Zhitong Finance APP was informed that the automobile team of CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report saying that the short-term allocation of the automobile sector may gradually appear, the main reasons are: first, the short-term dimension, the sales data in March/April is expected to improve, pessimistic expectations or gradually repaired, and the valuation of the plate has been adjusted; second, the competitiveness of domestic strong independent brand car companies continues to increase, and the trend of increasing market share in the medium and long term is relatively clear, especially in 2022 is expected to usher in a strong new model product cycle; third, under the expectation of stable economic growth in 2022, Automobile terminal consumer demand is expected to improve, the impact of the "lack of core" on the superimposed supply side is weakened, and the boom is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year; fourth, under the trend of strengthening consumption attributes and electric intelligence, the functional upgrading of parts and components and the demand for incremental links are expected to open up new growth space, focusing on the independent breaking of subdivisions such as seat interiors, integrated die-casting and connectors.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities said that the whole vehicle recommends Great Wall Motor (601633.SH), Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), etc., and parts recommend Jingda (600577.SH), Huide Technology (603192.SH), Xinquan (603179.SH), Wencan (603348.SH), Jifeng (603997.SH) and other targets.
The core ideas are as follows:
Fundamental Tracking: The post-holiday market recovery is in line with expectations
According to the statistics of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, from February 14 to 20, the passenger car market retailed 329,000 units (+67% year-on-year) and 433,000 units wholesale (+142% year-on-year); the cumulative retail sales in the month were 670,000 units (-5% year-on-year, -47% month-on-month), and 790,000 units were wholesale (+26% year-on-year, -33% month-on-month). We believe that the retail market demand with the arrival of the car purchase period before the school season to pick up better, the wholesale end of the manufacturer due to the existence of replenishment demand, the level of production capacity recovered rapidly, so it brought about a rapid recovery in wholesale sales, we predict that the Industry data in February should be more in line with expectations.
Market tracking: The plate market has stabilized at the bottom, focusing on the repair of pessimistic expectations of data
So far this year, the sector or due to changes in market style and economic expectations and other factors have adjusted, this week the market has rebounded, SW automotive industry index fell 0.2%, slightly better than the market, of which passenger cars and auto parts sector +0.1% and +0.0% respectively. We believe that from the perspective of marginal changes in the boom trend, the valuation and cost performance of the auto sector have gradually emerged: (1) under the action of the triple factors of low inventory, lack of core mitigation and stable growth, the automotive industry boom is expected to rise in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of Q2 sales is expected to achieve a positive, and the consumption boost in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate the upward trend; (2) The certainty of high growth in demand for new energy vehicles is still strengthening, the endogenous growth momentum of the industry is strong, and bydir and Wei Xiaoli and other strong independent continued to benefit from the electrification trend.
In 2022, the functional configuration of new models will be upgraded again, and the car intelligence may be accelerated
The growth space of the auto parts industry mainly comes from the upgraded configuration of consumer functions, the increase in the value of single car supporting brought by electric intelligent pure incremental components, the acceleration of new configurations of seats, empty suspensions, car machines, micro motors and other parts in 2021, the new configuration application of Tesla's new models or remodeled models in 2022 is expected to continue to strengthen the trend of consumption upgrades, and supporting suppliers are expected to fully benefit from its strong sales performance (Tesla's global sales of 936,000 vehicles in 2021, an increase of 87% year-on-year). In addition, in 2022, the L2+ level intelligent driving of passenger cars and intelligent cockpits are expected to accelerate penetration, and the listing of intelligent configurations of new models may become an important catalyst, and the market's awareness of intelligent vehicles is expected to be significantly strengthened.
Risk warning: the rise in raw materials has caused corporate earnings to be less than expected; the supply of automotive chips has not improved as expected; and the demand for automobile consumption has not met expectations.
First, the tracking of the economy
1.1 Monthly data: production and sales are better than expected, the independent market share has increased and the high growth trend of new energy has continued
This week, the China Automobile Association released domestic automobile production and sales data in January, and domestic automobile production and sales in January 2022 reached 2.422 million units and 2.531 million units, down 16.7% and 9.2% respectively, and up 1.4% and 0.9% year-on-year, respectively, of which passenger car production and sales reached 2.077 million units and 2.186 million units, down 17.8% and 9.7% respectively, and up 8.7% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively. Production and sales of commercial vehicles totaled 345,000 units, down 9.3% and 5.5% sequentially and 25.0% y/y, respectively. In addition, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles in January reached 452,000 units and 431,000 units, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively.
By brand, a total of 1.004 million new cars were sold in January, down 11.7% month-on-month and 15.9% year-on-year, and its market share increased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year to 45.9%.
We believe that the data is better than market expectations, mainly because: (1) this year's Spring Festival in early February (earlier than last year) superimposed regional epidemic impact, which in late January automobile consumer demand has been disturbed, passenger car sales under a high base increased year-on-year; (2) chip supply improvement trend continued, car companies sales higher than production, the end of last year's peak season stock inventory has been digested; (3) the market share of independent brands continues to increase, new energy vehicle production and sales continue to double the high growth trend.
In terms of inventory, in January, the inventory of manufacturers fell by 110,000 vehicles, and the channel inventory fell by 90,000 vehicles; January of the calendar year is an important node for inventory removal, and this year's inventory removal due to the industry's "lack of core" is slightly worse than in previous years, but it has tended to be in a normal state.
1.2 Weekly data: Post-section replenishment requirements may be initiated
According to incomplete statistics[1] of the passenger car association, from February 14 to 20, the retail sales of passenger cars were 329,000 units, an increase of 67% year-on-year and 32% from the previous month; wholesale vehicles were 433,000 units, an increase of 142% year-on-year, and 32% from the previous month. In the first three weeks, the cumulative retail sales of 670,000 vehicles, -5% year-on-year, -47% month-on-month; the cumulative wholesale of 790,000 units, +26% year-on-year, -33% month-on-month.
From the perspective of the retail market, with the arrival of the car purchase period before the opening season, the retail sales of the relative pre-holiday hot period have risen to 70% level, and the market demand after the Spring Festival has picked up better; from the perspective of manufacturers' wholesale, due to the early shutdown of production before the January festival, the channel inventory is still at a low level, and the dealers in February have a higher demand for replenishment, so the manufacturers are grasping the resumption of work after the holiday to deliver orders, and the production capacity level recovers rapidly, bringing about a rapid recovery in wholesale sales.
[1] The data caliber is the preliminary mapping of the association, and the data in the first week affected by the Spring Festival is almost zero and difficult to be accurate, so it is treated as an average, and the actual data released is subject to the final release of data.
Second, market tracking
2.1 Index Trend: Passenger car and parts sector markets have been boosted
The SW Automotive Industry Index rose or decreased by 0.2% /10.9% this week/ytd, respectively, compared with 0.2pct/-3.7pct in the previous week. In the second-tier industries related to the automotive sector, the passenger car/commercial vehicle/auto parts sector rose or fell by +0.1%/-2.1/+0.0% respectively this week, and the year-to-date increase or decrease was -11.5%/-13.4%/-10.5%.
2.2 Industry Valuation: Year-to-date sector valuations have declined
As of February 25, the PE (TTM) of the SW automotive industry was 28.24 times, a slight decline compared with 28.32 times last week, compared with 31.47 times at the beginning of the year; in the SW secondary industry sub-sector, the PE (TTM) of passenger cars, commercial vehicles and auto parts was 39.13, 28.58 and 25.92 times respectively, which have fallen to varying degrees this year.
3. Industry information
3.1 Raw material prices: the price of aluminum ingots has risen by a large margin year-to-date, and this week's high volatility has fallen
As of February 25, 2022, the Wind Commodity Index shows that the price of aluminum is about 22500 yuan / ton, down about 300 yuan / ton this week, down 1.31%; up about 10.31% from the beginning of the year, the current aluminum price shows a high shock trend. Steel, natural rubber, plastics and glass were 4767, 14029, 8796 and 1893 yuan / ton this week, up or down 8.28%, -5.71%, 2.98% and 10.39% respectively from last week.
3.2 Industry News
3.3 Tracking of Listed Companies
This article is selected from the WeChat public account "Cheyu", authors: Cheng Xiangqi, He Junyi, Chen Huaishan, Yang Yaoxian, Zhitong Financial Editor: Xie Qinghai.