Zhitong Finance APP was informed that CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a series of in-depth reports on lithium battery equipment, according to calculations, the installed demand for lithium batteries in Europe and the United States in 2025 is 667GWh, 827GWh and 1004GWh under pessimistic, neutral and optimistic assumptions. At that time, the local lithium battery production capacity in Europe and the United States is expected to be 547GWh, and the corresponding installed capacity gaps are 229GWh, 389GWh and 566GWh, respectively. Domestic 2025 lithium battery installed capacity demand in pessimistic, neutral, optimistic assumptions are 646GWh, 750GWh, 864GWh, the current head battery enterprises in the domestic domestic 2025 capacity planning has exceeded 3TWh, can cover the domestic installed capacity demand.
The domestic lithium battery demand superimposed on the installed capacity gap in Europe and the United States will constitute the satisfactory production capacity of domestic lithium batteries and the corresponding investment demand for lithium battery equipment. According to estimates, under the pessimistic, neutral and optimistic assumptions, the domestic consensual production capacity in 2025 will be 1459GWh, 1899GWh and 2384GWh, respectively. The corresponding lithium battery equipment demand in 2022-2025 is 1209GWh, 1649GWh and 2134GWh, respectively.
In addition, with the enhancement of the competitiveness of lithium battery equipment in the mainland, we have seen the logic of the equipment going to sea, bringing about incremental demand from overseas. Domestic lithium battery equipment companies began to enter the supply chain of power battery companies in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States, such as Hangke Technology (688006.SH) occupies an important share in the back-end equipment of LG and SK, and leading intelligence (300450.SZ) enters LG, Northvolt, ACC and so on. In 2023 and beyond, the expansion of production capacity of European and American battery companies will accelerate, and it is expected to purchase domestic equipment on a larger scale, and enterprises with the logic of going to sea can obtain better growth.
The main views of CSCI Securities are as follows:
The high growth of global new energy vehicle sales and power battery installed capacity has driven equipment demand
Domestic new energy vehicle sales and penetration rate: In December 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 498,000 units, an increase of 113.9% year-on-year. In the whole year of 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.521 million units, an increase of 157.5% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 13.4%, of which the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars was 14.8%.
Domestic power battery installed capacity: In December 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in mainland China was 26.2GWh, an increase of 102.4% year-on-year. From January to December 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in mainland China totaled 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year.
Global new energy vehicle sales and penetration rate: In November 2021, the number of new energy passenger car registrations was 720,000 units, an increase of 72% year-on-year, and the penetration rate reached 11.5%. From January to November 2021, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 5.57 million units, and the penetration rate increased to 8.1%.
Global power battery installed capacity: In November 2021, catheter times (300750.SZ), LG, BYD (01211), Panasonic, SK On power battery installed capacity of 12.1, 5.5, 3.6, 2.9, 1.9GWh, respectively, the market share was 36.7%, 16.7%, 10.9%, 8.8%, 5.8%. From January to November 2021, the installed capacity of CATL, LG, Panasonic, BYD and SK On power batteries was 79.8, 51.5, 31.3, 22.5 and 14.6GWh, respectively, with market share of 31.8%, 20.5%, 12.5%, 9.0% and 5.8% respectively.
Major power battery companies expand production tracking
On December 30, 2021, CATL announced that it intends to invest in the construction of the seventh to tenth phase of the power battery Yibin Manufacturing Base in Sanjiang New Zone, Yibin City, Sichuan Province through its wholly-owned subsidiary Sichuan Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of no more than RMB 24 billion. According to public information statistics, it is estimated that the power battery production capacity of CATL will be 837GWh (including joint ventures) in 2025.
On December 8, 2021, Hive Energy held the second Battery Day press conference, at which the "leading bee 600" strategy and four supporting strategies for 2025 were released, announcing that the company will occupy 25% of the global market share in 2025 and challenge the goal of 600GWh global production capacity (previously, more than 200GWh). At the same time, a new category of short knife batteries has been launched in terms of products, and electric global short knives will be implemented in the future.
On 29 December 2021, the CSRC disclosed that it had received the "Approval of Overseas Initial Public Offering of Shares (Including Ordinary Shares, Preferred Shares and Other Stocks and Derivative Forms of Shares)" from China Innovation Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., and That China Innovation Airlines would officially launch its IPO in Hong Kong. The infusion of future capital will help its expansion plans of 500GWh in 2025 and 1000GWh in 2030.
On November 30, 2021, the Korean exchange said that the LG EnergySolution IPO had received preliminary approval or was listed at the end of January 2022. The IPO raised up to $10.8 billion to support its planned capacity of 430GWh in 2025.
Lithium battery equipment dynamic tracking
Lithium battery equipment bidding: After October 2021, Hive Energy, Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other battery companies have different scales of lithium battery equipment bidding.
Trend updates for laminated devices: With the advancement of blade batteries, short-blade batteries and 4680, the penetration rate of laminated technology continues to increase. In the middle of the equipment layout enterprises such as Pilot Intelligence, Kerui Technology, Winhe Technology, Li Yuanheng, etc. have successively launched iterative products of laminated equipment from different routes.
Tandem into trend update: Tandem into a cost advantage, penetration rate will continue to increase.
4680 large cylinder trend update: battery companies accelerate the layout of large cylinders. At present, Tesla's self-supply, Panasonic, BAK, and Ewell lithium energy have made relatively good progress in the promotion of large cylinders, and it is expected that mass production products can be seen in 2022.
Risk factors
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has not increased than expected; the capacity expansion of battery factories has not been as expected; and the price of equipment has continued to decrease.
This article is compiled from "High-end Manufacturing Lv Juan Team", author: Lv Juan; Zhitong Finance Editor: Huang Xiaodong.
![Metaverse alchemy | 7 levels of the meta-universe industry chain: who is expected to be the first to explode[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)