Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
Recently, the global stock market has fluctuated sharply due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and A shares have not been spared. Although the single-day trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded one trillion yuan for many consecutive days, some investors are still worried that A shares will continue to fluctuate sharply due to external factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Fed's interest rate hikes.
However, before that, the mining index (399232) rose for 4 consecutive weeks, opening at 2391.26 points after the Spring Festival on February 7, reaching 2876.73 points intraday on February 28, and rising 485.47 points in February, a cumulative increase of 20%, becoming a phenomenon-level sector of the month.
Since the beginning of this year, the mining index has been booming, due to the excellent performance of the mining industry in 2021. According to media reports: "According to the industrial category, in the three categories of 'mining', 'manufacturing' and 'electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply', the performance of 'mining' is eye-catching. ”
According to the report: "The industrial data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that among the above three categories, the mining industry's revenue of 5704.87 billion yuan is the lowest, less than the 11278851 billion yuan and 9429.26 billion yuan of the latter two, but its profit growth rate is the highest, reaching 190.7%, far higher than the 31.6% of the manufacturing industry of large revenues." ”
Why is the mining industry so profitable in 2021? The reason is that there was a general increase in global commodity prices last year, and driven by this trend, the profits of upstream mining and raw material manufacturing have increased significantly. However, some investment institutions believe that "if 2021 is a year of rebound for metals and mining commodities, then prices will be balanced in 2022." ”
Proponents of this view put it: "Recently, the relevant departments have intervened. On February 15, the National Development and Reform Commission said through the public account that the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the Futures Department of the Securities Regulatory Commission recently held a joint meeting to learn more about the changes in port inventories of iron ore trading enterprises and their participation in iron ore spot and futures trading, and reminded relevant enterprises not to fabricate and publish false price information, not to fabricate and disseminate price increase information, not to hoard, not to maliciously speculate, and not to inflate prices. ”
On February 23, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a message saying: "In view of the recent overall stability of supply and demand in the iron ore market, port inventories continued to rise to a multi-year high, but the price rose sharply, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration of Market Regulation recently jointly organized the Port Association and some port enterprises to hold a special meeting to study the work of significantly shortening the free storage period of iron ore in trading enterprises, increasing the cost of port hoarding, and preventing excessive hoarding. Guide port companies to urge iron ore trading enterprises to release excessive stocks and restore to reasonable levels as soon as possible. ”
The National Development and Reform Commission said: "We will work with relevant departments to further strengthen market supervision, resolutely and severely punish the fabrication and dissemination of price increase information, hoarding, price gouging and other violations of laws and regulations, effectively maintain the normal order of the market, and ensure the stable operation of iron ore prices." ”
With the relevant authorities strengthening supervision, what is the future of the mining industry? Some professionals have proposed: "Key mineral materials are expected to continue to rise." ”
On February 22, local time in the United States, the US government announced the latest round of investment projects for mining important strategic minerals in the country. According to media reports: "According to the definition of 'key minerals' in the United States, such as rare earths, lithium, cobalt, etc. are included in this list." These materials can not only be used to produce computers, household appliances and other equipment, but also for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, solar panels and other important carriers of clean energy transformation. ”
"In the coming decades, global demand for these key minerals will increase 4-6 times, and demand for battery materials such as lithium and graphite will increase by 40 times," the White House said in a statement. On the same day, the U.S. Geological Survey also released the 2022 Final List of Key Minerals, adding 15 commodities to the initial 2018 version.
"The U.S. approach aims to reduce the dependence of domestic supply chains on foreign critical raw materials," some professionals pointed out. Because imports mean that the supply of these minerals will be affected by price fluctuations, geopolitics, and even the risk of supply disruption, the release of a series of investment projects in key minerals in the United States can be seen as a key step in the reshaping of the supply chain in the United States. ”
Recently, affected by external factors such as the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, regardless of sectors, valuations, and fundamentals, all of them are declining, and mining indices are naturally not spared. However, professionals believe that "at present, the mainland is vigorously integrating resources, including the integration effect of rare earth resources has been very significant." The integration of resources by countries will make the bull market for key mineral materials last for a very long time. ”
In February, even as the A-share market contracted, the mining index rose for four weeks, when did it rebound after the recent decline? We will have to wait and see.
(Image source: Internet)