.4/share, respectively, with a combined market capitalization reduction of about $7.3 billion. Among them, the US stock market refreshed the 52-week minimum of 22.23 US dollars / share on March 11, and the H shares also refreshed the 52-week minimum of 45.8 Hong Kong dollars / share.
In addition, Meidong Automobile and Zhengtong Automobile both fell by more than 10%, both of which refreshed the 52-week minimum of HK$28.9/share and HK$0.27/share in the week, while Yongda Automobile, Guanghui Automobile and Zhongsheng Holdings also had the same rhythm and refreshed the low in unison.
According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association on March 10, the comprehensive inventory index of automobile dealers in February was 1.85, up 26.7% month-on-month and 10.1% year-on-year, and the inventory level was above the warning line.
The epidemic spread in many places will undoubtedly hinder consumers' enthusiasm for entering the store, and the dealer group sector is expected to still face greater pressure next week.
03 New energy & intelligence: Ganfeng Lithium led the decline in dual stocks, and the market value of the plate evaporated by nearly 110 billion
In the 10th week of 2022, the 22 individual stocks involved in the 21 new energy & intelligent related listed companies were mainly down. Among them, the stock price growth of only Desay SV, Ningde era, the remaining 20 stock prices have declined, the average price of a week fell by 5.43%, the cumulative market value of 109.872 billion yuan.
Specifically, Desay SV led the sector with a weekly gain of 2.2%, while ranking second in the overall list of gains; as of the close of March 11, the stock was quoted at 120.2 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of the week increased to 66.744 billion yuan.
On March 11, Desay SV issued a statement that starting in 2022, Desay SV began to deploy SIP - a vehicle specification-level business that integrates design and manufacturing development, and is expected to be put into production in August, which marks the beginning of Desay SV's expansion into the field of system-level packaging.
It is reported that Desay SV is also the first company in the domestic automotive electronics field to deploy SIP business.
Desay SV said it will continue to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to build industry-leading, high-precision and high-stability fully automated SIP wires, with an annual production capacity expected to exceed 1.5 million units within two years.
In addition, CATL ranked second in the sector with a weekly increase of 0.36%, and the fourth in the overall list; as of the close of march 11, the stock was reported at 493.55 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of the week increased to 1.15 trillion yuan.
On March 11, the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released monthly data showing that in February this year, CATL ranked first in the domestic power battery installed capacity with an installed capacity of 6.57GWh, accounting for 48.02%.
In terms of declines, Ganfeng Lithium H/A shares led the sector with weekly declines of 15.52% and 9.9% respectively, of which H shares ranked fourth in the overall list of declines; as of March 11, H shares were quoted at 102.3 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of one week shrank by 27.025 billion Hong Kong dollars to 147.054 billion Hong Kong dollars; A shares reported 127.45 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of one week shrank by 20.124 billion to 183.207 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that ganfeng lithium double stock fell sharply, mainly due to the sharp decline in lithium ore concept stocks on the 8th. On the same day, Ganfeng Lithium's H/A share price fell by 10.51% and 9.28% respectively.
On the news side, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to rise, and the recent quotation has exceeded 500,000 yuan / ton. There are rumors that some domestic cathode factories have called for a joint resistance to the rise in lithium prices in a non-buying manner, but the news has not been confirmed.
Analysts said that due to the continuous popularity of the lithium battery industry chain, the upstream raw materials continue to rise in price, continuing to squeeze the profit margins of the downstream industrial chain. The industrial layout of the industry's leading enterprises is relatively perfect, which can affect the pricing power of the industry to a certain extent, but the related industries that are not controlled will be restricted. At present, the market as a whole is in the stage of killing valuation, and rumors have caused market funds to panic and flee.
It is worth noting that recently, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the press conference of the State New Office that this year will focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerating the development progress of domestic lithium, nickel and other resources, and cracking down on unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging. At the same time, improve the power battery recycling system, support efficient dismantling, recycling and other technical research, and continuously improve the recycling rate and resource utilization efficiency.
Or affected by this, Tianqi Lithium industry fell to a halt on the same day. At the same time, it also made Tianqi Lithium rank third in the sector with a weekly decline of 9.36%, as of March 11, the stock was reported at 84.02 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank by 12.821 billion yuan to 124.106 billion yuan.
Overall, the sector's performance remains weak, and such performance may not improve until tensions ease.
03 Parts: Green across the board
In the 10th week of 2022, the 10 individual stocks involved in the 9 parts listed companies were all green, and the average stock price fell by 7.61% in one week, and the market value shrank by 35.835 billion yuan.
Specifically, Sanhua Intelligent Holdings led the sector with a weekly decline of 10.89%, and by the close of trading on March 11, the stock was quoted at 17.11 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank by 7.506 billion yuan to 61.446 billion yuan.
On March 9, Sanhua Intelligent Holdings announced the 2021 performance express, during the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating income of 15.971 billion yuan, an increase of 31.88% year-on-year; achieved operating profit of 1.990 billion yuan, an increase of 16.93% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.682 billion yuan, an increase of 15.02% year-on-year; basic earnings per share of 0.47 yuan.
The announcement shows that the performance growth is mainly due to the company's refrigeration and air conditioning electrical parts business during the reporting period to adhere to customer orientation, optimize the product structure, maintain stable growth and continue to develop in the direction of high-efficiency frequency conversion and multi-connection. Relying on the sharp increase in demand for new energy vehicle thermal management products, the company's auto parts business actively expands high-quality customers and high-quality orders to achieve rapid growth of auto parts business.
On the same day, Sanhua Intelligent Control also announced the operating results of January and February, and from January to February, the company achieved a total operating income of about 3.06 billion yuan, an increase of about 40% year-on-year; and achieved a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of about 290 million yuan, an increase of about 30% year-on-year.
In addition, except for Dongan Power, which fell by 4.25%, the remaining stock prices fell between 5% and 10%. Among them, Huayu Automobile ranked second with a decline of 9.6%, and Linglong Tire ranked third with a decline of 8.81%.
05 Commercial vehicles: a large area of greenery, Ankai bus once showed alone
In the 10th week of 2022, the 13 stocks involved in the 12 commercial vehicle sectors as a whole were mainly down, with an average decline of 4.68% in the week, and the cumulative market value shrank by 9.554 billion yuan. Among them, only Ankai Bus achieved growth, and the remaining 12 stocks declined.
Specifically, Ankai Bus became the only "survivor" in the sector with a weekly increase of 1.48%, and as of the close of trading on March 11, it closed at 4.11 yuan / share, and its market value increased to 3.014 billion yuan.
On the evening of March 4, Ankai Bus issued a production and sales announcement, achieving production of 216 vehicles and achieving sales of 193 vehicles in February; from January to February, the cumulative output of 641 vehicles, an increase of 28.46% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume of 580 vehicles, an increase of 12.84% year-on-year. This performance is not easy in the bus company.
In terms of declines, Jiangling Motors led the sector with a weekly decline of 9.11%, and as of the close of trading on March 11, it closed at 14.07 yuan / share, and its market value shrank to 12.145 billion yuan.
On March 10, Jiangling Motors and XCMG held a signing ceremony for a strategic cooperation agreement in Nanchang. The two sides reached a strategic cooperation, and XCMG Will purchase 2,500 special chassis for Jiangling Motors in 2022.
Or affected by this, Jiangling Motors terminated the trend of falling for three consecutive days last week, and on the 10th and 11th, Jiangling Motors' stock price rose, but it still did not reverse its overall decline.
In addition, Dongfeng Motor and Yaxing Bus ranked second and third in the sector with weekly declines of 7.54% and 7.11% respectively, and as of the close of trading on March 11, respectively, they closed at 5.64 yuan / share and 7.32 yuan / share, and the weekly market value shrank to 11.28 billion yuan and 2.094 billion yuan, respectively.
On March 11, Dongfeng Motor announced that Xiangyang City intends to allocate a total of 1.148 billion yuan to the company for the subsidy liquidation of new energy vehicle promotion and application subsidies in 2016-2019. On March 10, 2022, the company received the first batch of subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles with a liquidation fund of 248 million yuan.
Yaxing Bus released a production and sales express report on March 11, in February this year, its production and sales were 94 and 119 vehicles, down 23% and 45% year-on-year, respectively; from January to February, the cumulative production and sales were 260 and 228, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7% in production and a year-on-year decline of 6%.
Views of Autoskline：
As there is still no obvious signal of improvement in the international situation, in the 10th week of 2022, China's auto stocks still ended with a large-scale green performance.
Starting this week, there will be listed companies releasing 2021 financial reports, when can auto stocks break through the haze brought by the international situation and achieve stock price turnover? Or can the international situation send a better signal to boost stock market confidence? We'll see.