On January 18, Times Electric Service, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CATL, released the power exchange service brand EVOGO (Lexing Power Exchange) online, as well as the overall solution for power exchange composed of three major products of "power exchange block, quick change station and APP".
Among them, the power exchange block refers to the exclusive modular "chocolate" mass production battery block developed for the power exchange in the Ningde era, which is specially developed and mass produced for the realization of shared power exchange. The supporting substation is launched to achieve an automated power exchange process. In addition, a supporting one-click power exchange APP has been developed, and users can choose the number of power exchanges according to their own battery life needs and rent electricity on demand. CATL said that the power exchange service will be open to all car companies and can be compatible with various models such as A00-class to logistics vehicles.
For the Ningde era to enter the power exchange market, Weilai Automobile said that investing resources in the construction of electric vehicle energy infrastructure is beneficial and necessary to promote the popularization of intelligent electric vehicles and promote the development of the transportation field in the direction of low-carbon environmental protection. At present, the most important competition is the competition between electric vehicles as a whole and fuel vehicles, so all innovative business models that are conducive to the convenience of electric vehicle owners and travel are good news.
It is understood that the replacement battery will adopt the latest CTP technology of the Ningde era, a single battery can provide a range of about 200 kilometers, and can adapt to the pure electric platform developed by 80% of the world's 80% that has been listed and will be listed in the next 3 years.
New energy vehicle sales increased by 1.6 times The replacement market ushered in opportunities
In 2021, under the influence of the global epidemic, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland will still show explosive growth. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, the mainland will sell 3.521 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years, and the market share will reach 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that it is expected that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5.5 million units in 2022, and the penetration rate will reach about 25%.
Huaan Securities said that the production and sales of new energy vehicles are growing highly, and the production capacity of battery manufacturers will be released, which is expected to usher in a good situation of rising volume and price. It is estimated that the global installed capacity of power batteries will reach 450GWh in 2022, and the domestic installed capacity will reach 230GWh.
In addition, the substation is also continuing to be built and expanded. According to data from Orient Securities, by 2025, the number of domestic power replacement models is expected to reach about 5 million; by 2030, this number may be close to 40 million. From this point of view, by 2025, about 22,000 substations will be landed. At that time, the size of the entire equipment market will reach 70 billion, the operating market size is expected to touch 263.1 billion, and the average annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 is even expected to exceed 100%.
In addition to the sales increase of about 2.154 million new energy vehicles in 2021, according to the surging news, in the next few years, the entire industry will still grow at an annualized doubling rate. It can be said that the unexpected start of electric vehicles has paved the way for the commercial operation of the replacement power station. For the Ningde era, which was only a battery supplier before, it must have also seen a huge opportunity in the aftermarket of new energy vehicles, and entering the power exchange market can further consolidate the growing industry position of competitors.
At present, the energy source of pure electric vehicles is mainly charging and power exchange. Compared with the charging mode, although the power exchange mode has the characteristics of short single energy replenishment time and high efficiency, it can not only improve the convenience, but also has the advantages of reducing the cost of car purchase and reducing the charging cost by using the peak-valley electricity price difference. According to data from the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, by the end of 2021, the number of charging infrastructure in the mainland will reach 2.617 million units, while the number of replacement power stations will only be 1298.
Due to the differences in power exchange methods and lock-up structures, the current domestic power exchange models are generally still exchanged in the cooperative power station. The power exchange mode has not yet become the mainstream energy replenishment method. Although, as mentioned earlier, the CATL EVOGO power exchange can be adapted to 80% of the pure electric platform developed by the world's listed and listed in the next 3 years, it also requires car companies to cooperate with the development of "chocolate battery" power exchange brackets as a premise, and cannot be shared with existing non-cooperative power exchange models.
According to the analysis of ciccumb research reports, the contradiction of new energy vehicles is becoming increasingly prominent, and the power exchange model is expected to rise rapidly with the advantages of the system. The power exchange model to achieve the whole market scale landing, battery standardization is the premise, the market share has an absolute advantage of the Ningde era or become the core of the entire power exchange industry participants.
A number of enterprises layout power exchange business is not yet profitable
In the power exchange market, we are still facing the dual problems of market competition and commercialization. In 2007, the Israeli company Better Place first proposed the concept of power exchange, and the company filed for bankruptcy in 2013 due to high construction operating costs and less than expected sales of replacement vehicles.
Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, said that the business model of better place's power exchange business does not work because car companies are reluctant to cooperate with it. The battery pack specifications of each car company are different, and the battery is the core resource of the car company, if the third party to do the battery after opening, then the profit of the car company can not be guaranteed. The power exchange business has not found a successful case so far, and this business model is still being explored.
Tesla launched a rapid power change technology in 2013, which shortened the power change time to 90 seconds. However, due to the high cost of power exchange, the inability of special-shaped batteries to be shared across models, the low compatibility of power exchange stations, the low operational efficiency, and the difficulty of integrating the resources of car companies to form a common standard, Tesla has abandoned the technical route and operation mode of power exchange.
In the domestic power exchange market, the current participants mainly include Weilai Automobile, which has chassis power exchange and self-built power station replacement, Shanghai Aodong New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., which serves BAIC New Energy and other car companies, and Hangzhou Botan Science and Technology Engineering Co., Ltd., which has a sub-box power exchange mode. Public data show that in 2021, Weilai Automobile has 789 substations, accounting for 60.8%, Aodong New Energy has 402 substations, accounting for 31.0%, and Hangzhou Botan has 107 substations, accounting for 8.2%.
In 2010, Aodong New Energy has begun to power exchange business. According to relevant announcements, from 2018 to 2020, the revenue of Aodong New Energy was 82.4749 million yuan, 212 million yuan and 190 million yuan, but the net profit in the same period was -186 million yuan, -162 million yuan and -249 million yuan, with a cumulative loss of 597 million yuan in three years. Yang Ye, senior vice president of Aodong New Energy, said that changing power is not an easy business. High construction and operating costs, unclear profit models, and inconsistent battery technical standards are problems in the large-scale promotion of the power exchange model.
In 2014, the former person in charge of the State Grid (863 plan) electric vehicle project left the State Grid, established Hangzhou Botan, and further developed a low-box version of the standard box battery on the basis of the State Grid power exchange. The company's promotion of the sub-box power exchange model, combined with the big travel business, solves the problem of operating costs and energy replenishment efficiency. As of September last year, its official website shows that the technical system and commercial ecology of "vehicle-electricity separation, sub-box power exchange" built by Botan Technology have cooperated with 7 OEMs to develop more than 10 models, covering passenger cars and commercial vehicles.
From the beginning of its establishment, WEILAI Automobile has firmly established the power exchange mode, and began to develop its self-developed power exchange technology in 2017, and in 2018, it has landed the first power station. According to NIO data, as of January 2022, NIO has laid out more than 790 substations nationwide, and plans to expand the number of substations to 1300 by the end of 2022. However, according to interface news reports, in the field of domestic private cars, only Weilai has insisted on the power exchange model for many years, and the heavy asset investment of the replacement power station has also made it difficult for Weilai to break even, and it has not yet begun to make a profit.
In addition, in the field of OEMs, Dongfeng, BAIC, Changan, SAIC, Geely and other enterprises have successively announced the increase in power exchange, while the State Grid, State Power Investment, Sinopec and other national industrial giants have also issued plans, all of which will build more than 4,000 charging and replacement power stations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
Many companies have begun to lay out the power exchange market very early, but the entire power exchange market has just reached its infancy. Huaxi Securities research believes that the current shortcomings of power exchange include: the sharp increase in the cost of substation construction, equipment reliability and battery consistency are not easy to guarantee, technical standards are not uniform, and it is not easy to integrate and coordinate the interests of all parties.
Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, believes that battery suppliers need to consider economic benefits when laying out the power exchange business. At present, the business model in the field of power exchange is not clear. For now, in addition to the Ningde era, which has more funds, it may not be possible for other battery manufacturers to lay out the power exchange business.
Unified power exchange standards Core car companies are difficult to respond
CICC research believes that the power exchange model to achieve the whole market scale landing, battery box standardization is the premise, the market share has an absolute dominant position of the Ningde era will be the most core participants in the entire power exchange industry. Wang Pengbo, a senior expert in the field of new energy vehicles, pointed out that CATL hopes that all brand models can use "chocolate for electric blocks", which is equivalent to providing a third-party standard solution for CATL. If the car company wants to join the replacement power station of the Ningde era, it needs to follow the battery standard it has formulated.
Ding Rui, founder and chairman of Zhichong Technology, said: "Ningde Times was a supplier of weilai and other tram companies a long time ago. Ningde went deeper this time, in fact, it also wants to exert its standardization capabilities and reduce the impact of customized research and development of vehicle companies on costs. ”
In the current car-making industry chain, the automaker is still the absolute protagonist, and the car company can independently choose the model and specification of the power battery. However, if the standards established in the Ningde era are landed, the discourse power of the Ningde era on the electric vehicle industry chain will inevitably be greatly improved. An industry insider said: "It is even possible to participate in the development process of new cars by automakers in advance."
Leading battery standards and unified management are naturally conducive to reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the NINGDE era, and at the same time can stabilize the position of the NINGDE era in the battery industry. However, for car companies committed to the research and development of new batteries, if they choose to adapt to the power exchange mode and standard of the Ningde era, they may lose the right to speak about the development and definition of batteries.
It is reported that in the cooperation list of the NINGDE era power exchange brand EVOGO, there is currently only one CAR, FAW Besturn NAT. The Besturn NAT is a pure electric product developed by the FAW Besturn brand for the travel market such as rental and online car-hailing. In addition to FAW Besturn, no car companies have responded.
Previously, as a power battery giant, NINGDE era has squeezed the profits of downstream OEMs in the context of power shortage. This time, it will expand its business to the territory of downstream car companies, which means that it is competing with OEMs for more profits and discourse. On the one hand, the profit of the battery pack accounts for about 40%-60% of the vehicle cost, once the third party takes over the battery research and development, the main engine factory not only loses the technology, but also may spend more money to buy the battery, which will greatly reduce the profit. On the other hand, the power battery is the most core component of new energy vehicles, if the battery is standardized, it means that the oem of different development paths needs to open the core technology platform to other companies or achieve sharing, and the car company may lose its competitiveness and voice in terms.
In addition, for Xiaopeng, Tesla and other car companies with good sales, they are all laying out super fast charging, and will actively participate in the technical research and development and standard formulation of energy supplementation solutions. For weak car companies with poor sales, product differentiation may be the lifeline of enterprises.
Ding Rui said that whether it is a battery or an energy company, it is actually a supplier of car companies, and the hard binding relationship will not be established. The main problem of power exchange is the acceptance of customers, power exchange technology is not too difficult, the difficulty is whether there are companies willing to make profits.
Zhang Xiang believes that for some car companies with poor sales, by relying on the power exchange business of the Ningde era, they can reduce their own manufacturing costs and simplify the manufacturing process. At the same time, the 'traffic effect' of the Ningde era has also helped to increase the sales of such car companies, and faw besturn, the first automobile brand included in the power exchange system, is an example. However, for most car companies, battery packs are the core components with high profits, and once car companies let third parties enter, it will be difficult to control their core competitiveness. Just like SAIC was unwilling to cooperate with Huawei before, the current OEMs are not willing to hand over the soul of the battery to the supplier.
Some insiders believe that technical power, asset power and resource power will become the three keywords of the development of power exchange mode in the Ningde era, of which battery manufacturers have more technical basis for battery management and operation than main engine factories; and relying on the cycle life of power batteries, through battery leasing and cascade utilization, recycling and other business models will enhance profitability; and it has a broad customer base and diversified application scenarios to enable it to carry out network and ecological operations.
In addition, the construction and operating costs of the current power exchange mode are very high, and the recycling of waste batteries is a very high cost expenditure. Weilai Automobile once estimated that if it is calculated according to the electricity replacement of each car once a week, a replacement power station will radiate about 350 cars to support 50 orders a day and reach the break-even point. The decommissioning and scrapping of batteries is another large expense. From this point of view, the Ningde era may not start to make a profit in the past two years.
Yang Ye said that if the power exchange model is to achieve large-scale promotion and effective operation, the key lies in the three key factors of technology research and development, large-scale construction and good operating model. Perhaps, this is also the key to whether the Ningde era can continue to maintain its dominant position in the increasingly competitive new energy vehicle market.